Bruce Berlin is a retired, public sector ethics attorney. He is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution, and a practitioner of Buddhist meditation. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com.
Saturday’s attempted assassination of Donald Trump will likely make it harder for President Biden to win the November election. And, before Saturday, he already had an uphill battle on his hands. So, I’ve concluded that Biden’s withdrawing from the race and putting Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket is the Democrats’ best path forward to beating Trump.
Abortion rights will be an overriding issue for women in this election. As a pro-choice woman, Harris leading the Democrats would boost their standing with Republican women. In fact, half of Republican women voters think abortion should be legal in all or most cases.[1]
Among all women, Biden and Trump are essentially tied. Harris, on the other hand, beats Trump 50 to 43% with women voters. Harris also runs better than Biden against Trump among people of color, Democrats, Independents, liberals, moderates, and conservatives according to a recent CNN poll.[2]
In a close race, suburban women in swing states may well decide the election. A recent poll found that most suburban women identify as pro-choice and believe that abortion should be legal. This same poll discovered that suburban women feel frustrated with the upcoming presidential election and 60% of them are dissatisfied with the choice of candidates.[3]
Replacing Biden with Harris could eliminate that dissatisfaction for enough women voters to put Harris in the White House. The same is true regarding disaffected younger voters as well as angry Arab Americans, especially in the critical swing state of Michigan, who oppose Biden’s strong support of Israel in its war against Hamas that’s killing thousands of innocent Gazans.
In addition, the attack on Trump makes gun violence a more prominent issue in this year’s election.[4] Democrats believe gun violence prevention may also be a decisive issue with suburban women.[5] As a former prosecutor and California attorney general, Vice President Harris has vital experience in this area and would be a more effective candidate in making the case for both gun violence prevention and abortion rights. This is especially true now that she oversees the White House Office of Gun Violence Prevention.[6]
The fact is suburban women voters are dissatisfied with both Trump and Biden.[7] A younger woman candidate with Harris’s background could energize women voters. Harris also does not have the baggage that Biden has regarding his age, the Israeli-Hamas War, and inflation. It’s time Obama, Clinton, Pelosi, Schumer and Jeffries go to the White House and tell Biden (and Jill) that he must withdraw from the race for the good of our country.
The next four months will be the most critical time for our country since at least the Civil War, if not in the entire history of the republic.
What’s at stake is the survival of American democracy. If Donald Trump is elected president in November, he has assured us that the United States will become an authoritarian country under his control.[1] His MAGA base has taken over the Republic Party and he’s gotten most other members of the party from Mitch McConnell on down to fall in line behind him. This after those same leaders had strongly denounced him after the January 6th insurrection.[2] And now he’s gotten the Supreme Court to back him up as well.
In Trump v. the United States, the Supreme Court sided with Trump over our country, ruling that a former president has absolute immunity from criminal prosecution for actions taken within his “conclusive and preclusive constitutional authority.” The Court also found that a president is entitled to presumptive immunity for all other official acts.[3] And so, Trump (and all presidents), is above the law. This decision further ensures that Trump would have the green light to become a dictator for all practical purposes if he wins the election. The American people cannot allow that to happen.
At the same time, President Biden’s re-election is even more in jeopardy now. While his recent debate performance was a disaster, his post-debate efforts to re-ignite his campaign have only raised more questions about his ability to win in November. And millions of voters are doubting his capacity to preside over the government for four more years. A CNN analysis concluded that Biden, the Democrats, and the entire country are in a growing political crisis.[4]
While Biden insists he’s in the race to stay, the pressure for him to withdraw is intensifying.[5] Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris is becoming the top choice to replace Biden in the race for the White House if Biden does drop out. Party insiders believe that she is better positioned to beat Trump than other possible Democratic nominees.[6] Still, others think an open convention is the way to go.[7]
Ironically, the Supreme Court immunity decision should help Biden or whomever the Democrats ultimately put at the top of their ticket. We already know that a second Trump presidency threatens our democracy. With the Court’s permissive ruling, it becomes an even more frightening danger and the most critical issue in this fateful election.
The question is: Which Democrat is the best messenger to effectively deliver that message to the American people and beat Trump in November? I and a great many other Americans who want to save and strengthen our democracy do not believe Biden is that person. We need a strong, clear voice from a new generation of leaders to call on all Americans to save our democracy from Trump’s authoritarian rule.
It may be Kamala Harris or one of several other prominent Americans, in or out of politics. But time is running out. The Democratic Party, including President Biden, has to come together very soon for the good of our nation. It’s the only party that can and wants to save our democracy. And we, the people, can’t just sit back and watch this movie play out. Call your Senators and Congressperson ASAP and tell them how you feel. Tell them it’s time for a new president from the next generation who will inspire the American people. A leader we can vote for with enthusiasm.
On March 31, 1968, President Lyndon Johnson announced that he would not run for re-election that fall. In his short time as president, Johnson achieved great advancements for the American people, including the Civil Rights Act of 1964, the Voting Rights Act of 1965, and the creation of Medicare and Medicaid. Still, in 1968, the Democratic Party and the country as a whole were very divided by race, class, ideology, and, of course, the Vietnam War.[1]
Despite his noteworthy accomplishments, Johnson’s public approval rating sat at only 36%. He was being challenged by members of his own party as well as a strong Republican candidate, Richard Nixon. Johnson realized the odds of his re-election were poor. As political historian Matthew Dallek explained, “LBJ had become the face of America’s divisions.”[2]
Fifty-six years later, President Biden’s situation is not much different than Johnson’s was. In his one term in the White House, Biden has achieved many good things, including rebuilding our infrastructure, significant gun violence prevention legislation, and combating the climate crisis.[3] Yet, his public approval rating stands at just 37%.[4] Like Johnson, many Democrats don’t want him to run for re-election and he is being challenged by a strong Republican candidate, Donald Trump. Biden has now become the face of America’s divisions as well.
Unlike Johnson, however, President Biden has failed to come to grips with the reality of his situation and the catastrophic consequences facing our country if his Republican opponent wins the presidency. But Thursday evening’s presidential debate was a stark wakeup call for the rest of the Democratic Party. The question is how will the Party respond.
For a hopeful answer, let’s turn to 1974 and the Republican Party’s response to Nixon’s failing presidency. Due to Nixon’s alleged involvement in the Watergate scandal involving a criminal break-in and subsequent cover-up, Nixon lost the support of many in the Republican Party as well as American voters in general. He was about to be impeached by Congress.
On Aug. 7, 1974, the leaders of the Republican Party, U.S. Sen. Barry Goldwater, R-Ariz., U.S. House Minority Leader John Rhodes, R-Ariz., and U.S. Senate Minority Leader Hugh Scott, R-Pa., went to the White House and made it clear to Nixon that his presidency was “doomed.”[5] Two days later, Nixon resigned the presidency.
Granted Biden’s situation is quite different. But what is similar is that Biden has lost the support of a great many members of his party.[6] Biden’s presidency may not be “doomed,” but his chances of re-election could be after his awful performance at Thursday’s debate.[7]
The leaders of the Democratic Party need to do what those Republican leaders did in 1974. Barak Obama, Bill Clinton, former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, Sen. Chuck Schumer, and Rep. Hakeem Jeffries with the support of First Lady Jill Biden must go to the White House and tell President Biden that his re-election is very much in peril, and he needs to withdraw from the race. Nixon said it best when he resigned, “…as President, I must put the interests of America first.”[8]
Unfortunately, two days after Biden’s terrible debate, none of the above-mentioned Democratic leaders are preparing to deliver that message to Biden. In fact just the opposite, they are all rallying around the president despite the fact that “59 percent of independent voters and 47 percent of Democratic voters said Biden should be replaced as the party’s presidential candidate. “[9]
The Democrats are rolling the dice by sticking with Biden. Though it’s an uphill battle, he may still be able to rejuvenate his campaign and beat Trump. And, honestly, they would also be gambling if they chose another candidate to lead the ticket. But selecting a new standard bearer at their convention would energize Democrats and give them a huge opportunity to win over those undecided voters in the swing states that will decide this election.
Yet, the truth is that it’s all up to Biden. He has enough delegates committed to him to secure the nomination if he wants it. What he decides will undoubtedly impact the election, but ultimately the fate of our democracy is in the hands of the American people.
With less than five months until likely the most consequential election in American history, I’ve been trying to figure out what I can do to help save our democracy.
For a while, I considered going to a swing state like Pennsylvania or Arizona and working on the Biden re-election campaign. In which case, I would probably be making phone calls to prospective Democratic voters or going door-to-door. Neither of those motivated me. Nor did I believe my doing them would have any significant impact on the election.
Of course, I could send donations to the Biden campaign and other important races. And I am doing that. But again, I realized that my rather small donations would hardly make any meaningful difference.
That’s not to say that any of the above wouldn’t assist Biden and the Democrats. Every little bit helps advance their campaign toward victory.
Then, the other day I asked myself: what do I like doing that could potentially have some influence on the election? The answer that immediately came to me was working on policy. But what policy?
That same day I read Thomas Friedman’s piece in the NYT, American Leaders Should Stop Debasing Themselves on Israel. Friedman advocated:
“This is ultimatum time. Biden should be telling Israel that it should accept Hamas’s key demand: Totally end the war now and withdraw from Gaza in exchange for the return of all Israeli hostages. Israel cannot think straight while Hamas holds its people.”[1]
Having spent considerable time and energy on U.S. policy toward Israel, I felt Friedman’s article was calling to me. If Biden could get Israel to end the war, it would be a big boost to his re-election prospects.
While I have no illusions that I alone could affect U.S. policy in any area, here was something I believed was worth my time and that I would feel good doing. I have already attended two meetings of a local American Friends of Combatants for Peace committee (AFCFP) which is focused on influencing U.S. policy in the Middle East. One effort proposed at the last meeting was meeting with NM Sens. Heinrich and Lujan and encouraging them to urge the Administration to forcefully push for a permanent ceasefire. Though I had thought I would rather work on the elections than continue participating with this group, suddenly I saw it was my path to making a meaningful contribution to Biden’s re-election as well as to saving our democracy.
AFCFP raises awareness, builds community, and acts to advance the joint efforts of Israelis and Palestinians working for a just peace in Israel and Palestine.[2] If you are interested in joining this effort, email AFCFP at office@afcfp.org, orwrite to greggmanoff@yahoo.com in Santa Fe. And, if this project does not motivate you, with less than five months until the election, find something that does and start working now to save our democracy before it’s too late.
I recently turned 79. Yes, it’s hard for me to believe, but it’s gradually sinking in. For example, I’ve noticed I’m definitely slowing down. As a result, I don’t always get my blog done every week. So, if you don’t get my blog some weeks, you’ll know I’ve slowed down again.
And that brings me to the larger issue of living life in balance. It’s a matter that confronts many of us at different times in our lives. For instance, we may spend too much time on the Internet at the expense of time with our friends and loved ones. Or we work too much and don’t leave enough time for relaxing and enjoying life.
It’s easy to do. We get caught up in one aspect of our lives causing us to ignore another interest or pay less attention to a valued relationship. Sometimes we don’t even realize what we’ve done. Once we do gain awareness, it may take us additional time to get back up to speed with a particular pursuit or to revive a neglected relationship.
Of course, there are many ways we may feel our lives are out of balance. Eating too much, sleeping too little, not getting enough exercise, watching too much TV, not reading enough, or not enough intimacy, to name just a few.
Personally, I feel the need for more time and space for my writing. In addition to my blog, the memoir I’ve been working on for over three years now requires more of my time if I’m ever going to finish it. I also want more time to deepen my relationship with my loving partner. To achieve these goals and get my life in greater balance, I have to figure out what to let go of or at least give less attention to. And that may not be so easy to do. But I’m working on it.
What about you? What do you want to re-balance in your life?
For my male readers, here’s something to help them in this re-balancing effort. A few friends and I are organizing a summer retreat with the theme, Living a Life in Balance. A New Mexican Men’s Wellness gathering, the retreat, with apologies to my female readers, is just for men. It will be held at Story Ranch in Mineral Hill, New Mexico, on the weekend of July 12 to 14. During the event, men will have the opportunity to explore where their lives are in and/or out of balance. It will be a time to step back and take a look at what is and what is not working for them.
In small groups, we will examine how we might get more of what we want in our lives to create greater balance and ease, while reducing or eliminating what we feel burdened by in our lives. You may have a good balance of fun, play, interpersonal connections, joy, quiet time, or whatever. On the other hand, you may feel a bit overwhelmed by too much work, a lack of connection, not enough time with your mate or family, busyness, alone time, or something else.
If you are a man thinking this is an issue worth exploring in your life, we hope you will join us next month. And please encourage other men you know to join us as well. We feel it will be a valuable experience for all. For details and registration, go to https://bit.ly/3yGKaEn.
Donald Trump is finally being held accountable. That is a good thing for democracy and the rule of law. Still, no one knows how Trump’s guilty verdict on all 34 felony counts will affect the November elections. Will it increase his support at the polls this fall? I seriously doubt it. If anything, the guilty finding will likely give a number of undecided voters a reason not to support him. How many go that route could be critical to the final outcome.
That does not mean, however, that those voters will support President Biden. They could stay home or vote for third-party candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. or someone else. Yet, anything that reduces Trump’s vote count should help Biden’s re-election bid.
Here are some other factors arising from the verdict that may significantly affect the election. First up is the sentencing of Trump on July 11. The harsher the sentence the more outraged Trump’s supporters will be. But I still don’t believe it will increase turnout for him in November. Rather, it will likely make the campaign uglier and turn voters off.
As important as Trump’s sentence is, presiding Judge Juan Merchan’s remarks at the sentencing hearing may be just as compelling. While a judge must remain impartial during the trial, he can be very revealing about his reasons for the sentence he is imposing. That is, Merchan can point to Trump’s outrageous behavior, his disrespect for the court and the jury, and his lack of remorse in explaining his decision for Trump’s sentence. The judge’s laying this all out in open court could sway some undecided voters not to support Trump.
Another interesting result of the verdict is how Trump’s team will handle the appeal. Until now, Trump’s strategy has been to delay all court proceedings for as long as possible, hopefully until after November. That would prevent any adverse decision from hurting his election prospects. But now that he has been found guilty, Trump may very well reverse strategies. That is, he might move for a quick appeal on the chance that an appeals court would reverse his guilty verdict before the election. While not likely, a desperate Trump might try to pull that off to improve his chances of being elected.
Then there’s the Republican National Convention beginning four days after Trump is sentenced. Given the strong support for Trump from most Republicans following the jury’s verdict, it appears that Trump will still be the Party’s nominee for president. I can’t believe the convention’s ignoring the verdict and going full tilt for a convicted felon will go over well with swing voters still trying to decide for whom to vote. By the same token, those undecided voters may not be able to stomach voting for other down-ballot Republicans who want a felon to be our next president. It’s hard to imagine how this goes well for Trump and his Republican Party.
Finally, there’s the overriding issue of the survival of American democracy. The Republicans are trying to convince the public that this whole affair is just about politics. As Trump’s former vice president, Mike Pence, put it: “The conviction of former President Trump on politically motivated charges is an outrage and disservice to the nation.”[1] Really?
Isn’t everything Trump does politically motivated to win the presidency, give him authoritarian power, and eliminate any opposition to his authority? Trump’s conspiring with Michael Cohen and others to conceal the fact that he had sex with a porn star while his wife was home caring for their newly born child was motivated by his desire to win the 2016 election. If moderate Republican women and others had known the truth before they voted, Hillary Clinton may very well have been our 45th president. Our world would be a lot different today under those circumstances. But conspiring to conceal facts that could change the outcome of a presidential election is just politics according to most Republicans. Why should the American people care?
Well, the DOJ during Trump’s administration cared enough to prosecute Michael Cohen for the same campaign finance violations. He was found guilty and sentenced to three years in prison.[2] Why shouldn’t the leader of the conspiracy be treated the same way? Biden and the Democrats need to make that perfectly clear to every voter before Trump steals another election.
No one knows for sure who will win the election this November. It’s still five and a half months away. Much will happen between now and then which could alter the outcome. Here are twelve critical factors that will likely play a role in determining who wins the election.
The Trump court trials
At this point, Trump’s New York hush money trial is probably the only one that will return a verdict before the November election. Despite all the media attention, the case will likely not have a significant impact on the election results, regardless of the outcome. Most voters have already made up their minds about Trump and the verdict will not change many voters’ opinions. At the same time, the strong evidence regarding Trump’s involvement in the January 6th insurrection could influence swing voters even though that trial will probably not occur before the election.
The Youth Vote
The youth vote will matter. It is a vital component of President Biden’s path to re-election. According to a March Youth Poll by Harvard’s Institute of Politics, “If the presidential election were held today, President Biden would outperform former President Trump among both registered (50% Biden, 37% Trump) and likely young voters under 30 (56% Biden, 37% Trump).” This is true despite Biden’s approval ratings on major issues being in the 20 and 30 percentiles.[1]
The Minority Vote
A recent Pew poll indicates 77% of Black voters say they would vote for Biden, well below the 92% he received in 2020.[2] Only 52% of Hispanic voters say they support the president.[3] That is 14% lower than the Hispanic vote Biden received in 2020.[4] This could be particularly troublesome for the president in swing states with large Hispanic voter populations like Arizona (25%)[5] and Nevada (20%).[6] Democrats need to do more to bolster their support among black and Latino voters.
The Israeli-Hamas War
This war is a real wildcard. Right now, the war is hurting Biden, particularly with the youth and minority voters, and aiding Trump. If Biden can help orchestrate a permanent ceasefire in the next few months, it likely would bring many of those voters back into his camp. If the war drags on into the fall, Biden’s re-election will become more doubtful.
Inflation and the Economy
As for inflation and the economy, it’s not a winner for Biden and the Democrats. These issues are at the top of many voters’ concerns. If inflation goes down significantly, Biden’s electoral stock will go up. Still, inflation is not likely to get any worse, so it shouldn’t make matters more difficult for the president. That is true for the economy as well. However, while the economy has improved significantly, voters for the most part have a negative view of it. Biden needs to showcase how much he’s done to improve people’s lives as well as what more he will do if he’s re-elected.
Immigration Reform and Border Security
The need for immigration reform and border security are issues the Republicans have highlighted. But Trump’s opposition to the bipartisan bill to secure our southern border continues to prevent the implementation of a reasonable solution.[7] Again, Biden and the Democrats must make it very clear to the voting public that Trump and his pawns in Congress are responsible for blocking a good bipartisan bill that would have gone a long way toward securing our southern border and fixing our immigration system.
The Candidacy of RFK Jr.
In a recent poll, the presidential candidacy of RFK Jr. hurts Trump more than Biden by a couple of percentage points.[8] In a close race like this one, it could make a difference. But I doubt it will be as significant as the votes of Nikki Haley’s supporters or suburban women.
Nikki Haley’s Supporters
The fact is that seven swing states will decide this election. In the largest swing state, Pennsylvania, Haley received over 16% of its recent primary vote.[9] That was two months after she had already dropped out of the race. In the purple state of Arizona, Haley got nearly 20% of the Republican primary vote.[10] While Haley just declared she will vote for Trump in November, the Atlantic’s David Frum points out:
“Most of Haley’s supporters voted for her as a way to stop Donald Trump. Haley’s announcement today that she intends to vote for Trump won’t raise their opinion of him; it will only lower their opinion of her.”[11]
It’s a good bet many of the Republican primary voters who voted for Haley in the swing states will not be voting for Trump.
Abortion Rights and Suburban Women
The large segment of the population who have abortion rights high on their list of election issues will bolster the Biden campaign.[12] The battle over the right to an abortion has energized Democrats and will increase voter turnout. It probably is Biden’s best issue. Moderate Republican and Independent suburban women who support abortion rights and are turned off by the corrupt former president will help boost Biden. Together, they could put Biden over the top in those critical swing states.[13]
The Supreme Court
The U.S. Supreme Court has been overtaken by radical justices thanks to Trump’s three appointments to the Court. Along with the other right-wing justices, they are responsible for eliminating the Constitutional right to an abortion.[14] In addition, they are continuously chipping away at our civil and personal rights, like voting rights and gun safety protections. If Trump wins the election, we likely could see more extreme right appointments which would dominate the Court for several decades. This possibility should further energize a broad range of the electorate to vote for Biden and Democratic senators.
The Survival of Democracy
Finally, there’s the overarching matter of saving our democracy. Trump has made it clear that he admires dictators like Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un. He has openly declared his fascist inclinations.[15] We must take Trump at his word. The great majority of Americans support our democratic form of government. Biden and the Democrats must demonstrate that voting for them is the only way to guarantee the future of American democracy.
Despite his shortcomings, Biden is our best and only hope at this point. Putting it all together, he might be a better bet at being re-elected after all.
President Biden’s recent withholding of offensive weapons from Israel created a bipartisan backlash. From House Speaker Johnson and Sen. Graham on the right to Sens. Sanders and Welch on the left, a broad spectrum of Congress as well as the American public opposes Biden’s position on Israel’s war against Hamas.
At the same time, it’s not really clear what the president’s position is. While withholding offensive weapons, Biden has just announced the U.S. is supplying Israel with another $1 billion in new arms to further its war in Gaza.[1] It would seem that sending more firepower to Israel would undercut any pressure the president is putting on Israel to agree to a ceasefire.[2]
Those on the political right believe the United States should provide unconditional support to Israel in its Gaza offensive to eliminate the Hamas terrorists. The problem with that position is it will not provide the intended result. According to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, an all-out Israeli offensive on the Gaza city of Rafah would provoke “anarchy” without eliminating Hamas.[3]
Blinken noted that while Israel may have some “initial success…at an incredibly high cost to civilians, but…one that is not sustainable.” He maintained that the Israelis “will be left holding the bag…because a lot of armed Hamas will be left, no matter what they do in Rafah.” Alternatively, if Hamas does “get out of Gaza…then you’re going to have a vacuum and a vacuum that’s likely to be filled by chaos, by anarchy, and ultimately by Hamas again.”[4]
Thus, it makes no sense for Biden to support unconditional aid to Israel. That would neither solve Israel’s Hamas terrorism problem nor the larger Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
On the other hand, those on the left calling for an immediate ceasefire have not offered a practical roadmap for resolving the overriding issues that led to the current war as well as the previous armed clashes over the last 75 years. While a ceasefire would save many lives, mostly Gazans, without meaningful, agreed-upon steps toward a true, lasting peace, it would just give Hamas time to regroup and strike again.
Unfortunately, the Israeli government led by Prime Minister Netanyahu has no interest in trying to resolve the larger issue of Palestinian self-rule in Gaza or the West Bank.[5] In fact, Netanyahu’s government does not even have a clear strategy for Gaza once the current fighting ends. The hardliners want the Israeli military to control Gaza indefinitely while the centrist faction of the Israeli leadership believes a non-Hamas, civilian government should be installed.[6]
Specifically, centrist Minister Benny Gantz has given Netanyahu an ultimatum. He is demanding that the prime minister develop a post-war strategy that must include forming a U.S.-European-Arab-Palestinian directorate in charge of civilian administration excluding Hamas in Gaza. The strategy must also include accepting the normalization deal with Saudi Arabia that the Biden administration has been working on. If Netanyahu’s cabinet does not approve such a strategy by June 8th, Gantz and his National Unity party will withdraw from the government.[7] That could lead to the fall of Netanyahu’s government and new elections, hopefully breaking the current Israeli impasse over Gaza and the West Bank.
Sen. Sanders recently summarized the futility of the current situation when he observed: “I think at the end of the day, Hamas cannot be continuing to run Gaza and the Netanyahu government cannot continue to run Israel if we’re going to ever bring peace to that region.”[8] While President Biden likely agrees with Sen. Sanders, his actions send mixed messages and don’t appear to be helping to achieve this end.
Bruce Berlin
A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com. Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/
Ever since Donald Trump was charged with multiple crimes in four different jurisdictions his main strategy for beating these charges has been delay. If he could only delay the trials until after the November elections, Trump believes he would be elected president and have the charges dismissed. However, this would not apply to the two cases brought in state courts, namely the trial now proceeding in New York and the Georgia conspiracy case.
Still, Trump’s strategy does apply to the most important case, the election interference charges in D.C. Since that case involves Trump’s conspiracy to overturn the 2020 election, it’s not only the most important but also the one that has gotten the most attention. While it’s clearly the case that voters most want to know the outcome of the trial before the election, it’s the one that Trump most wants to delay.
But here’s where it gets tricky for Trump. If Trump succeeds in delaying the DC trial until after the election, which now seems likely, and he wins the election, then the American people will never know the truth. So, the only way we will get to the truth about Trump’s involvement in the attempt to overthrow the election is by re-electing President Biden.
The majority of Americans, including 52% of Independents, want a verdict in the DC case prior to the election.[1] Since that is not likely at this point, Trump’s successful delaying tactic would frustrate those voters and make them more prone to support Biden. In addition, it stands to reason that Trump’s desire to delay the trial indicates he believes he’s guilty. If he thought he was innocent, wouldn’t he want to be vindicated before the election to allay Americans’ doubts about voting for him?
Thus, Trump’s delaying strategy is handing Biden and the Democrats a huge campaign issue: If you want to know the truth about Trump’s alleged unlawful interference in the 2020 elections, the only way to guarantee that you will learn what really happened is to vote for Biden.
Bruce Berlin
A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com. Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/
As a college student in the 1960s, I became so appalled at our government’s prosecution of the Vietnam War that I joined the protests against the war. On April 15, 1967, hundreds of thousands of us marched from New York’s Central Park to the United Nations on the East River in the biggest anti-war rally up until then.[1] But as the war grew, so did the protests. On November 15, 1969, the Moratorium to End the War staged an even larger demonstration in Washington.[2] I was among the protesters at the Pentagon that the police teargassed that day.
Today, as then, college students are spearheading the protest movement against America’s involvement in a costly war. And, similar to President Johnson back then, President Biden is now the primary target of the students’ wrath.
True, there are very significant differences between the two conflicts. Most importantly, no Americans are fighting and dying in Gaza today. Over 58,000 American service people lost their lives in Vietnam.[3]
On the other hand, the Administration’s unconditional support for one side is very similar in both wars. Then the United States was all in with the South Vietnamese. Today, our government fully backs Israel. At the same time, a large segment of the American Jewish community as well as Muslim Americans oppose Biden’s position, making his re-election campaign that much more difficult.
In both cases, however, resistance to our government’s handling of the war grew. By March 31, 1968, the opposition was so great that President Johnson announced he would not run for re-election that fall.[4] While President Biden does not appear to be considering withdrawing his candidacy in this year’s election, the protests on college campuses and beyond have increased, though not to the extent of the Vietnam-era demonstrations; at least, not yet.[5]
The Democrats will hold their National Convention in Chicago this coming August. Ironically, that’s the same city where the Democrats gathered in 1968 to nominate their presidential candidate, and it didn’t go well. Anti-war protesters clashed with the police on national television reminding the voters of the Dems’ responsibility for the quagmire in Vietnam.[6] The Democrats ended up losing the election to Richard Nixon. We could very well see a repeat of that tragic scenario later this year if Biden fails to take decisive action soon to stop the slaughter in Gaza.
Despite the growing protests, as well as the increasing death toll in Gaza, Biden just signed a bill providing another $26 billion for Israel’s war effort. Included in that Israeli figure is over $9 billion in humanitarian aid to Gaza.[7]
At the same time, 55% of Americans now disapprove of Israel’s military actions and only 27% approve of Biden’s handling of the Middle East conflict, according to a March Gallup poll.[8]
While the war is not one of the top concerns of the electorate, in a close election as this year’s is likely to be, Biden could lose critical swing states due to his continued support for Israel’s military aggression. Given this distinct possibility, it’s puzzling that Biden hasn’t done more to stop the slaughter of thousands of innocent Gazans, mostly women and children, and the destruction of their homeland.
New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof recently offered this path forward for Biden: stop sending Israel offensive weapons. Kristof noted, “…that would get the attention of the Israel Defense Forces very quickly.” He argued for suspending “the transfer of offensive arms to Israel, pending food actually being delivered to Gaza to end this starvation, and some indication of dialing back the more reckless side of the bombing in Gaza and then push immediately for some kind of a cease-fire and hostage release and, likewise, then try to use that for some kind of an arrangement for a Palestinian state.”[9]
Kristof explained that Biden was right to call out Hamas’s October 7th attack on Israel as “barbaric and intolerable. But if you only care about human rights for one side in a conflict, then you don’t actually care about human rights. And if you regard the deaths of children on one side of a conflict as a tragedy, as unacceptable, but deaths of children on the other side of the conflict as regrettable, then there is something profoundly wrong not just with your geopolitics but with your moral compass.”[10] While it remains to be seen whether Biden actually gets that, we can only hope that he changes course soon before it’s too late.
However, there is something you can do here at home to try to advance peace between Israel and the Palestinians. At 11:15 a.m. on May 12, a live-streamed Joint Memorial Ceremony will be viewed at the Jean Cocteau Theater in Santa Fe as part of an international event in support of efforts to end the violence and bring freedom and justice to all in the Middle East. I hope to see you there. For more information about the Memorial, go to https://www.afcf.org/2024-joint-memorial-day-ceremony.
Bruce Berlin
A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com. Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/
Breaking Big Money's Grip on America 