The Struggle for the Soul of America: Why Biden Might Be a Better Bet This November

No one knows for sure who will win the election this November. It’s still five and a half months away. Much will happen between now and then which could alter the outcome. Here are twelve critical factors that will likely play a role in determining who wins the election.

The Trump court trials

At this point, Trump’s New York hush money trial is probably the only one that will return a verdict before the November election. Despite all the media attention, the case will likely not have a significant impact on the election results, regardless of the outcome. Most voters have already made up their minds about Trump and the verdict will not change many voters’ opinions. At the same time, the strong evidence regarding Trump’s involvement in the January 6^th insurrection could influence swing voters even though that trial will probably not occur before the election.

The Youth Vote

The youth vote will matter. It is a vital component of President Biden’s path to re-election. According to a March Youth Poll by Harvard’s Institute of Politics, “If the presidential election were held today, President Biden would outperform former President Trump among both registered (50% Biden, 37% Trump) and likely young voters under 30 (56% Biden, 37% Trump).” This is true despite Biden’s approval ratings on major issues being in the 20 and 30 percentiles.[1]

The Minority Vote

A recent Pew poll indicates 77% of Black voters say they would vote for Biden, well below the 92% he received in 2020.[2] Only 52% of Hispanic voters say they support the president.[3] That is 14% lower than the Hispanic vote Biden received in 2020.[4] This could be particularly troublesome for the president in swing states with large Hispanic voter populations like Arizona (25%)[5] and Nevada (20%).[6] Democrats need to do more to bolster their support among black and Latino voters.

The Israeli-Hamas War

This war is a real wildcard. Right now, the war is hurting Biden, particularly with the youth and minority voters, and aiding Trump. If Biden can help orchestrate a permanent ceasefire in the next few months, it likely would bring many of those voters back into his camp. If the war drags on into the fall, Biden’s re-election will become more doubtful.

Inflation and the Economy

As for inflation and the economy, it’s not a winner for Biden and the Democrats. These issues are at the top of many voters’ concerns. If inflation goes down significantly, Biden’s electoral stock will go up. Still, inflation is not likely to get any worse, so it shouldn’t make matters more difficult for the president. That is true for the economy as well. However, while the economy has improved significantly, voters for the most part have a negative view of it. Biden needs to showcase how much he’s done to improve people’s lives as well as what more he will do if he’s re-elected.

Immigration Reform and Border Security

The need for immigration reform and border security are issues the Republicans have highlighted. But Trump’s opposition to the bipartisan bill to secure our southern border continues to prevent the implementation of a reasonable solution.[7] Again, Biden and the Democrats must make it very clear to the voting public that Trump and his pawns in Congress are responsible for blocking a good bipartisan bill that would have gone a long way toward securing our southern border and fixing our immigration system.

The Candidacy of RFK Jr.

In a recent poll, the presidential candidacy of RFK Jr. hurts Trump more than Biden by a couple of percentage points.[8] In a close race like this one, it could make a difference. But I doubt it will be as significant as the votes of Nikki Haley’s supporters or suburban women.

Nikki Haley’s Supporters

The fact is that seven swing states will decide this election. In the largest swing state, Pennsylvania, Haley received over 16% of its recent primary vote.[9] That was two months after she had already dropped out of the race. In the purple state of Arizona, Haley got nearly 20% of the Republican primary vote.[10] While Haley just declared she will vote for Trump in November, the Atlantic’s David Frum points out:

“Most of Haley’s supporters voted for her as a way to stop Donald Trump. Haley’s announcement today that she intends to vote for Trump won’t raise their opinion of him; it will only lower their opinion of her.”[11]

It’s a good bet many of the Republican primary voters who voted for Haley in the swing states will not be voting for Trump.

Abortion Rights and Suburban Women

The large segment of the population who have abortion rights high on their list of election issues will bolster the Biden campaign.[12] The battle over the right to an abortion has energized Democrats and will increase voter turnout. It probably is Biden’s best issue. Moderate Republican and Independent suburban women who support abortion rights and are turned off by the corrupt former president will help boost Biden. Together, they could put Biden over the top in those critical swing states.[13]

The Supreme Court

The U.S. Supreme Court has been overtaken by radical justices thanks to Trump’s three appointments to the Court. Along with the other right-wing justices, they are responsible for eliminating the Constitutional right to an abortion.[14] In addition, they are continuously chipping away at our civil and personal rights, like voting rights and gun safety protections. If Trump wins the election, we likely could see more extreme right appointments which would dominate the Court for several decades. This possibility should further energize a broad range of the electorate to vote for Biden and Democratic senators.

The Survival of Democracy

Finally, there’s the overarching matter of saving our democracy. Trump has made it clear that he admires dictators like Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un. He has openly declared his fascist inclinations.[15] We must take Trump at his word. The great majority of Americans support our democratic form of government. Biden and the Democrats must demonstrate that voting for them is the only way to guarantee the future of American democracy.

Despite his shortcomings, Biden is our best and only hope at this point. Putting it all together, he might be a better bet at being re-elected after all.

Bruce Berlin

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com.

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