Donald Trump is finally being held accountable. That is a good thing for democracy and the rule of law. Still, no one knows how Trump’s guilty verdict on all 34 felony counts will affect the November elections. Will it increase his support at the polls this fall? I seriously doubt it. If anything, the guilty finding will likely give a number of undecided voters a reason not to support him. How many go that route could be critical to the final outcome.
That does not mean, however, that those voters will support President Biden. They could stay home or vote for third-party candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. or someone else. Yet, anything that reduces Trump’s vote count should help Biden’s re-election bid.
Here are some other factors arising from the verdict that may significantly affect the election. First up is the sentencing of Trump on July 11. The harsher the sentence the more outraged Trump’s supporters will be. But I still don’t believe it will increase turnout for him in November. Rather, it will likely make the campaign uglier and turn voters off.
As important as Trump’s sentence is, presiding Judge Juan Merchan’s remarks at the sentencing hearing may be just as compelling. While a judge must remain impartial during the trial, he can be very revealing about his reasons for the sentence he is imposing. That is, Merchan can point to Trump’s outrageous behavior, his disrespect for the court and the jury, and his lack of remorse in explaining his decision for Trump’s sentence. The judge’s laying this all out in open court could sway some undecided voters not to support Trump.
Another interesting result of the verdict is how Trump’s team will handle the appeal. Until now, Trump’s strategy has been to delay all court proceedings for as long as possible, hopefully until after November. That would prevent any adverse decision from hurting his election prospects. But now that he has been found guilty, Trump may very well reverse strategies. That is, he might move for a quick appeal on the chance that an appeals court would reverse his guilty verdict before the election. While not likely, a desperate Trump might try to pull that off to improve his chances of being elected.
Then there’s the Republican National Convention beginning four days after Trump is sentenced. Given the strong support for Trump from most Republicans following the jury’s verdict, it appears that Trump will still be the Party’s nominee for president. I can’t believe the convention’s ignoring the verdict and going full tilt for a convicted felon will go over well with swing voters still trying to decide for whom to vote. By the same token, those undecided voters may not be able to stomach voting for other down-ballot Republicans who want a felon to be our next president. It’s hard to imagine how this goes well for Trump and his Republican Party.
Finally, there’s the overriding issue of the survival of American democracy. The Republicans are trying to convince the public that this whole affair is just about politics. As Trump’s former vice president, Mike Pence, put it: “The conviction of former President Trump on politically motivated charges is an outrage and disservice to the nation.”[1] Really?
Isn’t everything Trump does politically motivated to win the presidency, give him authoritarian power, and eliminate any opposition to his authority? Trump’s conspiring with Michael Cohen and others to conceal the fact that he had sex with a porn star while his wife was home caring for their newly born child was motivated by his desire to win the 2016 election. If moderate Republican women and others had known the truth before they voted, Hillary Clinton may very well have been our 45th president. Our world would be a lot different today under those circumstances. But conspiring to conceal facts that could change the outcome of a presidential election is just politics according to most Republicans. Why should the American people care?
Well, the DOJ during Trump’s administration cared enough to prosecute Michael Cohen for the same campaign finance violations. He was found guilty and sentenced to three years in prison.[2] Why shouldn’t the leader of the conspiracy be treated the same way? Biden and the Democrats need to make that perfectly clear to every voter before Trump steals another election.
Bruce Berlin
A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com.
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[1] https://www.yahoo.com/news/disservice-nation-former-vp-pence-154731149.html
[2] https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/michael-cohen-sentenced-3-years-prison
Breaking Big Money's Grip on America 