The Struggle for the Soul of America: Political Pendulum Swinging Back Toward the Dems — Is 2026 Blue Tsunami Possible?

Posted on December 16, 2025 by Author: Bruce Berlin

History demonstrates that American politics swings back and forth like the pendulum in an old grandfather clock. A century ago, during the Roaring 20s, the Republicans occupied the White House controlling public policy until 1933. Then the pendulum swung left as Democrat Franklin Roosevelt became president and launched the New Deal.

While the Republicans ruled in the 1950s when Dwight Eisenhower was president, the political pendulum didn’t truly swing back to the GOP until President Richard Nixon was elected in 1968. Though President Jimmy Carter’s one term interrupted Republican rule in 1977, it wasn’t until the election of Bill Clinton in 1992 that the pendulum again swung back to the Democrats.

Donald Trump’s election in 2016 marked a pivot towards the Republicans. While disrupted by Biden’s 2020 election, Trump is now trying his best to extend the swing to the right in his second term by slashing aide and social programs and expanding his autocratic control of the government. At the same time, however, there are signs that the pendulum is beginning to turn back toward the Dems. In fact, some believe there’s a possibility the country may even be on the verge of a Blue Tsunami.[1]

For one, the Dems have won most of the 2025 off-year elections. From New Jersey to Virginia to Georgia and, most recently, the Miami mayor’s race, the Democrats are not just winning, they’re crushing their GOP opposition. A Democrat hadn’t been elected mayor of Miami in 28 years![2]

For another, the nonpartisan newsletter Inside Elections recently shifted its analysis of 16 House races in next year’s mid-terms to favor the Democrats and only one in the opposite direction toward the Republicans. That includes races in the red states of Nebraska, Ohio and Tennessee.[3]

A third indication is what’s happening on the redistricting front. Several months ago, the Republicans thought their redistricting efforts were going to give then a significant electoral advantage in the House. However, Indiana’s conservative legislature recently rejected redistricting[4] and Missouri’s GOP plans have been put on hold by a petition requiring a statewide vote on redistricting.[5] Meanwhile, Texas’s attempt to shift five districts to the Republicans appears to not be working as planned. If Dems’ overperformance in House races this year is a fair signal of what lies ahead, it now appears that the blue party could win three of those five new seats.[6]

On the other hand, last month California voters approved a new redistricting map that could flip five House seats now held by Republicans to the Democrats.[7] But the Republicans have gone to court trying to block the new map from being implemented, claiming it’s unconstitutional.[8]

Then there’s the affordability dispute, which Trump calls a Democratic “hoax.” The almost certain extreme rise in healthcare costs with the elimination of the Obamacare subsidies the first of the new year will make affordability an even bigger issue than it already is. If affordability and the economy are voters’ main concerns in next year’s election, which is quite likely, current polling suggests “we’d be looking at a huge blue wave, with a swing 50% larger than in 2018.”[9]

Of course, circumstances could be substantially different when voting begins next fall. But, given the current state of affairs, a Blue Tsunami in the 2026 elections is a very distinctive possibility.

Bruce Berlin, J.D.

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), and his new memoir, From Camden to Kathmandu. He is the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com. Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/

[1] https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/12/03/tennessee-special-election-trump-blue-wave-2026/87482063007/

[2] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/a-democrat-wins-miami-mayors-race-for-the-first-time-in-nearly-30-years

[3] https://rollcall.com/2025/12/09/house-race-ratings-midterm-elections/

[4] https://apnews.com/article/indiana-lawmakers-redistricting-final-vote-80e3e546fc7acec4a7bd7cd110787375

[5] https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/opponents-of-trump-backed-redistricting-in-missouri-submit-a-petition-to-force-a-public-vote/ar-AA1S1aEY?ocid=BingNewsSerp

[6] https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/14/politics/texas-redistricting-gop-latinos

[7] https://apnews.com/article/california-redistricting-congress-election-661fbe88aa65d858fdfb4f119f4f92b2

[8] https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/government/court-battle-begins-over-republican-challenge-to-california-s-prop-50/ar-AA1SoPyD?ocid=BingNewsSerp

[9] https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/affordability-voters-favor-democrats

The Struggle for the Soul of America: Just a Few More Days

Posted on November 1, 2024 by Author: Bruce Berlin

Finally! Election Day is almost here. It’s been a long time coming.

Most of the people I’ve talked to recently are scared. They’re worried that the fascist Trump will win, our democracy will be destroyed, and the country will be overrun by a bunch of extreme white nationalists. While that’s a real possibility, agonizing over it won’t do any good. Worrying only causes pain and heartache.

Here’s a better idea: Visualize a Big Blue Wave on Election Day. Think about Harris and Walz in the White House implementing a New Way Forward for all Americans.[1] It will make you feel more positive about our country’s future. And it beats dreading about a second Trump term in the Oval Office by a long shot.

This is not a fantasy game. In truth, a Harris/Walz victory is much more likely than not. A new CNN poll finds Vice President Harris with a 6-point lead over former President Trump in Wisconsin and a 5-point lead in Michigan.[2] In Pennsylvania, they are virtually tied,[3] though a recent UMass poll has Harris up by one percentage point.[4]

Early voting in the Keystone state actually provides evidence of a larger Harris lead. Voters over 65 have cast nearly half of the early ballots there. Registered Democrats account for about 58 percent of votes from seniors compared to only 35 percent for Republicans. In the other Blue Wall states of Michigan and Wisconsin, early Democratic voters over the age of 65 are running 10 to 20 percent ahead of their Republican counterparts.[5]

Other indications of a Harris victory on Tuesday include the gender gap, the enthusiasm gap, and the Never Trump Republican movement. Across battleground states, women account for roughly 55 percent of the early vote, while men are around 45 percent.[6] Additionally, 77 percent of Democrats say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting compared to 67 percent of Republicans.[7] And, the number of Republicans supporting Harris is growing as well.[8]

New polls out this morning reveal that Harris appears to have a very big lead over Trump among early voters. The vice president has an advantage of between 19 and 29 percentage points ahead of Trump, according to New York Times-Siena College, CNN, and ABC News-Ipsos polls.[9]

But there is still work to be done to ensure a Blue Wave victory. One of the easiest and most important ways you can help Harris and the Dems win is to make calls to swing state voters from the comfort of your own home. Here’s the link to get involved: https://events.democrats.org/event/725393/?ceid=19227312&emci=343d19aa-1c97-ef11-88ce-000d3a98fa6b&emdi=b4482536-8d97-ef11-88ce-000d3a98fa6b.

Remember, taking action is the remedy to relieve your fears and anxiety about the election. Knowing you helped in such a critical endeavor will make a difference in both your feelings and the election returns.

May the Force be with us!

Bruce Berlin, J.D.

A retired public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is a former U.S. Institute of Peace Fellow and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He is also the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America. (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.). Contact him at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com.

Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/.

[1] https://kamalaharris.com/a-new-way-forward/

[2] https://www.yahoo.com/news/harris-6-point-lead-wisconsin-173428443.html

[3] https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/10/30/pennsylvania-2024-trump-harris-polls-race-virtually-tied-in-4-new-surveys-of-vital-battleground-state/

[4] https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/31/presidential-election-polls-pennsylvania-michigan-nc/75964694007/

[5] https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/31/trump-lagging-early-votes-seniors-pennsylvania-00186612

[6] https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/29/gender-gap-early-voting-00186155

[7] https://www.newsweek.com/democrat-voter-enthusiasm-republicans-double-digits-poll-1978203

[8] https://ncnewsline.com/2024/10/31/republicans-supporting-harris-say-whisper-caucus-could-swing-the-election/

[9] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/31/polls-show-harris-with-big-early-vote-lead-despite-gop-gains/

The Struggle for the Soul of America: Will Harris Ride a Blue Wave in November?

Posted on October 19, 2024 by Author: Bruce Berlin

According to a number of polls, Vice President Harris’s support has slipped. She now leads Trump by only one or two points.[1] Assuming the polls are accurate, which is not always the case, this race appears to be going down to the wire.

On the other hand, I believe a Blue Wave is still quite possible. Three voting blocs may very well create such a flood. First, massive support by women for Kamala will be a significant indicator of a Big Blue Wave. While Harris leads Trump by 14% with women, Trump has a 14% edge with men.[2] The important difference, however, will be in turnout. Women will come out in record numbers to vote for the first woman president. That Harris fully supports a woman’s right to choose, unlike her opponent, will further boost turnout for her.

The second element of the electorate that will help build a large margin of victory for Harris is traditional Republicans who refuse to support Trump. A recent NYT poll found nine percent of likely Republican voters plan to back the Democratic candidate in November, up from five percent in the last New York Times/Siena College poll just a month ago.[3] I suspect that number will be twelve to fifteen percent by election day.

The list of prominent Republicans supporting Harris keeps growing. On September 18^th, 111 former Republican officials and members of Congress endorsed Harris in a letter published in the New York Times. They wrote that “she possesses the essential qualities to serve as President and Donald Trump does not…” Moreover, they denounced Trump’s “unusual affinity for other authoritarian leaders, contempt for the norms of decent, ethical and lawful behavior, and chaotic national security decision-making.” The list includes a host of national security and foreign policy figures who served under the last four Republican presidents, including Trump.[4] Well known and respected, they are bound to get the attention of their fellow Republicans who are having difficulty backing Trump.

The third ingredient of the Harris victory pie will be the youth vote. A new poll by Harvard’s Institute of Politics shows that among 18-to-29-year-olds nationwide, Harris holds a 31-point lead over Trump among likely voters.[5]

Of course, other segments of the electorate strongly support Harris as well. Seventy-eight percent of Black voters[6] sides with her, and she has a 25-point lead over Trump with Hispanic voters.[7] But those constituencies make up the Democratic core and are already baked into the Harris election pie.

One final factor in this election that gives Harris a great advantage is Trump himself. Harris is right when she states the former president is “unstable and unhinged.” As the Washington Post observed, he plays “on hatred of immigrants and revenge fantasies.” He denigrates his political opponents as “the enemies from within … those people are more dangerous than Russia and China.” Harris “is running against the oldest man ever to be nominated by a major party for the presidency, someone who is keeping secretsabout his health and degenerating before our eyes.”[8]

In line with the likelihood of a Harris victory, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) indicates “a 72% probability that the Democratic candidate wins in November… Historically, when the Dow’s year-to-date gain by mid-October exceeds 10% — as it does this year with a 13.4% rise — the incumbent party wins 78% of the time.” Financial analyst Mark Hulbert stresses that “the Dow’s indication of who will win the presidency deserves to be taken seriously,” as the stock market has proven to be a reliable predictor in over 30 elections.[9]

And then there’s this recent sign favoring Harris. Undecided voters are notably breaking toward Harris, with 60% of those who decided in the last month now supporting her, compared to just 36% for Trump.[10]

While Harris’s candidacy does have serious drawbacks (e.g. her Middle East and energy policies), unlike Trump she stands for democracy and all the people. I wouldn’t be too surprised to see a Blue Wave washing up on the shores of America next month.

Bruce Berlin

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is a former U.S. Institute of Peace Fellow and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He is also the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America. (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.). Contact him at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com.

Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/.

[1] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/harris-trump-polls-tracker-election-campaign-latest-b2629835.html

[2] https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-trump-lead-shrinks-new-poll-1971354

[3] https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-support-among-republicans-almost-doubles-nyt-siena-poll-1965611

[4] https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/republicans-endorsing-kamala-harris-trump-1235096939/

[5] https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/latest-poll

[6] https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/oct/17/trump-harris-election-black-voters

[7] https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-surging-back-key-voting-group-new-poll-shows-1970186

[8] https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/18/newsletter-harris-attack-trump-weakness/

[9] https://www.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-predicts-kamala-harris-191008486.html

[10] Ibid.

The Struggle for the Soul of America: Will Harris Ride a Blue Wave to Victory or Watch It Crash on the Shores of the Middle East?

Posted on October 5, 2024 by Author: Bruce Berlin

While most of the media is reporting that this year’s election will be very close, some experts see it differently. Northwestern University data scientist Thomas Miller has crafted a model for forecasting the 2024 presidential election that, he believes, is far more reliable than the polling that’s constantly cited in the media as the best guide to the outcome on Nov. 5. Miller’s model is based on 60 years of presidential election history.[1]

In 2020, Miller called the presidential race within 12 electoral votes, and correctly posited that the Democrats would sweep both Georgia Senate seats when the polls showed the Republicans significantly ahead. Miller’s data shows the Harris-Walz ticket far in the lead and the wide Democrat advantage settling into a remarkably stable pattern. He sees the Harris-Walz team winning by 66 electoral votes over the Trump-Vance ticket.[2]

Allan Lichtman, the American University political historian renowned for accurately predicting 9 out of the 10 most recent presidential elections, also predicts Harris will win this year’s White House race.[3]

The fact that a great many prominent Republicans have endorsed Harris provides further evidence that the Democratic ticket will prevail.[4] Former conservative Congresswoman Liz Cheney is even campaigning with Harris in the swing state of Wisconsin this week.[5] As Gov. Walz said at the recent Vice-Presidential debate, “Support of democracy matters…I’m as surprised as anybody of this coalition that Kamala Harris has built, from Bernie Sanders to Dick Cheney to Taylor Swift and a whole bunch of folks in between…”[6]

But all of Harris’s promising electoral prospects could quickly be swept away by the rising threat of an expanding war in the Middle East. Israel is now exploring how to retaliate against Iran for its recent missile attack on the Jewish state, which Israel acknowledges did minimal damage.[7] While President Biden is trying to temper Prime Minister Netanyahu’s response, he has yet to take any strong steps to stop the escalation of the conflict. And Harris appears to be going along with Biden’s timid approach.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump has said he would make a deal with Iran to avoid a full-blown war if he were elected.[8] Ironically, Trump killed an important nuclear deal with Iran when he was president.[9] But if Harris doesn’t break with Biden and put out her own plan for averting such a war, Trump could become the “peace candidate” and seriously damage Harris’s ability to beat him in November.

To win the presidency Harris cannot allow this to happen. She must provide a clear vision for not only preventing a larger Middle East war but also for creating real peace in the region that both Iran and Israel could accept. Harris must also recognize that the U.S. has to be firm with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. She cannot permit his efforts to escalate the conflict for political purposes deter her from taking a bold stance to achieve peace through diplomacy.[10]

First, Harris must listen to the concerns of Americans, especially in the critical battleground state of Michigan, who have family members living under U.S.-backed Israeli assaults in Lebanon and the occupied Palestinian territories. After repeated requests, she finally did meet with them on Friday, October 4^th. [11] But for someone who says she wants to represent all the people, why did it take her that long?[12] Hopefully, their talk helped meet the Arab-Americans’ needs and encouraged them to support Harris.

At the same time, Harris needs to call for an immediate, permanent ceasefire throughout the Middle East, not just in Gaza as she did last March.[13] Simultaneously, she must provide conditions and incentives that would induce both sides to de-escalate the conflict and move toward a Middle East peace.

Incentives for the Israelis could include:

Iran acknowledging Israel’s right to exist.
Iran agreeing to cease all support for terrorist organizations like Hamas and Hezbollah.
Iran agreeing not to engage in, encourage or support any hostilities toward Israel.
Iran agreeing to influence Hamas to release the Israeli hostages.
U.S. agreeing to supply Israel with the means to defend itself.

Incentives for Iran could include:

U.S. and Israel agreeing not to attack Iran, including its oil fields and nuclear facilities.
U.S. agreeing to help Iran build a peace economy.
U.S. agreeing to help rebuild Gaza.
Israel withdrawing completely from Gaza and agreeing to the right of Palestinians to have their own state.
U.S. halting all shipments of offensive weapons to Israel.

The ball is in Harris’s court. She must demonstrate real leadership now to convince American voters that she’s the right person to lead our country in these critical times.

Bruce Berlin

Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/.

[1] https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/harris-holds-66-electoral-vote-113900118.html

[2] Ibid.

[3] https://www.usatoday.com/story/graphics/2024/09/29/allan-lichtman-election-prediction-system-explained/75352476007/

[4] https://www.newsweek.com/full-list-republicans-endorsing-kamala-harris-trump-1960937; https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-endorsement-letter-republicans-1956304

[5] https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/03/liz-cheney-harris-wisconsin-00182306

[6] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tim-walz-2024-vp-debate-closing-statement/

[7] https://www.euronews.com/2024/10/03/israel-says-damage-from-iranian-missile-attack-minimal-thanks-to-high-quality-defence

[8] https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/trump-suggests-he-would-make-a-deal-with-iran-if-elected-we-have-to/

[9] https://responsiblestatecraft.org/iran-nuclear-deal/

[10] https://www.yahoo.com/news/democrats-suspect-netanyahu-attempting-tilt-100000970.html

[11] https://www.npr.org/2024/10/04/nx-s1-5140179/kamala-harris-arab-americans-michigan

[12] https://www.commondreams.org/news/uncommitted-harris-lebanon

[13] https://www.npr.org/2024/03/04/1234822836/kamala-harris-benny-gantz-gaza-cease-fire-israel-hamas

The Struggle for the Soul of America: How Harris and the Dems Beat Trump

Posted on September 22, 2024 by Author: Bruce Berlin

Getting out the vote is the key to winning the presidential election. If Vice President Harris can get the constituencies that strongly support her out to the polls in great numbers, she will be victorious come November. That is particularly critical in the seven battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which will determine the outcome.

Forty-one million members of the Gen-Z generation will be eligible to vote in this year’s election.[1] Young voters under the age of 35 account for roughly 29% of the national electorate.[2] Today’s young people are among the most electorally engaged in recent decades.[3] They support Harris over Trump by 50% to 34%.[4] With a 16% margin in her favor, the Harris campaign must ensure that Gen Z has a huge turnout this election.

The issues that concern young voters the most are the economy, inflation and healthcare, including access to abortion.[5] With inflation now at 2.5%, the lowest level in three years,[6] and interest rates coming down 50 basis points for the first time in four years,[7] the Democrats could produce a big youth vote that would boost their chances this November.

Another very pro-Harris group is women. Harris leads Trump among women by 13 points (48% to 35%). Women favor Harris more than men across every racial and ethnic subgroup. On the other hand, Trump leads among men by only eight points (47% to 39%).[8]

The top three issues for all women in this election are the economy, healthcare/reproductive rights and the cost of housing.[9] Vice President Harris strongly supports a woman’s right to choose. In addition, she has reframed healthcare as an economic issue. She has proposed capping out-of-pocket drug costs for everyone at $2,000 per year and insulin copays at $35 per month, enhancing Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium support, speeding up Medicare drug price negotiation, and expanding efforts to cancel medical debt.[10]

Harris has addressed women’s concerns regarding the high cost of housing by proposing the construction of 3 million new affordable homes with tax initiatives for builders who create them. She would also provide $25,000 down payment assistance for 4 million first-time homebuyers.[11] With a consumer-friendly platform like that, Harris’s support among women can only increase, and hopefully, among men as well.

Regarding Black voters, Harris has a huge lead with 82% indicating they support her.[12] Black women, in particular, have her back. They are working diligently to bring more black men on board as well.[13] In the Hispanic community, Harris is favored by Latinos in Spanish-speaking and bilingual households by nearly 60% compared to 32% for Trump. In English-dominant homes, 51% of respondents supported Harris, while Trump stood at 38%.[14] Harris is strongly courting non-white communities.[15]

Overall, following the September 10^th debate, Harris leads Trump 50% to 45%, an increase of one or two points from prior to the debate.[16] The Vice President is addressing voters’ primary concerns, and, for the most part, they like what she is offering.

Of course, there are a few issues that are not so easy for Harris and the Dems to address. Like the Israeli-Hamas War and America’s reliance on non-renewable energy, esp. oil. So far, they have not impeded her expanding campaign to any significant degree.

Every day it’s looking more like Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States.

Bruce Berlin

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com. https://protectthevote.net/), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com.

Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/.

[1] https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/41-million-members-gen-z-will-be-eligible-vote-2024

[2] https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-economic-concerns-are-shaping-the-youth-vote-in-2024/

[3] https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/gen-z-voted-higher-rate-2022-previous-generations-their-first-midterm-election

[4] https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-half-gen-z-voters-support-kamala-harris-one-third-back-donald-tru-rcna169025

[5] https://www.vox.com/2024-elections/24157594/young-voters-are-just-normies-poll-biden-economy

[6] https://www.bankrate.com/banking/federal-reserve/latest-inflation-statistics/

[7] https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/18/fed-cuts-rates-september-2024-.html

[8] https://minnesotareformer.com/2024/09/12/harris-holds-a-slight-edge-over-trump-and-its-driven-by-women-poll-finds/

[9] https://www.glamour.com/story/election-2024-the-state-of-the-union-for-women

[10] https://www.kff.org/from-drew-altman/harris-is-reframing-health-as-an-economic-issue/

[11] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2024/9/18/what-housing-plans-do-us-presidential-candidates-trump-and-harris-offer

[12] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/09/09/harris-trump-biden-black-americans/

[13]

[14] https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/harris-campaign-aims-bolster-latino-support-spending-blitz-rcna171113

[15] https://www.lemonde.fr/en/united-states/article/2024/09/19/harris-continues-to-court-minorities-after-saying-she-s-working-to-earn-the-vote-of-black-men_6726551_133.html

[16] https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4876880-harris-widens-lead-over-trump-in-post-debate-poll/

The Struggle for the Soul of America: Could We Be Seeing the Beginning of a Blue Wave?

Posted on August 13, 2024 by Author: Bruce Berlin

It’s been about three weeks since VP Kamala Harris announced her candidacy for president. In that short period, Harris has raised over $310 million with 66% of it coming from first-time contributors.[1]

During that brief stretch, Harris has gone from down one or two points in the polls as President Biden’s running mate to up by four in each of the critical swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.[2] At the same time, the Cook Political Report has moved three other swing states, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, from “lean Republican” to tossups.[3]

Meanwhile, Harris is leading Trump by close to 20 points among registered voters under 30.[4] In a new August poll, she is also leading Trump by 9 points with Independent voters. That’s a 23-point turn around from a July poll where she was 14 points behind Trump.[5] And support for Harris among Black voters is surging as well.[6]

Perhaps, most importantly, support for Harris among women voters is building rapidly. A poll at the end of July showed Harris had gained 9 points with women in just three weeks. That poll found Harris was the choice of 50 percent of women voters, while Trump was preferred by just 39 percent.[7]

The momentum for the Harris-Walz campaign is exploding. The enthusiasm for this duo is palpable. While anything can happen in the next three months, the possibility of a blue-wave election appears more likely day by day.

Even Republicans are getting on board. A fair number of them “see Trump as anathema or the kind of existential threat to democracy that would compel them to cross party lines and who had bought into Biden as an acceptable alternative.”[8] The list includes former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld, former New Jersey Gov. Christine Todd Whitman, former Virginia Rep. Denver Riggleman, former Illinois Rep. Joe Walsh, former Trump press secretary Stephanie Grisham, and former Rhode Island Rep. Claudine Schneider.[9]

Everyday Republicans who care about the future of our democracy, are not obsessed with holding onto power, and are not part of the Trump cult are turning to the Harris campaign. Here is what a few of them are saying:

“I’m willing to lend my vote to the Democrats for as long as the GOP continues to be the party of forced religion, forced patriotism, forced birth, white nationalism, and isolationism.”

“Trump is just too divisive, and as a nation, we desperately need to come together and find shared solutions to the problems our country is facing.”

“How is this a difficult choice for any educated, ethical human being? Trump is a horrible person, utterly devoid of any political vision, ethical compass, or personal integrity. He’s a convicted felon. Adjudicated fraudster. Indicted for multiple other felonies. A vocal supporter of the world’s worst megalomaniac dictators.”[10]

More and more Americans are waking up to what is at stake in this election. The choice couldn’t be clearer. I’m envisioning a blue wave sweeping over our country this November.

Bruce Berlin

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com.

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[1] https://www.vox.com/politics/364964/harris-trump-fundraising-donations-campaign-2024

[2] https://www.yahoo.com/news/battleground-polls-show-harris-fundamentally-151052149.html; https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/10/us/politics/harris-trump-battleground-polls.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20240810&instance_id=131352&nl=from-the-times&regi_id=72679230&segment_id=174769&te=1&user_id=51750e72d4988f5b891f2289251150c2

[3] https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4818198-cook-political-report-arizona-georgia-nevada-tossups/

[4] https://ncnewsline.com/2024/08/02/young-voters-mobilize-for-kamala-harris-in-battleground-north-carolina/

[5] https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-poll-independents-donald-trump-1936028

[6] https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-candidacy-led-surge-black-voter-enthusiasm-make/story?id=112196882

[7] https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-gaining-women-voters-polling-shows-1932868

[8] https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/04/politics/republicans-for-harris-anti-trump-gop-voters/index.html

[9] Ibid.

[10] https://www.buzzfeed.com/morgansloss1/republicans-voting-for-kamala-harris-share-why