The Struggle for the Soul of America: Biden, I Wouldn’t Bet Against Him Yet

Posted on February 24, 2024 by Author: Bruce Berlin

Joe Biden is in the race of his life. For an old guy, he still has some pretty good legs on him. The way he’s running right now, I wouldn’t bet against him despite my warning in last week’s blog post.[1]

First, take a look at how much campaign money Biden has raised. At the end of January, his campaign had $56 million on hand. Donald Trump only had $30 million on hand. In addition, much of Trump’s funds are going to pay off legal fees while Biden’s are all going into his campaign for re-election.[2] Of course, money isn’t the only important factor in this race.

Second, Biden does not have any serious competition for the Democratic nomination. Trump, however, is still fending off a primary challenger, former Gov. Nikki Haley, which is another drain on his campaign chest.[3] While she doesn’t have any real chance of winning the Republican nomination at this point, Haley’s increasingly sharp attacks on Trump make him more objectionable and help strengthen Biden’s case for his re-election.

Just the other day, Haley “jabbed Trump for taking three days to acknowledge Navalny’s death and then for failing to condemn Russian President Vladimir Putin for it. She’s cast her former boss as “ weak in the knees” when it comes to Russia. She’s slammed him for criticizing NATO at a time when many in the West see Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a threat to European stability. And…, Haley unleashed some of her most pointed criticism yet of Trump’s relationship with Putin:

“Trump is siding with a dictator who kills his political opponents,” Haley said. “Trump sided with an evil man over our allies who stood with us on 9/11. Think about what that told them.”[4] Not only does this get Biden off the hook, but it labels his opponent as a supporter of evil and further illustrates Trump’s preference for Russian autocracy over American democracy.

Third, the Republicans have been trying to undermine Biden’s re-election campaign for some time by impeaching the president. But their effort just ran into a brick wall with the FBI’s arrest of their star witness, Alexander Smirnov. He was arrested on charges of providing the FBI with fraudulent information. An FBI informant for over a decade, Smirnov was further discredited after a DOJ report Tuesday indicated he was not only lying to the FBI about Biden but had “contacts with multiple foreign intelligence agencies.”[5]

Those contacts included someone who controlled “groups that are engaged in overseas assassination efforts,” as well as a “high-ranking Russian foreign intelligence service officer.”[6]

Fourth, the recent demise of the Republicans’ own border security bill due to Trump’s opposition exposes their strict immigration demands as a sham. It demonstrates their fealty to the former president is greater than their desire to fix one of our country’s most critical problems. Biden was willing to give the Republicans just about everything they wanted regarding border security in order to fix our southern border problem. Trump rejected the bill so he could still use the lack of border security as a campaign issue. Now the tables are turned, and Biden and the Dems can use it against Trump and his Congressional lackeys.[7]

Then, fifth, there’s the abortion issue. The recent Alabama Supreme Court decision ruling frozen embryos are ‘children’[8] will only increase the indignation and voter turnout of the majority pro-choice electorate which overwhelmingly favors Bien and the Dems. Calling the ruling “outrageous and unacceptable,” Biden asserted that the decision was a direct result of the overturning of Roe v. Wade.[9]

Sixth and finally, Wednesday’s Quinnipiac University poll found that 49 percent of registered voters said they support Biden, compared to 45 percent who chose Trump. Despite his age and steadfast support of Israel in its war against Hamas, Biden leads Trump by four points.[10]

Of course, there is a long way to go between now and the November election. But, right now, all things considered, I wouldn’t bet against Biden.

Bruce Berlin

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com.

Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/. Join the movement to revive our democracy. Together we can save the soul of America.

[1] https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog

[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/21/us/politics/biden-trump-campaign-money.html

[3] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nikki-haley-announcement-2024-race-donald-trump-south-carolina/

[4] https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/22/in-south-carolina-haley-is-running-hard-on-russia-00142552

[5] https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-scramble-save-biden-impeachment-informant-1234972867/

[6] Ibid.

[7] https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/republicans-kill-border-bill-sign-trumps-strength-mcconnells-waning-in-rcna137477

[8] https://www.npr.org/2024/02/21/1232742485/alabama-supreme-court-frozen-embryos-ivf-in-vitro-fertilization

[9] https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-blasts-alabama-supreme-courts-outrageous-unacceptable-frozen/story?id=107454671

[10] https://news.yahoo.com/biden-holds-4-point-lead-194943812.html?.tsrc=fp_deeplink

The Struggle for the Soul of America: Biden’s Election Dilemma

Posted on January 26, 2024 by Author: Bruce Berlin

Like many progressives, I am very disturbed, if not outraged, by President Biden’s continued, unconditional support of Israel’s war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Since Hamas’s horrific attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, over 25,000 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip have been killed, the majority of whom were women and children.[1]

I support Sen. Bernie Sanders’s position in this critical matter. Sanders, who like me is Jewish, has called for the Senate to reject the Biden Administration’s supplemental funding bill. The senator explained that the bill “includes $10 billion of unconditional military aid for the right-wing Netanyahu government to continue its brutal war against the Palestinian people. Enough is enough. Congress must reject that funding. The taxpayers of the United States must no longer be complicit in destroying the lives of innocent men, women, and children in Gaza.”[2]

In addition to his position on Israel, other issues have contributed to Biden’s sinking poll numbers. Foremost among them are the lack of a sound immigration policy on our southern border and his presidential competence at age 81. As a result, his support among younger voters and minorities (especially Arab Americans), as well as progressives is eroding.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump has won the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries and appears to have all but locked up the Republican nomination for president. Still, Biden looks pretty good compared to the corrupt Trump who sexually abuses women[3] and may be a convicted criminal by the time next November rolls around.

Then there’s the real possibility of a third-party candidate like Kennedy or Manchin drawing votes away from Trump and/or Biden. So, the key to a Biden re-election may well be whether those disaffected Democratic voters support a third-party candidate, stay home, or hold their noses and vote for Biden.

Fortunately, Biden is receiving help from an unexpected source, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. The longer she stays in the race for the Republican nomination, the more Trump will be battered by her as well as Biden. By the time Haley runs out of money and Trump secures his party’s nomination, he will look even worse to independent voters as well as Haley’s supporters. Trump’s pressure to kill an immigration bill favored by Republicans so he can make border security a central campaign issue will only further lower his standing with those same voters.[4]

Additionally, Biden has to decide whether to stick with his current unpopular positions while taking some pep pills to enhance his image or make some policy changes to draw those disaffected voters back into the fold. Therein may lie the answer to who ultimately wins the presidency next fall. But all in all, the election is starting to look like Biden is a better bet than Trump.

Bruce Berlin

Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/. Join the movement to revive our democracy. Together we can save the soul of America.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war#:~:text=Since%20then%2C%20over%2025%2C000%20Palestinians,civilian%20casualties%20in%20its%20reports.

[2] https://www.sanders.senate.gov/press-releases/news-senator-bernie-sanders-calls-for-no-more-u-s-funding-for-netanyahus-illegal-and-immoral-war-against-the-palestinian-people/#:~:text=Bernie%20Sanders%20(I%2DVt.,Israel%2DGaza%20is%20not%20complicated.

[3] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/18/nyregion/trump-trial-e-jean-carroll.html

[4] https://georgiarecorder.com/2024/01/25/u-s-senate-republicans-insist-they-wont-bow-to-trump-demands-to-quit-immigration-talks/

The Struggle for the Soul of America: Biden Under Fire While Trump Has His Own Problems

Posted on January 18, 2024 by Author: Bruce Berlin

(Note: Since my computer was in the shop getting software fixes for some days, there was no blog post last week.)

While it’s still early, the 2024 elections look like a nail-biter. Unless one of them falls seriously ill or Trump ends up in prison before November, the presidential election will most likely be a tight race between President Biden and Donald Trump.

Usually, an incumbent president has an advantage in his bid for re-election. But only a third of those surveyed in a recent ABC News/Ipsos poll approved of President Biden’s job performance — a record low for any president in the last 15 years. Meanwhile, Trump’s approval rating is eight points higher than Biden’s.[1]

Still, Trump’s not in great shape either. A recent poll of Iowa voters conducted days before Monday’s caucuses found 43 percent of those who supported Nikki Haley said they would vote for Biden over Trump in a general election.[2]

Another sign of Trump’s general election weakness is a number of his former staffers speaking out publicly against him. Sarah Matthews, a press aide on Trump’s 2020 campaign and in the Trump White House who resigned on Jan. 6, 2021, noted, “I would support Biden over Trump…I won’t support someone who refused to participate in a peaceful transfer of power, tried to overthrow a free and fair election, and incited a mob to attack the U.S. Capitol.”[3]

At the same time, Biden’s strong support of Israel in its war against Hamas is definitely hurting his re-election chances. In a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, 57 percent of respondents disapproved of his handling of the war.[4] With over 24,000 Palestinian civilian deaths due to Israel’s massive bombings, Biden is being sued for complicity in Israel’s alleged commission of genocide in Gaza.[5]

Biden’s immigration policy at our southern border is also not popular. Many feel that too many poor, illegal immigrants are entering the country.[6] While lower, nagging inflation is yet another issue pulling his approval ratings down.

Then there’s Biden’s age. He sometimes appears unsteady on his feet or unsure of his words. He often does not present a strong leadership image. Two-thirds of Democratic-leaning voters want their party to nominate someone other than Biden for president.[7] Additionally, MSNBC pundit and former Republican Congressman Joe Scarborough noted that every Democrat he has spoken to privately believes President Biden is “too old” to run for reelection.[8]

Though there’s nothing he could do about his age, Biden and his Democratic colleagues seem unwilling or unable to change course regarding some of these other issues. This is particularly true when it comes to Israel. As a result, he is losing a good portion of the youth vote that got him elected in 2020. And they are not just frustrated with Biden, they are actually angry with him.[9]

Both candidates have their work cut out for them. Trump needs to figure out how to convince skeptical Republicans to stick with him. On the other hand, if Biden does not start listening to the people who elected him, he may not only fail to win this critical election, but he may also be responsible for losing American democracy to authoritarian rule.

Bruce Berlin

Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/. Join the movement to revive our democracy. Together we can save the soul of America.

[1] https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4408318-bidens-approval-rating-drops-to-new-low-poll/#:~:text=In%20an%20ABC%20News%2FIpsos,percent%20approved%20of%20his%20performance.

[2] https://www.yahoo.com/news/biden-may-help-republicans-against-110000920.html

[3] Ibid.

[4] https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/19/us/politics/biden-israel-gaza-poll.html

[5] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/14/us-president-biden-sued-for-complicity-in-israels-genocide-in-gaza

[6] https://cis.org/Arthur/Why-Biden-Implementing-Immigration-Policies-Few-Americans-Favor

[7] https://www.axios.com/2023/09/07/poll-biden-2024-second-term-democrat-voters-cnn

[8] https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4202366-scarborough-says-democrats-privately-say-biden-too-old-to-run/

[9] https://www.vox.com/politics/24034416/young-voters-biden-trump-gen-z-polling-israel-gaza-economy-2024-election

The Struggle for the Soul of America: Should Biden Run for Re-election?

Posted on September 13, 2023 by Author: Bruce Berlin

In a recent CNN poll, two-thirds of Democratic voters believed the Democrats should nominate someone other than President Biden in 2024. The biggest concern among the respondents was his age. If re-elected, the President would be 82 by the time he began a second term.[1]

Views of Biden’s performance in office are deeply negative in the new poll. His job approval rating stands at just 39%, and 58% say that his policies have made economic conditions in the US worse. Seventy percent say things in the country are going badly, and 51% say government should be doing more to solve the nation’s problems.[2]

While I do not fall in line with some of the above poll responses, I am now with the Democrats who want Biden to step aside and have the Party nominate someone else for president next year. Here are some pressing reasons for my decision:

First, I feel Biden is too old to lead the nation. We need new energy, fresh vision and vitality. If you can remember that far back, think about when the young John F. Kennedy ran for president in 1960. Like then, it’s now time for a new generation of leadership. Nancy Pelosi and her octogenarian deputies recognized that and stepped away from leading the House Democrats. Biden should do the same.

Second, the Democrats need to inspire voters, not just say we’re better than the other guy. This is especially true with getting out the Gen-Z youth vote which is critical to the Democrats’ election prospects. Biden does not generate enthusiasm among younger voters. In fact, he does not among a great many voters of all ages.

Third, in the latest poll, the leading Republican candidate, Donald Trump, is tied with Biden, despite the fact that Trump has been indicted four times.[3] With 91 felony counts pending against him, Trump’s nomination should, theoretically, provide Biden with the best shot at winning. But, if tying with Trump is the best he can do, what happens when the Republicans finally decide to nominate someone without all of Trump’s baggage, someone significantly younger with executive and foreign policy experience like former Gov. Nikki Haley?

Fourth, if the Republicans do nominate Haley, even for vice president, the Democrats will lose some moderate Republican women who were leaning Democratic due to the abortion rights issue. While clearly pro-life, Haley is taking a broader approach to abortion as she tries to hold onto those women voters. That includes encouraging adoption, providing contraception, and not criminalizing women who have the procedure.[4]

Fifth, Biden’s support is slipping among a key Democratic constituency, nonwhite voters. Biden now receives support from just 53% of registered nonwhite voters. In 2020, he won more than 70% of nonwhite voters.[5]

Democrats win when voter turnout is high. If young and nonwhite voters are not enthusiastic about the Democratic candidate, the turnout will not work in the Democrats’ favor. Add to that a woman on the Republican ticket and their gender advantage will be diminished as well.

Can the Democrats afford to take a chance with Biden when so much is at stake? Shouldn’t Democratic leaders, as well as the rest of us, be speaking out and pressuring Biden to step aside for the good of the country?

While there are a number of next generation Democrats who could take Biden’s place and win the White House, I favor Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. According to The New Yorker magazine, “she is a Democrat who fights and wins in one of the most competitive parts of the country.”[6] More about why Gov. Whitmer and the Democrats’ dilemma next week.

Bruce Berlin

Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/. Join the movement to revive our democracy. Together we can save the soul of America.

[1] [1] https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/07/politics/cnn-poll-joe-biden-headwinds/index.html

[2] Ibid.

[3] https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/biden-trump-tied-polls-rcna103893

[4] https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/09/us/politics/haley-abortion-2024-presidential-race.html

[5] https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/05/upshot/biden-trump-black-hispanic-voters.html?partner=slack&smid=sl-share

[6] https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/07/24/how-gretchen-whitmer-made-michigan-a-democratic-stronghold