(Note: Since my computer was in the shop getting software fixes for some days, there was no blog post last week.)
While it’s still early, the 2024 elections look like a nail-biter. Unless one of them falls seriously ill or Trump ends up in prison before November, the presidential election will most likely be a tight race between President Biden and Donald Trump.
Usually, an incumbent president has an advantage in his bid for re-election. But only a third of those surveyed in a recent ABC News/Ipsos poll approved of President Biden’s job performance — a record low for any president in the last 15 years. Meanwhile, Trump’s approval rating is eight points higher than Biden’s.[1]
Still, Trump’s not in great shape either. A recent poll of Iowa voters conducted days before Monday’s caucuses found 43 percent of those who supported Nikki Haley said they would vote for Biden over Trump in a general election.[2]
Another sign of Trump’s general election weakness is a number of his former staffers speaking out publicly against him. Sarah Matthews, a press aide on Trump’s 2020 campaign and in the Trump White House who resigned on Jan. 6, 2021, noted, “I would support Biden over Trump…I won’t support someone who refused to participate in a peaceful transfer of power, tried to overthrow a free and fair election, and incited a mob to attack the U.S. Capitol.”[3]
At the same time, Biden’s strong support of Israel in its war against Hamas is definitely hurting his re-election chances. In a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, 57 percent of respondents disapproved of his handling of the war.[4] With over 24,000 Palestinian civilian deaths due to Israel’s massive bombings, Biden is being sued for complicity in Israel’s alleged commission of genocide in Gaza.[5]
Biden’s immigration policy at our southern border is also not popular. Many feel that too many poor, illegal immigrants are entering the country.[6] While lower, nagging inflation is yet another issue pulling his approval ratings down.
Then there’s Biden’s age. He sometimes appears unsteady on his feet or unsure of his words. He often does not present a strong leadership image. Two-thirds of Democratic-leaning voters want their party to nominate someone other than Biden for president.[7] Additionally, MSNBC pundit and former Republican Congressman Joe Scarborough noted that every Democrat he has spoken to privately believes President Biden is “too old” to run for reelection.[8]
Though there’s nothing he could do about his age, Biden and his Democratic colleagues seem unwilling or unable to change course regarding some of these other issues. This is particularly true when it comes to Israel. As a result, he is losing a good portion of the youth vote that got him elected in 2020. And they are not just frustrated with Biden, they are actually angry with him.[9]
Both candidates have their work cut out for them. Trump needs to figure out how to convince skeptical Republicans to stick with him. On the other hand, if Biden does not start listening to the people who elected him, he may not only fail to win this critical election, but he may also be responsible for losing American democracy to authoritarian rule.
Bruce Berlin
A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com.
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[1] https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4408318-bidens-approval-rating-drops-to-new-low-poll/#:~:text=In%20an%20ABC%20News%2FIpsos,percent%20approved%20of%20his%20performance.
[2] https://www.yahoo.com/news/biden-may-help-republicans-against-110000920.html
[3] Ibid.
[4] https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/19/us/politics/biden-israel-gaza-poll.html
[5] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/14/us-president-biden-sued-for-complicity-in-israels-genocide-in-gaza
[6] https://cis.org/Arthur/Why-Biden-Implementing-Immigration-Policies-Few-Americans-Favor
[7] https://www.axios.com/2023/09/07/poll-biden-2024-second-term-democrat-voters-cnn
[8] https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4202366-scarborough-says-democrats-privately-say-biden-too-old-to-run/
[9] https://www.vox.com/politics/24034416/young-voters-biden-trump-gen-z-polling-israel-gaza-economy-2024-election
Breaking Big Money's Grip on America 