Category Archives: Electoral College

The Struggle for the Soul of America: Will Harris Ride a Blue Wave to Victory or Watch It Crash on the Shores of the Middle East?

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While most of the media is reporting that this year’s election will be very close, some experts see it differently. Northwestern University data scientist Thomas Miller has crafted a model for forecasting the 2024 presidential election that, he believes, is far more reliable than the polling that’s constantly cited in the media as the best guide to the outcome on Nov. 5. Miller’s model is based on 60 years of presidential election history.[1]

In 2020, Miller called the presidential race within 12 electoral votes, and correctly posited that the Democrats would sweep both Georgia Senate seats when the polls showed the Republicans significantly ahead. Miller’s data shows the Harris-Walz ticket far in the lead and the wide Democrat advantage settling into a remarkably stable pattern. He sees the Harris-Walz team winning by 66 electoral votes over the Trump-Vance ticket.[2]

Allan Lichtman, the American University political historian renowned for accurately predicting 9 out of the 10 most recent presidential elections, also predicts Harris will win this year’s White House race.[3]

The fact that a great many prominent Republicans have endorsed Harris provides further evidence that the Democratic ticket will prevail.[4] Former conservative Congresswoman Liz Cheney is even campaigning with Harris in the swing state of Wisconsin this week.[5] As Gov. Walz said at the recent Vice-Presidential debate, “Support of democracy matters…I’m as surprised as anybody of this coalition that Kamala Harris has built, from Bernie Sanders to Dick Cheney to Taylor Swift and a whole bunch of folks in between…”[6]

But all of Harris’s promising electoral prospects could quickly be swept away by the rising threat of an expanding war in the Middle East. Israel is now exploring how to retaliate against Iran for its recent missile attack on the Jewish state, which Israel acknowledges did minimal damage.[7] While President Biden is trying to temper Prime Minister Netanyahu’s response, he has yet to take any strong steps to stop the escalation of the conflict. And Harris appears to be going along with Biden’s timid approach.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump has said he would make a deal with Iran to avoid a full-blown war if he were elected.[8] Ironically, Trump killed an important nuclear deal with Iran when he was president.[9] But if Harris doesn’t break with Biden and put out her own plan for averting such a war, Trump could become the “peace candidate” and seriously damage Harris’s ability to beat him in November.

To win the presidency Harris cannot allow this to happen. She must provide a clear vision for not only preventing a larger Middle East war but also for creating real peace in the region that both Iran and Israel could accept. Harris must also recognize that the U.S. has to be firm with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. She cannot permit his efforts to escalate the conflict for political purposes deter her from taking a bold stance to achieve peace through diplomacy.[10]

First, Harris must listen to the concerns of Americans, especially in the critical battleground state of Michigan, who have family members living under U.S.-backed Israeli assaults in Lebanon and the occupied Palestinian territories. After repeated requests, she finally did meet with them on Friday, October 4th. [11] But for someone who says she wants to represent all the people, why did it take her that long?[12] Hopefully, their talk helped meet the Arab-Americans’ needs and encouraged them to support Harris.

At the same time, Harris needs to call for an immediate, permanent ceasefire throughout the Middle East, not just in Gaza as she did last March.[13] Simultaneously, she must provide conditions and incentives that would induce both sides to de-escalate the conflict and move toward a Middle East peace.

Incentives for the Israelis could include:

  1. Iran acknowledging Israel’s right to exist.
  2. Iran agreeing to cease all support for terrorist organizations like Hamas and Hezbollah.
  3. Iran agreeing not to engage in, encourage or support any hostilities toward Israel.
  4. Iran agreeing to influence Hamas to release the Israeli hostages.
  5. U.S. agreeing to supply Israel with the means to defend itself.

Incentives for Iran could include:

  1. U.S. and Israel agreeing not to attack Iran, including its oil fields and nuclear facilities.
  2. U.S. agreeing to help Iran build a peace economy.
  3. U.S. agreeing to help rebuild Gaza.
  4. Israel withdrawing completely from Gaza and agreeing to the right of Palestinians to have their own state.
  5. U.S. halting all shipments of offensive weapons to Israel.

The ball is in Harris’s court. She must demonstrate real leadership now to convince American voters that she’s the right person to lead our country in these critical times.

Bruce Berlin

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is a former U.S. Institute of Peace Fellow and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He is also the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America.  (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.) and the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics. Contact him at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com.

Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/.

[1] https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/harris-holds-66-electoral-vote-113900118.html

[2] Ibid.

[3] https://www.usatoday.com/story/graphics/2024/09/29/allan-lichtman-election-prediction-system-explained/75352476007/

[4] https://www.newsweek.com/full-list-republicans-endorsing-kamala-harris-trump-1960937; https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-endorsement-letter-republicans-1956304

[5] https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/03/liz-cheney-harris-wisconsin-00182306

[6] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tim-walz-2024-vp-debate-closing-statement/

[7] https://www.euronews.com/2024/10/03/israel-says-damage-from-iranian-missile-attack-minimal-thanks-to-high-quality-defence

[8] https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/trump-suggests-he-would-make-a-deal-with-iran-if-elected-we-have-to/

[9] https://responsiblestatecraft.org/iran-nuclear-deal/

[10] https://www.yahoo.com/news/democrats-suspect-netanyahu-attempting-tilt-100000970.html

[11] https://www.npr.org/2024/10/04/nx-s1-5140179/kamala-harris-arab-americans-michigan

[12] https://www.commondreams.org/news/uncommitted-harris-lebanon

[13] https://www.npr.org/2024/03/04/1234822836/kamala-harris-benny-gantz-gaza-cease-fire-israel-hamas

 

The Struggle for the Soul of America: The Problem with How a Vice-Presidential Candidate Is Chosen

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Kamala Harris’s first major task as the Democrats’ new presidential candidate is to choose a vice-presidential running mate. The most critical criterion in her decision is whether that person is qualified to be president should something happen that would require her VP to take over the presidency.

But there are other important criteria. For instance:

  1. Will they work well together?
  2. Are their policies compatible?
  3. Will the VP candidate help the Democrats win a swing state?
  4. Does the candidate have experience she lacks to bolster the ticket?
  5. Does he/she appeal to a segment of voters that will help win the election?

While all these factors make sense, this process can and sometimes does lead to a very undemocratic approach to determining presidential candidates.

For example, in 1988 Vice-president George H. W. Bush won the Republican nomination for president over Sen. Bob Dole and Pat Robertson. Bush went on to be elected president that year. But had Ronald Reagan chosen Dole to be his running mate rather than Bush in 1980, there’s a good possibility Dole would have been the Republicans’ presidential nominee and would have won the presidency in 1988.

In 2000, Vice-President Al Gore won the Democratic presidential nomination over Sen. Bill Bradley. But, if President Clinton had picked Bradley as his running mate instead of Gore in 1992, Bradley may very well have been the Democrats’ presidential candidate in 2000. And, he might have beaten George Bush for the presidency that year.

This year, Kamala Harris is the Democrats’ nominee for president mainly due to President Biden’s having chosen her as his running mate in 2020. If Biden had chosen Sen. Elizabeth Warren or Sen. Bernie Sanders as his vice president, both of whom he beat in the primaries, one of them would now likely be the Democrats’ presidential candidate.

The point is that presidents have undue influence over whom their party names as its next presidential candidate, and, thus, who the next president might be. That leaves millions of voters like you and me with very little say in the matter, which is extremely undemocratic.

Now let’s look at Harris’s most likely picks for vice president and how her decision might impact our future choices. Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro are probably at the top of her list since each of them would help Harris win a battleground state. And, all of them being white males, they would all help balance the Democratic ticket.

Some Democrats lean toward Gov. Shapiro because he could help win Pennsylvania with its 19 electoral votes, the largest of all the swing states. But his ardent support for Israel in its war against Hamas makes him a controversial choice that could dampen support from the progressive wing of the party.[1] Plus, he has been a governor for less than two years. Being only 51 years old, however, as Harris’s VP his chances of becoming president would be greatly enhanced provided Harris wins in November.

Sen. Kelly would only give the Democrats 11 electoral votes if they won Arizona. Additionally, the Dems could lose Kelly’s Senate seat to the Republicans in a special election. He also has been lukewarm about the Dems important labor bill, the PRO Act, which he finally just agreed to support.[2] On the other hand, Kelly is a national hero, having been a space shuttle commander and a combat vet.[3] As the husband of former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords, who suffered a severe brain injury during an assassination attempt, Kelly staunchly favors gun control. But, given Harris’s strong gun control advocacy,[4] choosing Kelly would not add anything to the ticket in that regard. Kelly, 60, would still be young enough to take the torch from Harris when she completes her presidency, assuming she wins the election.

Finally, Gov. Cooper, 67, is in contention for the VP nomination. He is about to complete his second term in the North Carolina governorship. Of the three leading VP candidates, he has the most experience working with Republicans. His ability to win elections while Republicans are winning other state offices makes him an attractive addition to the Harris campaign.[5] With 16 electoral votes, North Carolina would be a valuable catch for the Democrats. At age 75 eight years from now, he would likely be too old to run for the presidency at the end of Harris’s second term.

Unlike the other two top contenders, by naming Cooper her VP, Harris would not be putting her thumb on the scales when it came time to pick the next Democratic presidential nominee. That factor sets Cooper apart from the others. Along with his significant ability to attract Republican support, the fact that he would leave office and open up a more democratic presidential selection process is why I favor Gov. Cooper as Harris’s best VP pick.

Bruce Berlin

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com.

Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/.

[1] https://www.yahoo.com/news/one-vice-presidential-pick-could-100000459.html

[2] https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/potential-vp-pick-mark-kelly-backs-pro-labor/story?id=112244058

[3] https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/senate-democrats-say-mark-kelly-superb-vp-pick-anxiety-rcna163220

[4] https://www.thetrace.org/2024/07/kamala-harris-guns-violence-election/#:~:text=After%20her%20election%20to%20the,of%20federally%20licensed%20gun%20dealers.

[5] https://www.axios.com/local/raleigh/2024/07/23/harris-roy-cooper-vp-pick-running-mate-democrats; https://www.dukechronicle.com/article/2024/07/duke-university-roy-cooper-north-carolina-governor-vice-president-contender-option-kamala-harris-democratic-ticket-national-convention-nominee

The Struggle for the Soul of America: The Right to Vote a Critical 2024 Election Issue

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In my last blog, Where Do We Go from Here?,[1] I submitted that in order “to fix our democracy we must protect and expand the freedom to vote…” I suggested that would require at least these eight elements:

  1. The right of all citizens to vote and have their votes counted,
  2. Open primaries where everyone can vote regardless of party affiliation,
  3. The elimination of gerrymandering,
  4. The elimination of voter suppression efforts,
  5. Ranked choice voting (For an explanation of this process, see https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/LSB/LSB10837.)
  6. A Required minimum of 14 days of early voting all across the country,
  7. Easy access to drop boxes for voting in all districts, and
  8. Elimination of the Electoral College and the adoption of the national popular vote for president and vice president.

Since establishing all these reforms would take a great deal of time and resources, I asked my blog followers to prioritize the two or three they thought would be most likely to gain the greatest popular support and be achieved in the near term.

Though I did not receive enough responses to make any statistically relevant conclusions, the right of all citizens to vote and the elimination of voter suppression efforts were the two goals that people rated the highest. While the elimination of the Electoral College along with the institution of the national popular vote for president was also a priority, they are much more difficult to accomplish. Thus, less likely to be implemented any time soon.

Achieving the goals of establishing the right of all citizens to vote and eliminating voter suppression efforts would go a long way toward creating a level playing field in our elections. Making them top priorities in their 2024 platform would give Democratic candidates a clear advantage.

Ninety-five percent of both Democrats and Republicans believe “it is important that people who are legally qualified to vote are able to cast a ballot” according to a July 2021 Pew Research Center survey.[2]

At the same time, Democrats support making it easier for people to vote by a very wide margin over Republicans. Eighty-five percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say everything possible should be done to make voting easy. By contrast, just 28% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents say everything possible should be done to make voting easy.[3]

American democracy continues to be under attack by Trump and his followers. The future of our democracy will again be a critical issue in the 2024 election. Protecting the right to vote is central to its survival. The Democrats making the right to vote a top campaign issue will not only benefit their party, it could even determine whether our democracy survives.

Bruce Berlin

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com.

Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/. Join the movement to revive our democracy. Together we can save the soul of America.

[1] https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog/

[2] https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/07/22/wide-partisan-divide-on-whether-voting-is-a-fundamental-right-or-a-privilege-with-responsibilities/

[3] https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/04/01/share-of-republicans-saying-everything-possible-should-be-done-to-make-voting-easy-declines-sharply/

The Struggle for the Soul of America: Where Do We Go from Here?

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Last week’s blog featured Rick Hubbard’s 16-month walk across the country “to sound the alarm to the American people about the urgent need to fix our democracy.” (See https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog/.) Unfortunately, this past week Rick had to suspend his Walk.

Rick was about 40 miles east of Flagstaff, Arizona when he got word that Sally, his partner of 30 years, was very ill. As important as the Walk is to Rick, he knew that he had to go back to Vermont immediately to support her. At the same time, Rick vowed that he would return to his Walk as soon as he could. When that will be is anybody’s guess.

Prior to Rick’s suspending his Walk, I spoke to him about focusing the message of his cross-country journey. We agreed that the freedom to vote was the crucial point he needed to promote on his Walk. That is, to fix our democracy we must protect and expand the freedom to vote, which includes at least these elements:

  1. The right of all citizens to vote and have their votes counted,
  2. Open primaries where everyone can vote regardless of party affiliation,
  3. The elimination of gerrymandering,
  4. The elimination of voter suppression efforts,
  5. Ranked choice voting (For an explanation of this process, see https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/LSB/LSB10837.)
  6. A Required minimum of 14 days of early voting all across the country,
  7. Easy access to drop boxes for voting in all districts, and
  8. Elimination of the Electoral College and the adoption of the national popular vote for president and vice president.

The goal is to make the freedom to vote a fundamental right just as public education is in our country.

The outcome of 2024 election will be critical to the future of our nation. It will determine whether the country moves further toward autocracy and fascism, or more in the direction of a functioning democracy. Guaranteeing and expanding the freedom to vote will go a long way toward the latter objective.

Still, it is obvious that we will not achieve the eight elements listed above in the next two years. Rather than scattering our energy and resources by trying to accomplish all eight, I believe we would be better off concentrating on two or three in the short time before the 2024 election. Which two or three to go for would be determined by which ones are:

  1. most likely to gain the greatest popular support,
  2. most likely to be achieved, and
  3. most likely to secure our democracy.

I’d like to know what you think. Please email me your choices in ranked order at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com and I will publish the results in next week’s blog. To build a strong democracy movement, we need to establish our priorities. What are our most pressing goals? If you feel something is missing from the above list, feel free to add it. I look forward to hearing from you.

Bruce Berlin

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com.

Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/. Join the movement to revive our democracy. Together we can save the soul of America.

The Struggle for the Soul of America: Will Republican State Legislatures Overrule the Results of the Next Presidential Election?

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The current right-wing Supreme Court recently announced that in its next session it will hear the case of Moore v. Harper, a North Carolina case involving gerrymandered congressional district maps drawn by the state’s Republican-controlled Legislature. At the heart of this case is the radical doctrine labeled the “independent state legislature” theory.

Under the independent state legislature doctrine, state legislatures have absolute control over electoral votes in presidential elections. Harvard Law Professor Emeritus Laurence Tribe and Dennis Aftergut, counsel to Lawyers Defending American Democracy, explain that “according to this baseless notion, state legislatures can do whatever they want in manipulating elections no matter how extreme the results — principles of voter equality and fairness be damned, along with the state’s constitution, its governor and its courts.”[1]

In other words, if the Supreme Court adopts this theory, it could rule that a state legislature can disregard the vote of the people and award its state’s Electoral College votes to whomever it wishes. And four of the Court’s justices have already signaled support for this idea.[2] As Thom Hartmann recently observed, Article II, Section 1 of the Constitution describes the state legislature’s role in presidential elections, but “doesn’t even once mention the popular vote or the will of the people:

“Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress…”[3]

The operative word here is “Manner.” Under the questionable independent state legislature doctrine, a state legislature can employ whatever manner it so choses in determining which candidate receives its state’s electoral votes.

Tribe and Aftergut further argue that “Going into this November’s elections, 30 state legislatures are firmly in Republican hands, including in most of the battleground states that determine presidential election outcomes. Adopting the independent state legislature theory would amount to right-wing justices making up law to create an outcome of one-party rule.”[4]

That is why the 2022 elections for state legislators are vitally important. Some of those 30 Republican-controlled legislatures must be turned over to the Democrats in this November’s elections. If Americans who care about saving our democracy turn out in great number and elect Democratically controlled legislatures this fall in enough states to muster an Electoral College majority, then they would prevent the overturning of the 2024 presidential election under the independent state legislature doctrine.

Once again, it is up to us to spread the word and get out the vote! Democrats have so many critical issues supported by a clear majority of voters: abortion rights, climate change, gun control, voting rights and now saving democracy itself.

We must light a fire under all Americans who want our democracy to survive. We all must get involved and do everything we can to ensure that radical Republican state legislatures cannot overturn the will of the people in the 2024 presidential election.

Bruce Berlin, J.D.

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com.

Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/. Join the movement to revive our democracy. Together we can save the soul of America.

[1] https://www.yahoo.com/news/op-ed-supreme-court-poised-123049971.html

[2] Ibid.

[3] https://www.commondreams.org/views/2022/07/01/beware-supreme-court-laying-groundwork-pre-rig-2024-election

[4] https://www.yahoo.com/news/op-ed-supreme-court-poised-123049971.html

The Struggle for the Soul of America: Focus on January 6th Committee to Save Our Democracy

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The chances of the Democrats enacting voter protection bills to safeguard our elections now seem all but dead. Since Sens. Manchin and Sinema are unwilling to alter the filibuster in order to pass the Freedom to Vote and the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement bills, the Democrats must find another path to winning next November’s elections and saving our democracy.

Clearly that path will be uphill. The first mid-term elections after a new president enters the White House most often are won by the opposing party. With Biden’s approval ratings polling around 40% or below and his party’s legislative agenda stalled, it’s more than likely that the Republicans will take back the House and very possibly the Senate as well.

But there is still one promising prospect which could turn the November elections in the Democrats’ favor. In the next three to six months, the House Select Committee investigating the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol will hold televised hearings to provide the nation with the full story regarding what happened and who was responsible for the insurrection.

From the evidence made public to date, it now appears that the attack on the Capitol was part of a larger, coordinated conspiracy, quite possibly criminal, to overthrow the 2020 presidential election and install Trump as president. In the latest development, Republican electors from seven states that went for Biden submitted fraudulent Electoral College certificates to Congress and the National Archives certifying that Trump won in their states. The fact that these seven certificates were all identical, including using the same typeface, indicates their submission was coordinated, perhaps by the Republican Party or the Trump White House.[1]

No doubt more about how this all transpired will be revealed by the House Select Committee during its televised hearings. The Committee may be able to connect the dots to demonstrate a conspiracy to put the outcome of the election in those seven states in question. Submitting the fraudulent Republican Electoral College certificates to Congress alongside the legitimate certificates would put the outcome of the election in those states in question. That, in turn, would give Vice President Pence a basis for throwing out the results in those states, all of which voted for Biden, when he conducted the Electoral College count in Congress on January 6th.  Without those states’ electoral votes for Biden, Trump could be declared the winner of the election. This scenario also bolsters Trump’s claim of massive election fraud.

The Select Committee hearings may very well give a great many Americans reason not to vote to put a bunch of corrupt Republicans who supported or participated in this scheme in charge of Congress. Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD), a member of the committee, recently claimed that the hearings “will blow the roof off the House.”[2] Stay tuned.

Bruce Berlin, J.D.

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com.

Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/. Join the movement to revive our democracy. Together we can save the soul of America.

[1] https://www.inquirer.com/opinion/fake-electoral-college-certificates-january-6-investigation-20220113.html; https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/12/politics/trump-overturn-2020-election-fake-electoral-college/index.html

[2] https://news.yahoo.com/jan-6-hearings-are-going-to-blow-the-roof-off-the-house-rep-raskin-says-221500327.html

The Struggle for the Soul of America: Will Liz Cheney and the House Select Committee Bring Trump Down?

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(Please note: I’m taking a holiday break. This is my last post of the year. I’ll be back the first week of January. Happy Holidays!)

The House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the Capitol is alive and well. Mitch McConnell, the Republican minority leader of the Senate, recently added bipartisan credibility to the committee’s work when he said, “…what they are seeking to find out is something the public needs to know.”[1]

In fact, the committee is uncovering some very damning evidence regarding Trump and his cohorts’ involvement in the attack on the Capitol. Trump administration officials, including Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, possessed a PowerPoint that pressed for “the Trump administration to ‘declare electronic voting in all states invalid,’ as well as to declare a national emergency and seize ballots.” The document “called for then-Vice President Mike Pence to seat alternate electors from swing states Trump lost, reject electors from those states or delay the formal count.”[2]

The January riot was a means to that end. The purpose of the violent attack was to stop the Congress from counting the Electoral College vote confirming the result of the 2020 presidential election.[3] After months of falsely claiming that massive voter fraud cost him the election, Trump urged his supporters to march on the Capitol and “fight like hell.”[4] When they did, he was “loving watching the Capitol mob” do his bidding by disrupting Congress’s confirmation of the election results.[5]

But Rep. Liz Cheney, Republican co-chair of the House Select Committee, thinks Trump may have broken the law. Along with her colleagues on the committee, Cheney is now contemplating whether Trump criminally obstructed Congress.[6] If the committee so finds, it would likely refer the case to the Department of Justice for prosecution. And, if Trump were charged and found guilty, the Fourteenth Amendment could prevent him from ever holding public office again. Under the Amendment, Congress has the power to disqualify anyone who has already held a public office from holding any office if they participate in an “insurrection or rebellion” against the United States.[7]

Until very recently, Trump appeared to be gathering steam for another run at the Oval Office in 2024. But a funny thing happened on his way back to the White House. Conservative Liz Cheney, of all people, daughter of that dastardly Republican, former Vice-president Dick Cheney, stood up for the Constitution. Finally, a Republican with moral principles may just help save the nation from the ugliest of Americans, Donald Trump.

Bruce Berlin, J.D.

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com.

Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/. Join the movement to revive our democracy. Together we can save the soul of America.

[1] https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/mcconnell-says-jan-6-committee-s-findings-are-something-public-n1286194

[2] https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/jan-6-powerpoint-what-we-know-what-we-don-t-n1285910

[3] https://ballotpedia.org/Breach_of_U.S._Capitol_during_electoral_vote_count_(January_6,_2021)

[4] https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/01/06/metro/heres-what-trump-told-his-supporters-before-many-them-stormed-capitol-wednesday/

[5] https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-was-loving-watching-the-capitol-mob-white-house-official-2021-2

[6] https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-criminal-prosecution-charges-liz-cheney-january-6-obstruction-congress-2021-12?r=US&IR=T

[7] https://constitution.findlaw.com/amendment14/annotation15.html

The Struggle for the Soul of America: Will Illusive Bipartisanship Cripple Our Democracy?

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I feel like I’m living in two different worlds. Personally, I’ve gotten vaccinated, as have practically all my friends. The other night a group of us got together for dinner and reconnecting. Until then, we had been zooming with one another for over a year.

Last month my partner and I went to a public hot springs. Two weeks ago, we went out to dinner in a restaurant courtyard with another couple. Without masks! And yesterday, though masked, we were in a furniture store shopping for a new couch. After fifteen months of hibernation, our lives are finally getting back to almost normal. I’m feeling hopeful, optimistic.

At the same time, there’s a dark shadow hanging over our country. And it’s alarming. Not since the Civil War has our nation been so divided.[1] Whether the issue is forming a commission to investigate the attack on the Capitol,[2] protecting our right to vote,[3] or dealing with immigrants at our Mexican border,[4] Americans are at extreme odds with one another.

Some argue that the Democrats must forge ahead and pass legislation to resolve our pressing problems despite the opposition. Others, like Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.VA) and Kristen Sinema (D-Ariz.), contend that we must work in a bipartisan manner to truly solve these issues. But can we really bridge the huge schism in our nation or between the political parties? And, more immediately, do we have the time to reconcile our differences before our democracy is overrun by far-right extremists?

Events since last November’s election clearly indicate that we will not overcome the great divide in our nation any time soon. The Senate’s partisan failure to approve a bipartisan commission to investigate the attack on our Capitol is just the latest evidence of that. With Sen. Mitch McConnell admitting he is hellbent on obstructing the Biden presidency,[5] (just as he was with the Obama administration), it’s hard to imagine any real progress toward solving the nation’s problems in a bipartisan fashion.

The truth is our deepest divisions are political, rather than based in policy issues. A great majority of Americans – Republicans, Democrats, and Independents – support rebuilding our infrastructure, raising the minimum wage, providing affordable healthcare for all and more.

Biden’s best path forward may be to promote bipartisanship for a little while longer, if for no other reason than to demonstrate its futility. Manchin and Sinema apparently need more time to realize that the Republicans will never work with the Democrats on a true economic and social recovery, especially one that helps most Americans. They believe it’s not in their political interest. Just like their opposition to the bipartisan commission, Republicans are very willing to put politics above country.

The Senate Republicans’ filibuster of the bipartisan commission hopefully has helped Manchin and Sinema to see the light. Biden did learn how obstructionist the Republicans can be as VP under Obama with the Garland nomination to the Supreme Court and Obamacare, etc. So, he’s not going to be strung along forever.

Before the August recess, Biden will go for what he believes needs to be done regarding infrastructure, etc. that he can do through Reconciliation. By then, hopefully, Manchin and Sinema will understand bipartisanship is impossible with McConnell and his cohorts. Regarding voting rights and other bills that can’t be passed by Reconciliation, it will depend on these two Democrats agreeing to break the filibuster. At that point, they must understand that their continued support of the filibuster may well be a death knell for democracy. Millions of Americans’ right to vote will be in serious jeopardy due to a flood of Republican measures to suppress the vote.

Meanwhile, it’s up to all of us to keep the pressure on Biden, Manchin, Sinema and the rest of the Democrats to do what’s right and pass HR 1/S1, the For the People Act, and the John Lewis voting rights bill. Once again, our democracy is being put to the test and it’s on us to save it.

Bruce Berlin, J.D.

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics (now RepresentUs New Mexico), a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com.

Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog/. Join the movement to revive our democracy. Together we can save the soul of America.

[1] https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/19/politics/trump-divided-america-civil-war/index.html

[2] https://thehill.com/homenews/house/555147-poll-americans-split-on-jan-6-commission

[3] https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americans-oppose-many-voting-restrictions-but-not-voter-id-laws/

[4] https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/05/03/most-americans-are-critical-of-governments-handling-of-situation-at-u-s-mexico-border/

[5] https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/joe-biden/mcconnell-says-he-s-100-percent-focused-stopping-biden-s-n1266443

The Struggle for the Soul of America: A Time of Hope and Fear

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We are living on the brink. On the one hand, the Electoral College will vote to elect Joe Biden as our next president on Monday.[1] Trump’s days in the White House are clearly numbered. There’s light at the end of the tunnel.

In addition, an advisory panel to the US Food and Drug Administration voted to recommend emergency use authorization of Pfizer’s COVID vaccine on Thursday. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is expected to give final approval to the vaccine on Sunday.[2] Help is on the way.

On the other hand, it could be well into next year before most Americans receive a vaccination. There may not be enough vaccine for everyone for quite some time.[3] Even then, a substantial part of the population may not agree to be vaccinated given the conspiracy theories and claims the pandemic is a hoax.[4]

Meanwhile, Mitch McConnell and the Republican Senate are much more interested in shielding corporations from liability for negligently failing to protect their workers from contracting COVID than providing critical aid to cities and states trying to maintain essential services for their weary citizens.[5]

At the same time, 17 red states are supporting Texas’s Motion to File a Complaint in the Supreme Court to overturn Biden’s victories in Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. One hundred and twenty-five sycophant Republican members of Congress are backing the quixotic lawsuit which seeks to invalidate millions of votes in four battleground states which gave Biden the presidency.[6] Their crazed support for an unhinged president is destroying our democracy.

While the court challenge has practically no chance of succeeding, it does foment unrest among a great number of the Trump base. It also adds fuel to the Republican effort to undermine the Biden presidency. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) recently asserted that the Senate will not consider confirming any Biden nominations as long as the election results are in dispute.[7] This does not bode well for efforts to heal our nation or a successful Biden presidency.

And, if that weren’t more than enough headwinds for the new administration to overcome, Biden seems to be getting in his own way. He fully understands how critical winning the upcoming Georgia Senate runoffs is to accomplishing his legislative agenda. Still, Biden chose former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, a white male who served as Obama’s Secretary of Agriculture, to head the Agriculture Department over Rep. Marcia Fudge, a black woman with 12 years on the House agriculture committee.

Biden picked Vilsack despite the fact that he “owes a massive debt to top Black Democrats who were also pushing for Fudge — above all House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, whose well-timed endorsement very likely gave Biden the nomination.”[8] Naming Fudge would have boosted Stacey Abrams and other Democrats’ drive to achieve the huge black turnout Democrats need to prevail in the Georgia election.

Yet, all is not lost. Biden can accomplish a great deal even without the Democrats controlling the Senate, if he acts boldly with his power of executive orders. Lincoln freed the slaves with the Emancipation Proclamation. Franklin Roosevelt signed over 3,700 executive orders to help steer the country out of the Great Depression and mobilize the nation during World War II.[9]

Trump used executive orders to implement much of his agenda. Biden must, too. He can utilize these orders to marshal plans for expediting the distribution of the COVID vaccine, tackling climate change and getting the economy rolling again, among other priorities.

Our job is to keep the pressure on Biden to make sure that he employs his presidential powers fearlessly.  Let’s get to work.

Bruce Berlin, J.D.

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com.

Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/. Join the movement to revive our democracy. Together we can save the soul of America.

[1] https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/12/11/electoral-college-meeting-monday-hand-trump-loss-he-wont-accept/3807305001/

[2] https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-12-10-20-intl/h_4e54be4adce1922379b0d330a062361d

[3] https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/09/health/covid-vaccine-distribution-states/index.html; https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/12/next-six-months-will-be-vaccine-purgatory/617371/

[4] https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/12/10/vaccine-biden-trump-leadership-challenge/

[5] https://time.com/5920242/mcconnell-torpedoes-covid-19-relief-deal/

[6] https://www.axios.com/house-republicans-texas-lawsuit-election-a33e2081-89fa-442a-b1f6-eb1fcf9f4b16.html

[7] https://news.yahoo.com/ted-cruz-says-senate-likely-145300566.html

[8] https://www.yahoo.com/news/joe-bidens-agriculture-appointment-slap-104002491.html

[9]https://www.voanews.com/2020-usa-votes/trump-biden-will-embrace-executive-orders

Give Thanks for State Republican Leaders Who are Resisting Trump’s Efforts to Overturn the Election

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Congressional Republicans in Washington are trapped. While privately many of them think Trump should concede he lost the election, they fear that crossing Trump and his base by publicly stating their beliefs will damage their political futures.[1] Such statements could also hurt Republican chances of maintaining control of the Senate by dampening GOP turnout in the January 5th Georgia Senate runoff election.

Most Republicans don’t seem to have a problem with President Trump’s hell-bent efforts to undermine our democracy in order to stay in power.[2] In fact, some are actively assisting him while others are just silently acquiescing to his reckless disregard for the will of the voters.

Sen. Lindsey Graham, for instance, has taken the extremely unorthodox, and most likely unethical, step of calling election officials in several states regarding the legitimacy of certain ballots. Graham, a Trump ally, asked Georgia’s Republican secretary of state, Brad Raffensperger, “whether he had the power to throw out all mail ballots in counties where there were relatively high rates of rejection of mail ballots because their signatures did not match voters’ signatures on file.”[3]

Fortunately, Raffensperger resisted Graham’s overtures to manipulate the Georgia election results. While Graham denied it, Raffensperger felt the senator was pressuring him to throw out legally cast ballots.[4] After all, what legitimate business does a senator from another state have in scrutinizing the Georgia vote tally?

Meanwhile, Trump summoned Michigan Republican legislative leaders to Washington on Friday in an attempt to pressure them to nullify that state’s electoral college votes for President-elect Joe Biden. After the White House meeting, the GOP lawmakers who met with Trump “committed to letting that certification process play out and undercut the false claims of nationwide voter fraud that Trump and his allies have continued to peddle.” They stated that “we will follow the law and follow the normal process regarding Michigan’s electors, just as we have said throughout this election.”[5]

On Sunday, Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, denounced Trump’s actions: “A pressure campaign on state legislators to influence the electoral outcome is not only unprecedented but inconsistent with our democratic process. It is time to begin the full and formal transition process.”[6]

Republican legislative leaders in other critical swing states Biden won are sticking by their election results as well. In addition to Michigan and Georgia, GOP lawmakers in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have asserted that they would not intervene in the selection of electors to try to flip their state’s electoral votes to Trump. “Such a move would violate state law and a vote of the people, several noted.”[7]

While Mitch McConnell and most of his Republican Senate colleagues have supported Trump’s efforts to undermine the election, courts across the country in more than twenty cases have repeatedly found no merit in Trump’s challenges to the election. So, as Thanksgiving approaches, we can give thanks for the honest Republican state officials who have resisted pressure to interfere with the election results in their states.

Despite everything that Trump and his cohorts have done to subvert the election outcome, we can breathe a sigh of relief with the knowledge that he has failed. On January 20, 2021, Joe Biden will be sworn in as the 46th president of the United States.

Bruce Berlin, J.D.

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com.

Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/. Join the movement to revive our democracy. Together we can save the soul of America.

[1] https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-threats-cost-1.5810848

[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/19/opinion/trump-election-lies.html

[3] https://www.vox.com/2020/11/18/21571684/lindsey-graham-brad-raffensperger-georgia-ballots

[4] https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/16/lindsey-graham-georgia-2020-election-436910

[5] https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/20/politics/michigan-house-speaker-will-meet-trump/index.html

[6] https://www.adn.com/politics/2020/11/22/murkowski-calls-for-presidential-transition-to-begin-saying-trumps-attempts-to-influence-electoral-results-are-unprecedented/

[7] https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-donald-trump-legislature-pennsylvania-b199b2debc87fbb20612a48835bc0dba