The Struggle for the Soul of America: Will Trump Leave the Country If He Loses?

For the first time President Trump has publicly contemplated losing the election. At a campaign rally last Friday evening he speculated, “Maybe I’ll have to leave the country” if I lose.[1]

While he probably didn’t realize it, Trump was, in effect, admitting he is guilty of serious crimes, crimes that would land him in prison if he doesn’t leave the country. Fleeing their country is what disgraced dictators do when they are thrown out of office. They escape to avoid being jailed or worse.

The Justice Department has determined that a president can’t be indicted and tried while he is still in office.[2] Trump knows that his only safe place in the nation right now is the White House. Once his presidency ends, Trump will be subject to prosecution, and most likely be found guilty.

Why else would a wealthy businessman like Trump think he would “have to leave the country”? If he were innocent, wouldn’t he want to stay, clear his name and live the rest of his life in his beloved America?

Consider that he has multiple properties in the U.S., including his luxurious Mar a Lago estate in Florida. His business headquarters is in New York. Plus, his whole family lives in the states. There is only one reason Trump would feel he had to leave the country if he loses: to avoid prison.

The Democrats should make Trump’s tacit admission of guilt a central theme of their closing argument in the election. Make it clear that Americans don’t want to re-elect a president who knows he is guilty of egregious felonies against the nation and given the chance will likely commit many more crimes in a second term.

It’s up to all of us to vote him out. Then, before he can leave the country, LOCK HIM UP!

Bruce Berlin, J.D.

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com.

Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/. Join the movement to revive our democracy. Together we can save the soul of America.

[1] https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/10/trump-may-leave-country-if-he-loses-prison-criminal-prosecution.html.

[2] https://www.vox.com/2019/7/24/20708393/robert-mueller-report-trump-olc-justice-department-indictment-charge-sitting-president.

The Struggle for the Soul of America: Everything Must Be on the Table

If Joe Biden and the Democrats win in November, they must resolve to have everything on the table in order to fix our broken political system. Both our electoral and policymaking processes are fundamentally flawed when the desires of the majority of American voters are continually crushed by the minority.

The United States is a democratic republic. But there is nothing democratic about our nation when rampant corrupting influences control our political system: voter suppression, gerrymandering, corporate lobbying, the Electoral College and huge campaign donations, much of which is dark money the sources of which are intentionally hidden from public scrutiny.

Earlier this week, Biden indicated that he was not a fan of adding seats to the Supreme Court, i.e. court packing. At the same time, he noted that the Republicans rush to put the very conservative Judge Amy Coney Barrett on the Court in the midst of a presidential election is a form of court packing.[1] While the Democrats don’t have the votes to block her nomination, they can, and they must, rebalance the Court as well as the entire federal judiciary, if Biden wins and they take back the Senate.

The truth is that Mitch McConnell and the Republicans have been packing the federal judiciary with conservative judges ever since 2014 when they gained the majority in the Senate. During the last two years of the Obama Administration, McConnell blocked Obama’s 105 judicial appointments including Judge Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court. As a result:

“…Trump and McConnell have gotten over 200 federal judges and two Supreme Court Justices through the Senate, meaning over a quarter of all federal judges have been packed into our court system by Trump and virtually 100% of them have been straight and white, the overwhelming majority men.”[2]

But, it’s not just the federal courts that the Republicans have hijacked. Last February Majority Leader McConnell admitted he had 395 bills in his office passed by the House of Representatives that the Senate would not consider. And, 80% of the bills McConnell is now blocking from Senate consideration have bipartisan support.[3]

If Biden wins the election, which is looking likely, and the Democrats take control of the Senate, McConnell’s stranglehold on the legislative process and the federal judiciary will still continue as long as the filibuster remains in place. Once again, the will of the majority will be denied. Just like it has been in two of the last five presidential elections when the president-elect did not win the popular vote.[4]

An overwhelming Democratic victory next month is our only chance of restoring some measure of fairness, racial justice, compassion and common decency in our country. Despite Trump’s extensive efforts to steal the election, I believe that Biden’s chances of winning the election and the Democrats’ taking control of the Senate are good.

The best path to derailing Trump’s scams and ensuring a victory for democracy is a blue tidal wave on Election Day that will make it virtually impossible for Trump to muster the forces needed to overturn the results. The Democrats’ momentum is building. It’s up to us to make sure that it crests on Election Day. So, make a plan and go vote!

Bruce Berlin, J.D.

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com.

Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/. Join the movement to revive our democracy. Together we can save the soul of America.

[1] https://www.commondreams.org/views/2020/10/12/its-time-unpack-court.

[2] Ibid.

[3] https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/08/27/rnc-mitch-mcconnell-has-been-key-confidante-donald-trump/5650153002/.

[4] https://time.com/5579161/presidents-elected-electoral-college/.

The Struggle for the Soul of America: Trump’s Failed COVID 19 Response Is the No. 1 Election Issue

President Trump and his administration “have taken a crisis and turned it into a tragedy…When it comes to the response to the largest public health crisis of our time, our current political leaders have demonstrated that they are dangerously incompetent. We should not abet them and enable the deaths of thousands more Americans by allowing them to keep their jobs.”[1] This perspective is from the editors of theNew England Journal of Medicine, one of the most respected medical journals in the world.

Despite over 210,000 Americans having lost their lives due to the coronavirus, on Monday President Trump told the nation, “Don’t let it dominate you. Don’t be afraid of it. You’re going to beat it. We have the best medical equipment. We have the best medicines….”[2]

Well, that’s easy for Trump to say after receiving the best medical care on the planet at Walter Reed Medical Center following his coronavirus diagnosis last week. “(T)he president’s COVID-19 treatment surpassed what most people would receive. Fewer than 10 compassionate-use requests have been granted for Regeneron’s experimental antibody cocktail,” including Trump. “He would never have gotten access to the monoclonal antibodies if he weren’t the president,” noted Brown University Prof. Rose McDermott who has studied presidential illness.[3]

You or I would have had to pay over $100,000 for the treatment Trump got for free.[4] Actually, in 2016 and 2017, our billionaire president did pay $750 a year in taxes,[5] so his public healthcare wasn’t entirely free. Still, quite a deal, don’t you think?

While Trump receives top-notch healthcare at taxpayers’ expense, he has been doing whatever he can to eliminate healthcare insurance for millions of Americans. On June 25, the Trump Administration petitioned the Supreme Court to find the Affordable Care Act (ACA) unconstitutional.[6]

Incredibly, the Administration’s efforts to gut the ACA is in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic which has infected over seven million Americans and thrown tens of millions off their health care rolls due to lost jobs.

“Dismantling the law wouldworsen racial disparities and make it harder for sick people to get new coverage at a time when COVID-19 is disproportionately impacting Black and Latino Americans and leaving hundreds of thousands with potentially lasting health problems. It would also leave 23 million Americans without health coverage,” according to the Center for American Progress.[7]

Clearly, Trump is not concerned with the healthcare of millions of Americans, particularly when the great majority of them are lower income minorities. At the same time, he had no problem taking care of very wealthy Americans like himself with huge tax cuts that don’t produce significant economic growth,[8] but do significantly increase the national deficit.[9]

But, it gets even darker. Back in February, knowing how dangerous the coronavirus was, Trump downplayed the threat and did nothing to protect the American people.[10] In fact, he was so careless and highhanded regarding COVID 19 that months later Trump and more than 30 of his aides and their contacts contracted the virus. And then, when he returned to the White House from the hospital still carrying the disease, “he immediately removed his mask before entering the building — setting off concern that his behavior may put staffers, complex workers and Secret Service agents at risk.”[11] Of course, his image was much more important than their health and wellbeing.

One last thing. Trump promised to replace the ACA with a much better, “terrific” healthcare plan. After almost four years in office, he has produced no such plan.[12] Once again, Trump has conned the American people. It’s time we put an end to his cruel charade on November 3rd.

Bruce Berlin, J.D.

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com.

Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/. Join the movement to revive our democracy. Together we can save the soul of America.

[1] https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2029812?query=featured_home#article_references.

[2] https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/519740-trump-tells-americans-dont-let-coronavirus-dominate-you-following-his.

[3] https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/10/president-trump-health-insurance-covid/616627/.

[4] https://news.yahoo.com/much-trumps-coronavirus-treatment-cost-130318676.html.

[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_returns_of_Donald_Trump#2020_New_York_Times_reporting

[6] https://time.com/5861290/affordable-care-act-obamacare-trump-biden/.

[7] Ibid.

[8] https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/09/trump-tax-cuts-helped-billionaires-pay-less.

[9] https://www.forbes.com/sites/christianweller/2020/01/29/trumps-wasteful-tax-cuts-lead-to-continued-trillion-dollar-deficits-in-expanding-economy/#4efb589766c4.

[10] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f22A8PWpGY8.

[11] https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/34-people-connected-white-house-previously-infected-coronavirus/story?id=73487381.

[12] https://khn.org/news/back-to-the-future-trumps-history-of-promising-a-health-plan-that-never-comes/.

The Struggle for the Soul of America: Can Biden Turn On Turned Off Voters?

Here’s my main concern regarding Tuesday’s debate. It was so ugly that many undecided and sometimes voters will conclude the election is not worth their time, and just not vote. This plays right into Trump’s campaign strategy. Low voter turnout will help Trump declare victory on election night before all the Democratic mail-in votes are counted.           

If I were advising Biden, here’s what I would have him say to the those turned off voters:

“My fellow Americans. First, I want to say I’m sorry that you were exposed to such a disgraceful presidential debate on Tuesday evening. I tried to maintain a decent, respectful level of discourse with the president, but he continually interrupted me and the moderator, Chris Wallace. The president dragged the discussion down to a new low for presidential debates. Frankly, I was embarrassed for him.

“Since it was nearly impossible for me to get my message across while the president repeatedly talked over me, spewing out lies and distortions, let me now clearly state what I was trying to tell you during the debate:

“I care about the lives of all Americans. In order to get our country back on track, we must have a national plan to beat COVID 19, which has already killed over 200,000 of us. My plan will provide the resources, financial and material, which every state, red and blue alike, needs to safely re-open schools and businesses. We cannot fully restore our economy and get everyone back to work until we have this pandemic under control.

Next, we need to rebuild our economy. That means a living wage for all Americans in jobs that are safe for our workers and our environment. My economic plan will create millions of good-paying jobs in renewable energy, clean manufacturing and affordable healthcare.

“We also need to ensure that all Americans have affordable healthcare. To accomplish that, we must expand the Affordable Care Act to include a public option to bring healthcare costs down and help those Americans who can’t afford private health insurance. We must continue to protect all Americans with pre-existing conditions as well.

“And, we must protect our environment. Global warming is real. If we don’t take strong measures to fight it, the health of the entire planet, and all life, will be endangered. So, I will bring our nation back into the Paris Accords and take further steps to combat climate change.

Next, we need to restructure our political system, so that all Americans are fairly represented. Our current system gives two senators representing a state with 600,000 people the same voting power as the two senators from a state with 20 or 40 million people. The will of the majority is regularly suppressed by Republican senators that represent 15 million people less than their Democratic colleagues.[1]

“A similar situation exists in the Supreme Court where a majority of the justices have been appointed by presidents who were elected by a minority of the electorate. My administration will propose a plan where the majority will not continually be overruled by the minority, whether the issue is healthcare, climate change, energy policy, immigration, income inequality, racial justice or whatever.

“In addition, we need to eliminate the undue influence of Big Money in our political system so that all Americans have equal access to their representatives. That means closing the revolving door between Congress and corporate lobbyists as well as regulating campaign contributions and eliminating super PACs and dark money.

“Finally, we need a voters’ bill of rights guaranteeing all Americans the right to vote and ensuring the integrity of our election system. Your vote should not be under attack from foreign intruders, white supremacists or your own elected representatives.

“This election is critical to safeguarding our democracy. I respectfully ask for your support and urge you to vote to elect a Democratic Senate.

Thank you all, and may God bless America.”

Bruce Berlin, J.D.

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com.

Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/. Join the movement to revive our democracy. Together we can save the soul of America.

[1] https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/01/gop-senators-representing-a-minority-of-americans-are-preventing-a-fair-impeachment-trial/.

The Struggle for the Soul of America: Thwart Trump’s Election Scheme, Vote Early In-Person

In my book, Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America, I wrote that America is at “a crossroads comparable to the one before the Civil War.” That was over five years ago. Before Donald Trump’s lawless, racist, divisive first term as president. Before our country had lost more than 200,000 lives, and counting, in a worldwide pandemic. Before the current economic crash caused millions of Americans to lose their jobs and thousands of businesses to close forever. Before a vandalized Postal Service and a resurgent effort to suppress votes. And, before Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death triggered the current Supreme Court nomination battle.

It’s mind-boggling to say the least! And, yet, we should prepare for it getting even more maddening, cause it very well could according to Barton Gellman in The Atlantic.

I was going to write this week’s blog on how Mitch McConnell’s decision to rush another conservative justice onto the Supreme Court would test the Democrats ability to finally stand up for our democracy and restructure a more representative government, assuming they win the White House and the Senate in November.

But then, I read the soon-to-be published cover story of the November edition of The Atlantic entitled, The Election That Could Break America, and realizedI was putting the cart before the horse. Right now, all of our focus must be on the election itself, not what might come afterward.

In his must-read piece in The Atlantic, Barton Gellman, a three-time recipient of the Pulitzer Prize, writes:

“According to sources in the Republican Party at the state and national levels, the Trump campaign is discussing contingency plans to bypass election results and appoint loyal electors in battleground states where Republicans hold the legislative majority. With a justification based on claims of rampant fraud, Trump would ask state legislators to set aside the popular vote and exercise their power to choose a slate of electors directly. The longer Trump succeeds in keeping the vote count in doubt, the more pressure legislators will feel to act before the safe-harbor deadline expires.”[1]

It can’t be any clearer: Trump plans to win re-election by whatever means necessary. And we need to do whatever it takes to stop him and his Republican enablers.

Gellman suggests “…voting in person after all. More than half a million postal votes were rejected in this year’s primaries, even without Trump trying to suppress them.”[2]

As I advocated in my blog last week, “The best way to avoid this disastrous outcome (of a Trump victory) is for as many Biden supporters as possible to vote early in-person, not by mail. The Democrats need to be winning or at least be very close to a majority on election night, which will make it more difficult, if not impossible, for Trump to claim victory.”[3]

So, vote early in-person, and make sure to urge all your friends, family and colleagues to vote early in-person as well, especially those who live in battleground states.

Bruce Berlin, J.D.

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com.

Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/. Join the movement to revive our democracy. Together we can save the soul of America.

[1] https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=cr&utm_campaign=oct-cover-actives-digital&utm_content=20200923&silverid-ref=NjI4MjU2NjM2OTI4S0.

[2] Ibid.

[3] https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/.

The Struggle for the Soul of America: In-Person, Early Voting Best Way to Defeat Trump

While mail-in voting may be the safest way to protect yourself from the coronavirus, it may be the riskiest way to protect the country from four more years of a Trump presidency.

Most predictions suggest Trump will be leading on election night since Republicans are much more likely to vote in-person and have their votes counted that night. Forty-eight percent of Democratic voters indicate they will vote by mail. But only twenty-three percent of Republicans intend to mail-in their November election ballots.[1]

Once all the mail-in ballots are counted in the subsequent weeks, Trump could very well lose the election since the great majority of those ballots will presumably be from Biden supporters. But, what if all the millions of mail-in ballots are not counted by the cut-off date?

This year the deadline for all votes to be tallied is December 14, when the Electoral College will meet and determine each candidate’s total number of electoral votes. We all know that Trump will do just about anything to win re-election. That includes demanding recounts and likely challenging the legitimacy, perhaps, of each mail-in ballot, one-by-one, delaying the completion of recounts indefinitely.[2] Consequently, some states may not be able to certify their election results by the deadline.

In 2000, the Supreme Court decided the election before all the ballots were counted. If recounts are delayed by Trump’s legal challenges and the Electoral College does not produce a certified majority of 270 electoral votes in time, the election is determined by the House of Representatives. Under the 12th Amendment to the Constitution, in such circumstances each state casts one vote for president and vice president. Since the Republicans control a majority of the state delegations in the House, Trump could be re-elected by the House of Representatives.[3]

The best way to avoid this disastrous outcome is for as many Biden supporters as possible to vote early in-person, not by mail. The Democrats need to be winning or at least be very close to a majority on election night, which will make it more difficult, if not impossible, for Trump to claim victory. Then the completion of recounts will be important to both campaigns, and delays and interference would be less likely.

Early, in-person voting is a lot safer than voting on election day. Since there are many different dates when one can vote early, lines will be much shorter. I’ve voted early numerous times and have rarely experienced any lines. Thus, if you are wearing a mask and social distancing, early voting can be quite safe.

Early, in-person voting can save our democracy. The earlier the better. And, be sure to tell your friends and family: Vote early, in-person!

Bruce Berlin, J.D.

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com.

Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/. Join the movement to revive our democracy. Together we can save the soul of America.


[1] https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/08/18/election-2020-biden-voters-twice-likely-vote-mail-survey-finds/3394795001/

[2] https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-could-huge-number-mailed-154542232.html

[3] https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-could-huge-number-mailed-154542232.html

The Struggle for the Soul of America: It’s Not Just About Trump; The Election is About Us!

Donald Trump thinks everything is about him.  And many people do believe the election is all about him. Afterall, every day the news is filled with another Trump lie or political gambit made for the purpose of advancing his re-election.

Most recently, we learned from Bob Woodward’s new book, Rage, that Trump admitted he downplayed the coronavirus despite knowing the dangers it posed. He defended his decision stating he did not want to cause a panic among the American people.[1] But, Trump followed his deception with more unfounded claims that the coronavirus would disappear before summer.[2] Fearing the spreading virus would hurt his re-election prospects, Trump toned down the looming threat rather than taking steps to protect the American people.

Clearly, Trump’s performance as president is a major factor in the November election. Has he done a good enough job to deserve a second term? Or, is Trump so corrupt and dishonest that he must be rejected on election day? Most Americans have strong opinions, one way or another, about this. 

What kind of country do we want to live in?

But I believe the election is really about us, “We, the people.“

What kind of country do we want to leave to our children and grandchildren?

And, most importantly, what are we willing to do, to sacrifice, right now to ensure that the United States survives as a democracy that represents and serves all the people?

In other words, what will we do between now and November 3 in answering these questions? We can sit on the sidelines, saying we can’t do anything that will really make a difference. Or, we can work to make sure we have a government that represents us and our interests?

If your answer is, get to work, I want to reiterate what I said in my last post. It’s that important. (See https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/.) I explained how average voters like you and me could have a true impact on the outcome of the election by engaging in Political Moneyball. That is a method of leveraging the power of small donors and/or a relatively small number of voters.[3] If you haven’t read last week’s blog post, I encourage you to go back and check it out.

According to Princeton Prof. Sam Wang’s Moneyball 2020 approach, our efforts in the presidential race would have the most impact in Nevada, Arizona and North Carolina. Plus, Senate races where we can make a big difference are in Alaska, South Carolina and Kansas.[4] Volunteer to make phone calls or give a donation in these races.

Make a date. Put it on your calendar for this week to contact one or more of these organizations where your support could alter the outcome in a critical campaign:

Bruce Berlin, J.D.

Make a date. Put it on your calendar for this week to contact one or more of these organizations where your support could alter the outcome in a critical campaign:

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com.

Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/. Join the movement to revive our democracy. Together we can save the soul of America.


[1] https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/09/trump-bob-woodward-book-411225

[2] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/04/28/yet-again-trump-pledges-that-coronavirus-will-simply-go-away/?arc404=true

[3] https://www.rawstory.com/2020/08/dont-waste-your-money-trying-to-beat-mitch-mcconnell-play-democracy-moneyball-instead/

[4] https://election.princeton.edu/2020/08/09/whats-more-important-than-a-presidential-probability/

The Struggle for the Soul of America: Political Moneyball, A Winning Ticket

I get it. People are angry, afraid, even depressed, about what’s happening in our country and with the election. I have those feelings at times as well.  As we are living in extremely challenging times, these emotions are completely understandable.

What I have a hard time with is how people are responding to their feelings about what’s happening in our country. More times than I can count, I’ve heard, “I don’t know what to do.”

When your house is on fire, you don’t allow your fear or despair to immobilize you. You take action despite your scared or depressing feelings. Well, our country is on fire and we must act now, regardless of our feelings, in order to save our democracy before it burns to the ground.

I have learned through the experts and my own experience that an effective antidote to fear and anxiety is action. Doing something rather than hanging out with my fearful thoughts can take me out of my downward spiral and toward a more positive feeling about the future and my role in creating it.[1]

So, how can we collectively apply this remedy to our anxiety regarding the current election? A central source of our fear is Trump winning in November, destroying American democracy, and having four more years to establish an authoritarian government in our country.

While there are many actions we can take to help Biden and the Democrats win in November, I want to focus on one that may be the most effective. It’s a new take on “Moneyball.” Moneyball was originally a strategy developed to win in major league baseball by using smart statistics.  In political terms, it’s used to identify undervalued candidates as a way of leveraging the power of small donors and/or a relatively small number of voters.[2] In other words, where can we get the most bang for our buck?

Sam Wang is a Princeton neuroscientist who also founded the Princeton Election Consortium. Using Political Moneyball, he explains that a close race in a small state is where a small donation or a small number of voters could have the greatest impact on an election outcome.

For example, Prof. Wang compares the race in Kentucky between Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell and Democrat Amy McGrath with the Senate race in Montana between incumbent Republican Steve Daines and Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock. McConnell is a well-funded incumbent who appears to have a large lead in a solid red state. Donating $100 to McGrath’s campaign is not likely to make much of a difference.

On the other hand, Bullock and Daines are in a tight race in a low population state. Since campaigning is less expensive in Montana, your $50 or $100 donation will go further there in convincing a small number of voters to provide the “tipping-point support” for Bullock, putting him in the Senate. Not only is that outcome more likely than a McGrath win, but it also provides a better chance of the Democrats regaining the majority in the Senate.[3]

Prof. Wang’s Moneyball 2020 approach also indicates where our efforts in the presidential race would have the most impact. Those states are Nevada, Arizona and North Carolina. Other Senate races where a little will go a long way are in Alaska, South Carolina and Kansas.[4]

Here’s our chance to truly make a difference. Volunteer to make phone calls or give a donation in these states’ presidential races and Senate campaigns. We don’t have to be a Super PAC to have a real impact. Political Moneyball may just be our winning ticket.

Bruce Berlin, J.D

[1] https://video.search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?fr=yhs-sz-001&hsimp=yhs-001&hspart=sz&p=evidence+that+antidote+to+fear+is+action#id=8&vid=e0d1fe1bfa24ceb52155ae570bb88c19&action=view

[2] https://www.rawstory.com/2020/08/dont-waste-your-money-trying-to-beat-mitch-mcconnell-play-democracy-moneyball-instead/

[3] Ibid.

[4] https://election.princeton.edu/2020/08/09/whats-more-important-than-a-presidential-probability/

The Struggle for the Soul of America: It’s the Fourth Quarter

The fanfare of the national conventions is over. We’re now entering the fourth quarter. The game – the most important election of our lifetime — is on the line.

So much is riding on the outcome of November’s election. From the survival of our democracy to our ability to confront climate change to racial justice to conquering the coronavirus and saving tens of thousands of lives, and more. It’s mind-boggling!

Time to bring in the A team. And, that’s all of us.

Are you ready to get out there and give it your all? Because that’s what it’s going to take to beat this corrupt president and his enablers. We know what we are up against: Trump and a Republican Party that will lie, cheat and do just about anything to win and remain in power.

It’s time we played offense. We can’t just keep defending the USPS or our right to vote, or whatever Trump decides to attack tomorrow. We need to work together to fix our election process and guarantee the right to vote for all Americans.

LeBron James, the star of the Los Angeles Lakers, has the right idea. First, he launched the More Than A Vote coalition (https://www.morethanavote.org/) to combat systemic, racist voter suppression by educating, energizing and protecting the Black vote. One of the organization’s initiatives is creating safe, socially distanced voting precincts in cities with large minority populations by working with owners of stadiums and arenas to open their sites for voting this fall.[1]

Most recently, James is helping spearhead a multimillion-dollar effort to recruit poll workers in Black electoral districts ahead of November’s elections. The project focuses on attracting poll workers through a paid advertising campaign and a corporate partnership program that encourages employees to volunteer.[2]

James and his team are asking all of us to help by volunteering to work the polls on Election Day. He’s encouraging everyone to help educate, energize and protect Black voters however we can.

Another way to get involved is by working with a voters’ rights organization like When We All Vote (https://www.whenweallvote.org/) in the most vulnerable communities. When We All Vote is a non-partisan group launched in 2018 by co-chairs Michelle Obama, Tom Hanks, Lin-Manuel Miranda, Janelle Monae, Chris Paul, Faith Hill and Tim McGraw.[3] Its mission is to increase participation in every election and close the race and age voting gap by changing the culture around voting, harnessing grassroots energy, and working in strategic partnerships to reach every American.

A final course of action, one that I’m choosing, is to work in one of the battleground states where the election is likely to be decided. This year there are as many as eleven states up for grabs, including two of New Mexico’s neighbors, Arizona and Texas.[4] With your phone and computer, you don’t even have to leave home to make a difference. If you want to make calls to voters in swing states, here’s a link to sign up: https://www.mobilize.us/dailykos/event/291103/?link_id=1&can_id=2f6a8fdbd4b45d218a8ceaf1fe99a47a&source=email-re-humiliate-trump-make-national-phone-calls-to-voters-in-battleground-states&email_referrer=email_904518&email_subject=re-humiliate-trump-make-national-phone-calls-to-voters-in-battleground-states

The fourth quarter clock is starting. Grab your phone and your computer and get in the game of our lives. Together we can win this election for democracy!

Bruce Berlin, J.D.

[1] https://theundefeated.com/features/more-than-a-vote-a-letter-to-fans-to-fight-black-voter-suppression/

[2] https://fox59.com/news/politics/lebron-james-helps-launch-multimillion-dollar-effort-to-recruit-poll-workers-ahead-of-elections/

[3] https://www.whenweallvote.org/

[4] https://electoralvotemap.com/2020-battleground-states/

 

The Struggle for the Soul of America: Trump Is Rigging the Election, But We Will Stop Him

Trump and his Republican enablers are hard at work destroying our democracy. They are rigging the election in plain sight.

Without any evidence, Trump is laying the groundwork for disputing the election results by claiming that mail-in voting leads to widespread fraud.[1] He has even suggested the country may need a “do over” election since he contends that the only way he will lose is if the election is rigged.[2] Still, election experts state that “election fraud is extremely rare in all instances.”[3]

In June, Trump appointed a Republican Party megadonor, Louis DeJoy, as Postmaster General. With major investments in competing postal businesses, DeJoy’s directing the USPS is a huge conflict of interest.[4] Now he’s aiding his private investments, as well as Trump’s re-election efforts, by initiating debilitating changes at the postal service.

DeJoy has ordered the removal of hundreds of mail-sorting machines, aimed at slowing down mail service and jeopardizing mail-in voting around the country.[5] Seven such machines were recently removed from just one postal center alone in West Philadelphia, a Democratic stronghold.[6] He has also had mailboxes removed in parts of New York, Pennsylvania, Oregon and Montana, making it more difficult for people to vote by mail.[7]

But, it’s even worse than that. Former Republican National Committee chairman, Mike Duncan, is now the chair of USPS’ six-man board of governors—which rubberstamped DeJoy’s appointment. He is also the current chairman of the Senate Leadership Fund— a $100 million Republican super PAC. Plus, Duncan has “myriad links to companies with a direct interest in the postal service policy he oversees.”[8]

DeJoy has agreed to testify before Senate and House committees tomorrow and early next week to answer for his actions. And, while he has said that he will suspend his postal service cutting efforts until after the election, DeJoy stated that he has no intention of granting necessary overtime or replacing the mail sorting machines or mailboxes that have been removed.[9] So, can this Trump megadonor be trusted with our mail-in votes?

Not according to House Majority Whip James Clyburn. On Tuesday Rep. Clyburn stated that he is “not one bit” reassured by DeJoy’s promise that cost-cutting measures will be postponed until after the November election, ensuring that mail-in ballots are delivered on time.[10] One has to wonder what DeJoy will do come October when Trump, still trailing in the polls, pressures him.

Meanwhile, Trump’s Republican cohorts in the Senate are still refusing to provide funding so that the USPS can deliver mail-in ballots on time and the election process can be protected in each state.

If we are to save our democracy, we all must act to protect the postal service and our sacred right to vote. Here’s what we can do:

  1. Pressure DeJoy to restore all the equipment, services and personnel. Contact him at Louis DeJoy’s email is dejoy@usps.gov.
  2. Pressure the USPS board of governors — all of whom are Trump appointed and supported the $25 billion USPS funding now being held up by Senate Republicans — to require DeJoy to immediately restore all equipment, services and personnel. Contact them:
  1. Call Speaker Pelosi (202-225-4965) and your congressperson (Rep. Ben Ray Lujan at (202) 225-6190, Debra Haaland at (202) 225-6316, and Rep. Xochitl Torres Small 202-225-2365). Urge them to immediately pass a stand-alone bill providing $25 billion to ensure the USPS is fully operational as well as $3.6 billion for voter protection for the states to ensure all Americans can vote safely and every vote is counted in the November elections.
  2. Vote early, preferably in-person. Early voting in-person will guarantee your vote will be counted.
  3. If you need to vote by mail, the earlier you request your mail-in ballot and return it, the more likely your ballot will arrive on time and be counted. Check with your county clerk’s office for important deadlines.
  4. Organize to get others to vote early. Call/email everyone you know and urge them to vote early.
  5. Provide rides for others without vehicles to vote early. Check with your local party HQ to see if it is organizing rides.
  6. Assist others in obtaining and returning their mail-in ballots.
  7. Volunteer at your local party HQ or with an organization working on voter protection, such as:

The time to act is now. The survival of our democracy depends on all of us doing our part!

Bruce Berlin

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com.

Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/. Join the movement to revive our democracy. Together we can save the soul of America.

[1] https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/criticizing-voting-mail-trump-lady-request-mail-ballots/story?id=72371423

[2] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-redo-idUSKCN25E297; https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/512424-trump-the-only-way-we-are-going-to-lose-this-election-is-if-the

[3] https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/07/829323152/fact-check-is-mail-ballot-fraud-as-rampant-as-president-trump-says-it-is

[4] https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/08/13/fact-check-postmaster-general-louis-dejoy-invested-competitors/5550480002/

[5] https://news.yahoo.com/postmaster-general-louis-dejoy-121911696.html

[6] https://news.yahoo.com/postal-crisis-ripples-across-nation-160241436.html

[7] https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/08/14/people-are-freaking-out-about-mailbox-removals-postal-service-says-its-routine/

[8] https://www.commondreams.org/views/2020/08/17/stamp-out-trump-attacks-our-postal-service

[9] https://www.thenewcivilrightsmovement.com/2020/08/pelosi-postmaster-general-told-me-he-has-no-intention-of-allowing-overtime-or-replacing-any-equipment-removed/

[10] https://www.yahoo.com/news/james-clyburn-says-he-is-not-one-bit-reassured-by-trump-administrations-reversal-on-postal-service-cuts-232637160.html