History demonstrates that American politics swings back and forth like the pendulum in an old grandfather clock. A century ago, during the Roaring 20s, the Republicans occupied the White House controlling public policy until 1933. Then the pendulum swung left as Democrat Franklin Roosevelt became president and launched the New Deal.
While the Republicans ruled in the 1950s when Dwight Eisenhower was president, the political pendulum didn’t truly swing back to the GOP until President Richard Nixon was elected in 1968. Though President Jimmy Carter’s one term interrupted Republican rule in 1977, it wasn’t until the election of Bill Clinton in 1992 that the pendulum again swung back to the Democrats.
Donald Trump’s election in 2016 marked a pivot towards the Republicans. While disrupted by Biden’s 2020 election, Trump is now trying his best to extend the swing to the right in his second term by slashing aide and social programs and expanding his autocratic control of the government. At the same time, however, there are signs that the pendulum is beginning to turn back toward the Dems. In fact, some believe there’s a possibility the country may even be on the verge of a Blue Tsunami.[1]
For one, the Dems have won most of the 2025 off-year elections. From New Jersey to Virginia to Georgia and, most recently, the Miami mayor’s race, the Democrats are not just winning, they’re crushing their GOP opposition. A Democrat hadn’t been elected mayor of Miami in 28 years![2]
For another, the nonpartisan newsletter Inside Elections recently shifted its analysis of 16 House races in next year’s mid-terms to favor the Democrats and only one in the opposite direction toward the Republicans. That includes races in the red states of Nebraska, Ohio and Tennessee.[3]
A third indication is what’s happening on the redistricting front. Several months ago, the Republicans thought their redistricting efforts were going to give then a significant electoral advantage in the House. However, Indiana’s conservative legislature recently rejected redistricting[4] and Missouri’s GOP plans have been put on hold by a petition requiring a statewide vote on redistricting.[5] Meanwhile, Texas’s attempt to shift five districts to the Republicans appears to not be working as planned. If Dems’ overperformance in House races this year is a fair signal of what lies ahead, it now appears that the blue party could win three of those five new seats.[6]
On the other hand, last month California voters approved a new redistricting map that could flip five House seats now held by Republicans to the Democrats.[7] But the Republicans have gone to court trying to block the new map from being implemented, claiming it’s unconstitutional.[8]
Then there’s the affordability dispute, which Trump calls a Democratic “hoax.” The almost certain extreme rise in healthcare costs with the elimination of the Obamacare subsidies the first of the new year will make affordability an even bigger issue than it already is. If affordability and the economy are voters’ main concerns in next year’s election, which is quite likely, current polling suggests “we’d be looking at a huge blue wave, with a swing 50% larger than in 2018.”[9]
Of course, circumstances could be substantially different when voting begins next fall. But, given the current state of affairs, a Blue Tsunami in the 2026 elections is a very distinctive possibility.
Bruce Berlin, J.D.
A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), and his new memoir, From Camden to Kathmandu. He is the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com. Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/
[1] https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/12/03/tennessee-special-election-trump-blue-wave-2026/87482063007/
[2] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/a-democrat-wins-miami-mayors-race-for-the-first-time-in-nearly-30-years
[3] https://rollcall.com/2025/12/09/house-race-ratings-midterm-elections/
[4] https://apnews.com/article/indiana-lawmakers-redistricting-final-vote-80e3e546fc7acec4a7bd7cd110787375
[5] https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/opponents-of-trump-backed-redistricting-in-missouri-submit-a-petition-to-force-a-public-vote/ar-AA1S1aEY?ocid=BingNewsSerp
[6] https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/14/politics/texas-redistricting-gop-latinos
[7] https://apnews.com/article/california-redistricting-congress-election-661fbe88aa65d858fdfb4f119f4f92b2
[8] https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/government/court-battle-begins-over-republican-challenge-to-california-s-prop-50/ar-AA1SoPyD?ocid=BingNewsSerp
[9] https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/affordability-voters-favor-democrats
