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About Author: Bruce Berlin

Bruce Berlin is a retired, public sector ethics attorney. He is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution, and a practitioner of Buddhist meditation. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com.

The Struggle for the Soul of America: Why Biden Might Be a Better Bet This November

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No one knows for sure who will win the election this November. It’s still five and a half months away. Much will happen between now and then which could alter the outcome. Here are twelve critical factors that will likely play a role in determining who wins the election.

The Trump court trials

At this point, Trump’s New York hush money trial is probably the only one that will return a verdict before the November election. Despite all the media attention, the case will likely not have a significant impact on the election results, regardless of the outcome. Most voters have already made up their minds about Trump and the verdict will not change many voters’ opinions. At the same time, the strong evidence regarding Trump’s involvement in the January 6th insurrection could influence swing voters even though that trial will probably not occur before the election.

The Youth Vote

The youth vote will matter. It is a vital component of President Biden’s path to re-election. According to a March Youth Poll by Harvard’s Institute of Politics, “If the presidential election were held today, President Biden would outperform former President Trump among both registered (50% Biden, 37% Trump) and likely young voters under 30 (56% Biden, 37% Trump).” This is true despite Biden’s approval ratings on major issues being in the 20 and 30 percentiles.[1]

The Minority Vote

A recent Pew poll indicates 77% of Black voters say they would vote for Biden, well below the 92% he received in 2020.[2] Only 52% of Hispanic voters say they support the president.[3] That is 14% lower than the Hispanic vote Biden received in 2020.[4] This could be particularly troublesome for the president in swing states with large Hispanic voter populations like Arizona (25%)[5] and Nevada (20%).[6] Democrats need to do more to bolster their support among black and Latino voters.

The Israeli-Hamas War

This war is a real wildcard. Right now, the war is hurting Biden, particularly with the youth and minority voters, and aiding Trump. If Biden can help orchestrate a permanent ceasefire in the next few months, it likely would bring many of those voters back into his camp. If the war drags on into the fall, Biden’s re-election will become more doubtful.

Inflation and the Economy

As for inflation and the economy, it’s not a winner for Biden and the Democrats. These issues are at the top of many voters’ concerns. If inflation goes down significantly, Biden’s electoral stock will go up. Still, inflation is not likely to get any worse, so it shouldn’t make matters more difficult for the president. That is true for the economy as well. However, while the economy has improved significantly, voters for the most part have a negative view of it. Biden needs to showcase how much he’s done to improve people’s lives as well as what more he will do if he’s re-elected.

Immigration Reform and Border Security

The need for immigration reform and border security are issues the Republicans have highlighted. But Trump’s opposition to the bipartisan bill to secure our southern border continues to prevent the implementation of a reasonable solution.[7] Again, Biden and the Democrats must make it very clear to the voting public that Trump and his pawns in Congress are responsible for blocking a good bipartisan bill that would have gone a long way toward securing our southern border and fixing our immigration system.

The Candidacy of RFK Jr.

In a recent poll, the presidential candidacy of RFK Jr. hurts Trump more than Biden by a couple of percentage points.[8] In a close race like this one, it could make a difference. But I doubt it will be as significant as the votes of Nikki Haley’s supporters or suburban women.

Nikki Haley’s Supporters

The fact is that seven swing states will decide this election. In the largest swing state, Pennsylvania, Haley received over 16% of its recent primary vote.[9] That was two months after she had already dropped out of the race. In the purple state of Arizona, Haley got nearly 20% of the Republican primary vote.[10] While Haley just declared she will vote for Trump in November, the Atlantic’s David Frum points out:

“Most of Haley’s supporters voted for her as a way to stop Donald Trump. Haley’s announcement today that she intends to vote for Trump won’t raise their opinion of him; it will only lower their opinion of her.”[11]

It’s a good bet many of the Republican primary voters who voted for Haley in the swing states will not be voting for Trump.

Abortion Rights and Suburban Women

The large segment of the population who have abortion rights high on their list of election issues will bolster the Biden campaign.[12] The battle over the right to an abortion has energized Democrats and will increase voter turnout. It probably is Biden’s best issue. Moderate Republican and Independent suburban women who support abortion rights and are turned off by the corrupt former president will help boost Biden. Together, they could put Biden over the top in those critical swing states.[13]

The Supreme Court

            The U.S. Supreme Court has been overtaken by radical justices thanks to Trump’s three appointments to the Court. Along with the other right-wing justices, they are responsible for eliminating the Constitutional right to an abortion.[14] In addition, they are continuously chipping away at our civil and personal rights, like voting rights and gun safety protections. If Trump wins the election, we likely could see more extreme right appointments which would dominate the Court for several decades. This possibility should further energize a broad range of the electorate to vote for Biden and Democratic senators.

The Survival of Democracy

Finally, there’s the overarching matter of saving our democracy. Trump has made it clear that he admires dictators like Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un. He has openly declared his fascist inclinations.[15] We must take Trump at his word. The great majority of Americans support our democratic form of government. Biden and the Democrats must demonstrate that voting for them is the only way to guarantee the future of American democracy.

Despite his shortcomings, Biden is our best and only hope at this point. Putting it all together, he might be a better bet at being re-elected after all.

Bruce Berlin

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com.

Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/.

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[1] https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/47th-edition-spring-2024#key-takeaway–id–1564

[2] https://kansasreflector.com/2024/04/12/black-voters-were-key-to-bidens-2020-win-but-money-woes-make-some-question-their-support-in-2024/

[3] https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/24/the-biden-trump-rematch/

[4] https://www.as-coa.org/articles/chart-how-us-latinos-voted-2020-presidential-election

[5] https://www.axios.com/local/phoenix/2024/03/08/latino-voter-share-arizona

[6] https://naleo.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/1_23_24_-_NEF_Release_NV_Primary_Profile_-_FINAL.pdf

[7] https://democrats.org/news/100-days-after-trump-tanked-the-bipartisan-border-deal-maga-republicans-are-still-standing-in-the-way-of-border-security/

[8] https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/rfk-jr-candidacy-hurts-trump-biden-nbc-news-poll-finds-rcna148536

[9] https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/pennsylvania-presidential-primary-results-nikki-haley-20240424.html

[10] https://www.axios.com/local/phoenix/2024/03/20/trump-arizona-haley-primary-win

[11] https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/05/nikki-haley-trump-endorse/678461/

[12] https://www.npr.org/2024/05/02/1248599739/abortion-democrats-independents-republicans-voting-2024-election

[13] https://theconversation.com/biden-v-trump-winning-suburbia-is-key-to-clinching-the-presidency-in-2024-225248

[14] https://www.plannedparenthood.org/planned-parenthood-metropolitan-washington-dc/ppmw-responds-to-supreme-court-decision-that-overturned-roe-v-wa?gad_source=1&gclid=Cj0KCQjwmMayBhDuARIsAM9HM8dCvsVu8ji9ICtdVvcmlXr5uFBv4smgQ6BH8cvfOb2BVjAjHDf5f5QaAjL4EALw_wcB

[15] https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/trump-fascist-talk-bloodbath-vermin-dictator-1234992957/

The Struggle for the Soul of America: Biden Between a Rock and a Hard Place Over Aid to Israel

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President Biden’s recent withholding of offensive weapons from Israel created a bipartisan backlash. From House Speaker Johnson and Sen. Graham on the right to Sens. Sanders and Welch on the left, a broad spectrum of Congress as well as the American public opposes Biden’s position on Israel’s war against Hamas.

At the same time, it’s not really clear what the president’s position is. While withholding offensive weapons, Biden has just announced the U.S. is supplying Israel with another $1 billion in new arms to further its war in Gaza.[1] It would seem that sending more firepower to Israel would undercut any pressure the president is putting on Israel to agree to a ceasefire.[2]

Those on the political right believe the United States should provide unconditional support to Israel in its Gaza offensive to eliminate the Hamas terrorists. The problem with that position is it will not provide the intended result. According to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, an all-out Israeli offensive on the Gaza city of Rafah would provoke “anarchy” without eliminating Hamas.[3]

Blinken noted that while Israel may have some “initial success…at an incredibly high cost to civilians, but…one that is not sustainable.” He maintained that the Israelis “will be left holding the bag…because a lot of armed Hamas will be left, no matter what they do in Rafah.” Alternatively, if Hamas does “get out of Gaza…then you’re going to have a vacuum and a vacuum that’s likely to be filled by chaos, by anarchy, and ultimately by Hamas again.”[4]

Thus, it makes no sense for Biden to support unconditional aid to Israel. That would neither solve Israel’s Hamas terrorism problem nor the larger Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

On the other hand, those on the left calling for an immediate ceasefire have not offered a practical roadmap for resolving the overriding issues that led to the current war as well as the previous armed clashes over the last 75 years. While a ceasefire would save many lives, mostly Gazans, without meaningful, agreed-upon steps toward a true, lasting peace, it would just give Hamas time to regroup and strike again.

Unfortunately, the Israeli government led by Prime Minister Netanyahu has no interest in trying to resolve the larger issue of Palestinian self-rule in Gaza or the West Bank.[5] In fact, Netanyahu’s government does not even have a clear strategy for Gaza once the current fighting ends. The hardliners want the Israeli military to control Gaza indefinitely while the centrist faction of the Israeli leadership believes a non-Hamas, civilian government should be installed.[6]

Specifically, centrist Minister Benny Gantz has given Netanyahu an ultimatum. He is demanding that the prime minister develop a post-war strategy that must include forming a U.S.-European-Arab-Palestinian directorate in charge of civilian administration excluding Hamas in Gaza. The strategy must also include accepting the normalization deal with Saudi Arabia that the Biden administration has been working on. If Netanyahu’s cabinet does not approve such a strategy by June 8th, Gantz and his National Unity party will withdraw from the government.[7] That could lead to the fall of Netanyahu’s government and new elections, hopefully breaking the current Israeli impasse over Gaza and the West Bank.

Sen. Sanders recently summarized the futility of the current situation when he observed: “I think at the end of the day, Hamas cannot be continuing to run Gaza and the Netanyahu government cannot continue to run Israel if we’re going to ever bring peace to that region.”[8] While President Biden likely agrees with Sen. Sanders, his actions send mixed messages and don’t appear to be helping to achieve this end.

Bruce Berlin

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com. Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/

[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-69013279

[2] https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-administration-steps-pressure-israel-cease-fire-hostage/story?id=110030018#:~:text=Interest%20Successfully%20Added-,Biden%20administration%20steps%20up%20pressure%20on%20Israel%20over%20cease%2Dfire,could%20derail%20cease%2Dfire%20talks.&text=Emergency%20workers%20said%20at%20least,bomb%20the%20southern%20Gaza%20town.

[3] https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2024/05/blinken-israel-offensive-rafah-would-not-eliminate-hamas

[4] https://www.yahoo.com/news/blinken-delivers-strongest-public-rebuke-051530150.html

[5] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-rejects-international-pressure-palestinian-state-2024-02-16/

[6] https://www.yahoo.com/news/hamas-war-splits-israels-cabinet-144841073.html

[7] https://www.axios.com/2024/05/18/benny-gantz-israel-netanyahu-gaza-war

[8] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bernie-sanders-benjamin-netanyahu-humanitarian-aid-to-gaza/#:~:text=Sanders%20called%20the%20situation%20in,is%20feeding%20the%20children%2C%20calling

The Struggle for the Soul of America: Trump’s Delaying Strategy May Backfire on Him

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Ever since Donald Trump was charged with multiple crimes in four different jurisdictions his main strategy for beating these charges has been delay. If he could only delay the trials until after the November elections, Trump believes he would be elected president and have the charges dismissed. However, this would not apply to the two cases brought in state courts, namely the trial now proceeding in New York and the Georgia conspiracy case.

            Still, Trump’s strategy does apply to the most important case, the election interference charges in D.C. Since that case involves Trump’s conspiracy to overturn the 2020 election, it’s not only the most important but also the one that has gotten the most attention. While it’s clearly the case that voters most want to know the outcome of the trial before the election, it’s the one that Trump most wants to delay.

            But here’s where it gets tricky for Trump. If Trump succeeds in delaying the DC trial until after the election, which now seems likely, and he wins the election, then the American people will never know the truth. So, the only way we will get to the truth about Trump’s involvement in the attempt to overthrow the election is by re-electing President Biden.

            The majority of Americans, including 52% of Independents, want a verdict in the DC case prior to the election.[1] Since that is not likely at this point, Trump’s successful delaying tactic would frustrate those voters and make them more prone to support Biden. In addition, it stands to reason that Trump’s desire to delay the trial indicates he believes he’s guilty. If he thought he was innocent, wouldn’t he want to be vindicated before the election to allay Americans’ doubts about voting for him?

            Thus, Trump’s delaying strategy is handing Biden and the Democrats a huge campaign issue: If you want to know the truth about Trump’s alleged unlawful interference in the 2020 elections, the only way to guarantee that you will learn what really happened is to vote for Biden.

Bruce Berlin

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com. Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/

[1] https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/05/politics/cnn-poll-trump-verdict-election-charges/index.html

The Struggle for the Soul of America: The Israeli-Hamas War Is Biden’s Vietnam

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As a college student in the 1960s, I became so appalled at our government’s prosecution of the Vietnam War that I joined the protests against the war. On April 15, 1967, hundreds of thousands of us marched from New York’s Central Park to the United Nations on the East River in the biggest anti-war rally up until then.[1] But as the war grew, so did the protests. On November 15, 1969, the Moratorium to End the War staged an even larger demonstration in Washington.[2] I was among the protesters at the Pentagon that the police teargassed that day.

Today, as then, college students are spearheading the protest movement against America’s involvement in a costly war. And, similar to President Johnson back then, President Biden is now the primary target of the students’ wrath.

True, there are very significant differences between the two conflicts. Most importantly, no Americans are fighting and dying in Gaza today. Over 58,000 American service people lost their lives in Vietnam.[3]

On the other hand, the Administration’s unconditional support for one side is very similar in both wars. Then the United States was all in with the South Vietnamese. Today, our government fully backs Israel. At the same time, a large segment of the American Jewish community as well as Muslim Americans oppose Biden’s position, making his re-election campaign that much more difficult. 

In both cases, however, resistance to our government’s handling of the war grew. By March 31, 1968, the opposition was so great that President Johnson announced he would not run for re-election that fall.[4] While President Biden does not appear to be considering withdrawing his candidacy in this year’s election, the protests on college campuses and beyond have increased, though not to the extent of the Vietnam-era demonstrations; at least, not yet.[5]

The Democrats will hold their National Convention in Chicago this coming August. Ironically, that’s the same city where the Democrats gathered in 1968 to nominate their presidential candidate, and it didn’t go well. Anti-war protesters clashed with the police on national television reminding the voters of the Dems’ responsibility for the quagmire in Vietnam.[6] The Democrats ended up losing the election to Richard Nixon. We could very well see a repeat of that tragic scenario later this year if Biden fails to take decisive action soon to stop the slaughter in Gaza.

Despite the growing protests, as well as the increasing death toll in Gaza, Biden just signed a bill providing another $26 billion for Israel’s war effort. Included in that Israeli figure is over $9 billion in humanitarian aid to Gaza.[7]

At the same time, 55% of Americans now disapprove of Israel’s military actions and only 27% approve of Biden’s handling of the Middle East conflict, according to a March Gallup poll.[8]

While the war is not one of the top concerns of the electorate, in a close election as this year’s is likely to be, Biden could lose critical swing states due to his continued support for Israel’s military aggression. Given this distinct possibility, it’s puzzling that Biden hasn’t done more to stop the slaughter of thousands of innocent Gazans, mostly women and children, and the destruction of their homeland.

New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof recently offered this path forward for Biden: stop sending Israel offensive weapons. Kristof noted, “…that would get the attention of the Israel Defense Forces very quickly.” He argued for suspending “the transfer of offensive arms to Israel, pending food actually being delivered to Gaza to end this starvation, and some indication of dialing back the more reckless side of the bombing in Gaza and then push immediately for some kind of a cease-fire and hostage release and, likewise, then try to use that for some kind of an arrangement for a Palestinian state.”[9]

Kristof explained that Biden was right to call out Hamas’s October 7th attack on Israel as “barbaric and intolerable. But if you only care about human rights for one side in a conflict, then you don’t actually care about human rights. And if you regard the deaths of children on one side of a conflict as a tragedy, as unacceptable, but deaths of children on the other side of the conflict as regrettable, then there is something profoundly wrong not just with your geopolitics but with your moral compass.”[10] While it remains to be seen whether Biden actually gets that, we can only hope that he changes course soon before it’s too late.

However, there is something you can do here at home to try to advance peace between Israel and the Palestinians. At 11:15 a.m. on May 12, a live-streamed Joint Memorial Ceremony will be viewed at the Jean Cocteau Theater in Santa Fe as part of an international event in support of efforts to end the violence and bring freedom and justice to all in the Middle East. I hope to see you there. For more information about the Memorial, go to https://www.afcf.org/2024-joint-memorial-day-ceremony.

Bruce Berlin

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com. Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/

[1] https://www.zinnedproject.org/news/tdih/massive-anti-war-demonstrations/

[2] https://archive.nytimes.com/learning.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/15/nov-15-1969-anti-vietnam-war-demonstration-held/#:~:text=all%20Historic%20Headlines%20%C2%BB-,On%20Nov.,and%20towns%20across%20the%20country.

[3] https://www.archives.gov/research/military/vietnam-war/casualty-statistics#:~:text=April%2029%2C%202008.-,The%20Vietnam%20Conflict%20Extract%20Data%20File%20of%20the%20Defense%20Casualty,casualties%20of%20the%20Vietnam%20War.

[4] https://billofrightsinstitute.org/essays/lyndon-b-johnsons-decision-not-to-run-in-1968

[5] https://www.reuters.com/world/us/pro-palestinian-seders-planned-new-york-other-cities-college-campuses-simmer-2024-04-23/; https://www.washingtonpost.com/podcasts/post-reports/the-mounting-antiwar-protests-on-college-campuses/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=wp_post_reports

[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_Democratic_National_Convention_protests

[7] https://apnews.com/article/congress-ukraine-israel-pacific-glance-0af96be97c47496f88506a21ebe1ddab#:~:text=%E2%80%94%20About%20%2426%20billion%20for%20supporting,amid%20the%20Israel%2DHamas%20war.

[8] https://news.gallup.com/poll/642695/majority-disapprove-israeli-action-gaza.aspx

[9] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/24/opinion/biden-morality-gaza-israel.html?action=click&module=audio-series-bar&region=header&pgtype=Article

[10] Ibid.

The Struggle for the Soul of America: Biden on the Brink

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I turned on the news Friday morning to learn that Israel had bombed Iran in retaliation for the Islamic State’s missile attack on the Jewish state last weekend. Fortunately, Israel’s counterattack was measured and caused relatively little damage to Iran. Now the world waits to see if the Iranian leaders will retaliate in turn. Or, hopefully, since their losses were minor, the Iranians may be content to leave matters as is, as long as Israel does the same. Still, these two enemies have brought their mutual enmity to the brink of all-out war. No one can be happy about that.

At the same time, the Israeli-Hamas War drags on in Gaza. While President Biden urges Prime Minister Netanyahu to halt the Israeli offensive and agree to a ceasefire, again the world waits, this time, to see what Israel will do next.

Meanwhile, Congress is preparing to send more unconditional military assistance to our Middle East ally in its battle against Hamas.[1] Biden’s support for the $26 billion aid for Israel just approved by Congress this weekend is further alienating the Muslin American community from the president:

Many Muslim Americans were already furious with the Biden administration over its handling of the Israel-Hamas war, with activists organizing Democrats to vote “uncommitted” rather than support the president in some state primaries this year.[2]

Such aid only undercuts any efforts by the Biden administration to stop the fighting. What incentive does Netanyahu have to cease his offensive in Gaza if the U.S. continues supplying him with the means to keep it going? It makes no sense. Moreover, the administration’s unwillingness to get tough with Israel as more and more innocent Gazans become collateral damage or starve to death hurts Biden’s re-election campaign.

The longer this war continues, the greater the possibility of Iran and its surrogates coming to the aid of Hamas and creating a much larger regional war. As noted in Foreign Affairs:

Biden urgently needs to articulate and then implement a clear strategy to protect Palestinian civilians from bearing the brunt of Israel’s military operations, counter Iran’s corrosive war-by-proxy strategy, and blunt the capabilities of Tehran’s accomplices.[3]

The war is taking a toll on Biden’s support.[4] Less than 40% of Americans now support Israel’s actions in Gaza.[5] And only 33% now support Biden’s handling of the conflict.[6] If the war is not concluded in the next few months, the president may very well be on the brink of defeat in November. Biden could lose swing states like Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin that he won by small margins in 2020.[7] He needs to use the full force of his office to quickly step up his efforts to end the war or risk losing the presidency this fall.

Bruce Berlin

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com. Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/

[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/04/19/israel-ukraine-aid-house-speaker-mike-johnson/

[2] https://www.yahoo.com/news/muslim-americans-soured-biden-see-024447720.html

[3] https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/irans-order-chaos-suzanne-maloney?check_logged_in=1&utm_medium=promo_email&utm_source=lo_flows&utm_campaign=registered_user_welcome&utm_term=email_1&utm_content=20240419

[4] https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/israels-war-gaza-political-flashpoint-risk-bidens-coalition/story?id=108962662

[5] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/04/19/americans-israel-gaza-polling/

[6] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-israel-gaza-poll-cbs-news/

[7] https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/wisconsin/; https://www.yahoo.com/news/muslim-americans-soured-biden-see-024447720.html; https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/michigan

The Struggle for the Soul of America: The Issues Likely to Decide the 2024 Elections

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There are so many diverse issues in this year’s elections that it’s hard to tell which ones may determine the outcome next November. Of course, the economy, including inflation, will play an important role in the election. It always does.

But I believe four other issues will be critically important in this election. Specifically, abortion, the Israel-Hamas War, immigration, and democracy. Let’s them take one at a time.

Abortion. Like Biden, the great majority of Americans support a woman’s right to choose. That includes 43% of Republicans. About 1 in 8 voters (12%) now say that abortion is the most important issue for their vote in the 2024 elections.[1] While Trump recently declared that the abortion issue should be left up to the states, he takes pride in having appointed the three Supreme Court justices responsible for overturning Roe v. Wade.

Given the opportunity, the Republican Party will likely enact a national ban on abortion. Despite his latest statement, I doubt Trump would risk the fury of conservatives by vetoing an abortion ban bill. As president, he would undoubtedly sign a national ban. Abortion rights supporters know that voting for Biden is the only way to absolutely prevent that from happening. A strong turnout by them in critical swing states could very well be the decisive factor in the election. In fact, the Democrats could win both the House and the Senate as well with a compelling pro-choice campaign.

Israel-Hamas War. On the other hand, Biden’s handling of the war has cost him support among youth,[2] Arab-Americans, and others. Many Democrats, including Sens. Sanders and Kaine who come from different wings of the party, have criticized Biden’s failure to condition U.S. aid to Israel and to demand a ceasefire.[3] Recently, the president appears to finally be pressuring Israel, but it could be too little too late. He needs to stand up to Prime Minister Netanyahu and force Israel to end the war by cutting off unconditional aid.

Unfortunately, the end to the war is nowhere in sight. This could cost Biden the election. We need to lobby the Biden administration to take immediate steps to severely limit civilian casualties, demand a permanent ceasefire, and make further aid to Israel conditional.

Immigration. This issue offers Biden a significant challenge as well as a great opportunity. The Republicans blame Biden for the huge number of undocumented immigrants entering the U.S. from Mexico. Yet, it was Trump who pushed the Republicans to reject their own border security bill, which would have gone a long way toward solving the crisis at our southern border.[4]

The challenge for Biden is to reframe immigration as beneficial in the minds and hearts of Americans. We are a nation of immigrants who came to the United States seeking a better life. Immigrants make valuable contributions to our country in farming and numerous other endeavors. We need them to keep our economy strong. They want to be here and, on average, are more law-abiding than native-born Americans.[5]

If he reframes the issue, Biden has an opportunity to turn immigration into a winner for Democrats. While we must secure our borders and control the number of immigrants entering our country, immigrants are a valuable asset to America. Trump formulates immigration as a crime and security issue. Actually, it’s an economic and humanitarian matter. Biden needs to confront Trump head-on and set the record straight.

Democracy. If elected, Trump wants to be a dictator on day one of his presidency. He idolizes autocrats like Russia’s Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un and envisions having the supreme power they have. Since the great majority of Republican officeholders support Trump and desire the same control over America that he does, they all need to be defeated. The Democrats need to make this clear to the voting public.

Whether American democracy survives could be the biggest issue in this year’s election. Biden and all Democrats running for office in November should make the survival of our democracy the central theme of their campaigns. Will we, the people continue to have a voice in determining abortion, immigration, and all other public policies? Or will the United States become an authoritarian regime led by Trump?

The path to victory for Biden and the Democrats is clear. Whether they have the vision and wisdom to take it is another question.

Bruce Berlin

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com.

Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/.

[1] https://www.kff.org/womens-health-policy/press-release/1-in-8-voters-say-abortion-is-most-important-to-their-vote-they-lean-democratic-support-biden-and-want-abortion-to-be-legal/

[2] https://www.vox.com/2024-elections/24125496/young-voters-trump-biden-polling

[3] https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/04/05/congress/bernies-advice-to-biden-on-israel-00150808

[4] https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/republicans-kill-border-bill-sign-trumps-strength-mcconnells-waning-in-rcna137477

[5] https://siepr.stanford.edu/news/mythical-tie-between-immigration-and-crime

The Struggle for the Soul of America: Back Home Refreshed and Recharged

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Back home in New Mexico after a month in Panama. It felt like another world there, and for the most part, it was. Above all, my trip gave me the time and space to reflect on the past, more clearly see the present, and imagine future possible directions around the next bend or two. Not just for my future, but for my relationship with my partner Margaret, for the various communities I’m part of, and for our country.

I highly recommend finding the time and space to take such a journey. It was a truly valuable experience for me. And, you don’t have to go all the way to exotic Panama to do it. Just set aside a day or two in a quiet place in your home or somewhere nearby.

The most insightful realization I received on my trip is that I need to slow down. Being in Lago Bay certainly pointed me in the right direction. But given the critical nature of this year’s elections, truly slowing down to a relaxed, simple pace is not likely to happen until I’ve done whatever I can to affect the November results.

There are only seven months until this monumental election. That the outcome of this year’s voting could be the demise of our democratic republic form of government is just, well, hard to believe. If you have any doubts about that, you are not alone. Doubt is good, but we cannot let it stop us from doing whatever we can to ensure that such a calamity does not befall our country.

While many people agree with this assessment, I often hear them say, “I’m only one person. What can I do that will make a difference?” Well, millions of us pulling together can make a huge difference. In the swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) where the election will most likely be decided, a relatively small number of votes will put one candidate over the top.

Our phone calls, postcards, door knocking, texts, and emails to undecided and reluctant voters can make all the difference. We don’t want to be saying after Election Day, “If only I had spent one more day campaigning or made 20 more phone calls…” or whatever. Now is the time to resolve to go the extra mile to ensure our democratic republic survives the Trump-led onslaught by the far right.

Personally, I am still weighing my options. I may go work for Biden and the Democrats running for Congress in Arizona or Pennsylvania. And/or sign up for regular phone banking in one or more of the swing states. I just know I don’t want to one day be telling my grandchildren, “I could have done more to save our country from authoritarian rule.” Once I’ve done everything I can to help save our country, then it will be time to really slow down as I approach my 80th birthday.

Bruce Berlin

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com.

Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/.

The Struggle for the Soul of America: A Time for Reflection and Renewal

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The simple life soothes my soul. And there’s plenty of that here at Lago Bay in Panama. It’s a pretty exceptional place. Beautiful, remote, and quiet except for all the sweet, chattering parrots and their feathered friends. This delightful paradise makes it easy to leave all the world’s troubles and chaos behind, at least for a little while.

            My partner Margaret and I have taken a respite here and fortuitously discovered a whole other world. With nowhere to go. Nothing to do but walk on the beach or lounge around our private pool. And plenty of time to reflect on life while the living is easy.

            I feel like we’ve stepped out of time into a different dimension. Away from our normal lives, even from our ‘normal vacations.’  What a gift to be able to see everything from such a unique vantage point.

            This remote, tropical haven has given me the time and space to re-examine my life and evaluate what is most important to me now. What’s come into sharp focus is my desire to slow down, to live life at a more simple, quieter pace.

I will turn 79 next month. As I head toward my eighth decade on the planet, I can feel myself changing on a cellular level. My mind is not thinking of what I need to do next. My body is content to stay still. My spirit is filled with gratitude and love. I am here now. Where I want to be. And that is so good.

That’s not to say my concern for the future of our country has diminished in any way. I just know that I no longer have the energy to take on the big challenges of our time the way I used to. So, I won’t be leading the charge to make the world a better place. But I will lend a hand when I can; it just will be on a much smaller scale than what I’ve done previously.

With one critical exception.

  I intend to do whatever I can to make sure Donald Trump is soundly defeated at the polls next November. Our democratic republic will fail if Trump is elected. Though I may have serious disagreements with President Biden on his Israeli-Hamas war position, as well as a few other policies, I believe he is our best hope for saving our country from Trump’s authoritarian rule.

            At the same time, I’ll continue writing my blog and memoir, work on house projects, and support my community. I’ll also be rooting for the next generation to have more success improving our world than mine did.

Bruce Berlin

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com.

Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/.

The Struggle for the Soul of America: Will History Repeat Itself?

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In the summer of 1968, the Democratic Party held its national convention in Chicago to nominate its candidates for president and vice president. This summer, 56 years later, the Democrats will again gather in Chicago for their national convention.

            Back then, the Vietnam War was raging. Thousands of our soldiers were dying in Southeast Asia and millions of Americans were marching against the war here at home.[1] Now, while no American soldiers are currently fighting in the Middle East, the United States is funding Israel’s war against Hamas. Thousands of innocent Gazans are dying, and Americans are again protesting.[2]

            The anti-war demonstrations at the 1968 Democratic Convention were televised across the world. As the party’s nominee, Humbert Humphry, pledged to continue the war, the protests grew outside the convention hall. The scene became bloody when the Chicago police tried to turn back the demonstrators by beating them with their clubs.[3] It most likely contributed to the Democrats losing the election to former Republican vice president Richard Nixon that fall.

            Now President Biden with bipartisan support is unconditionally providing billions of dollars in aid for Israel’s merciless prosecution of the war in Gaza. Despite mounting opposition, Biden has failed to call for a permanent ceasefire. If he does not change course and stop the free flow of U.S. weapons and funds to Israel, Biden will be seriously hampered in his election campaign by his support of what some are calling Israel’s genocide in Gaza.[4]

Biden and the Democrats can ill-afford this self-inflicted wound in their effort to hold onto the White House and the Senate as well as win back the House.[5] Predictions are this will be a close election.[6] We must not let history repeat itself. Instead, we must demand that Biden and the Democrats call for an immediate, permanent ceasefire, and stop the unconditional support of Israel’s war in Gaza NOW!

Bruce Berlin

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com.

Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/. Join the movement to revive our democracy. Together we can save the soul of America.

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moratorium_to_End_the_War_in_Vietnam#:~:text=The%20Moratorium%20to%20End%20the,Moratorium%20March%20in%20Washington%2C%20D.C.

[2] https://apnews.com/article/protest-gaza-israel-palestinians-london-29d5cd664c81654283344d1874691a4f

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_Democratic_National_Convention_protests

[4] https://www.npr.org/2024/01/26/1227078791/icj-israel-genocide-gaza-palestinians-south-africa

[5] https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/28/biden-netanyahu-israel-gaza-war-2024-election

[6] https://www.racetothewh.com/

The Struggle for the Soul of America: We Are the Ones We’ve Been Waiting For

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(Note: On Tuesday, Margaret and I began a month-long trip to Panama. So, my blog posts may be sporadic and possibly shorter this month. I’ll do the best I can, under the circumstances, until I return at the end of the month.)

On Wednesday, the Supreme Court granted cert to Trump’s appeal of the U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals’ decision that he does not have complete immunity from criminal liability for acts taken as president. The Court has scheduled oral argument for April 22, which means a decision would not come down until late May or, perhaps, the end of June when the Court’s 2023-24 session concludes.

Assuming Trump loses his appeal (which seems likely, but you never know with this Supreme Court), the D.C. insurrection trial will probably not begin before late summer or early fall. It’s highly doubtful a decision would be rendered before the November election. Clearly, a victory for Trump.

Bill Kristol recently referred to a quote from Judge Learned Hand’s 1944 Spirit of Liberty speech regarding what this truly means:

I often wonder whether we do not rest our hopes too much upon constitutions, upon laws and upon courts. These are false hopes; believe me, these are false hopes. Liberty lies in the hearts of men and women; when it dies there, no constitution, no law, no court can even do much to help it.[1]

If you had any doubt before, it’s now crystal clear the Supreme Court does not uphold the principles enshrined in the Constitution or serve the interests of the American people. The same may be said of the Congress as well. If it had adhered to Constitutional principles, Trump would have been found guilty by the Senate after he was impeached by the House in 2021. And even the Department of Justice cannot be relied upon by the American people. If it had served the people’s interests, Trump would have been brought to trial long before now for fomenting the January 6th insurrection.

 Yet, there is a silver lining here. All those who still believe in democracy – Democrats, Never Trump Republicans, and Independents – now know that they, including everyone reading this and myself, must double their efforts to ensure the re-election of Biden and save our democratic republic. By the time the election rolls around next fall, very few voters will have any question about Trump’s efforts to provoke the January 6th insurrection and overturn the 2020 election. Of course, Trump’s loyal followers will stand by “their president” no matter what. That’s what cults do.

As Ben Franklin said on the last day of the Constitutional Convention on September 18, 1787, we have a republic, “if you can keep it.” It is now up to us, the American people, after 237 years, to make certain that we keep it. We are the ones we’ve been waiting for.

Bruce Berlin

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com.

Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/. Join the movement to revive our democracy. Together we can save the soul of America.

[1] https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1737454546073309352