The Struggle for the Soul of America: Political Pendulum Swinging Back Toward the Dems — Is 2026 Blue Tsunami Possible?

History demonstrates that American politics swings back and forth like the pendulum in an old grandfather clock. A century ago, during the Roaring 20s, the Republicans occupied the White House controlling public policy until 1933. Then the pendulum swung left as Democrat Franklin Roosevelt became president and launched the New Deal.

            While the Republicans ruled in the 1950s when Dwight Eisenhower was president, the political pendulum didn’t truly swing back to the GOP until President Richard Nixon was elected in 1968. Though President Jimmy Carter’s one term interrupted Republican rule in 1977, it wasn’t until the election of Bill Clinton in 1992 that the pendulum again swung back to the Democrats.  

            Donald Trump’s election in 2016 marked a pivot towards the Republicans. While disrupted by Biden’s 2020 election, Trump is now trying his best to extend the swing to the right in his second term by slashing aide and social programs and expanding his autocratic control of the government. At the same time, however, there are signs that the pendulum is beginning to turn back toward the Dems. In fact, some believe there’s a possibility the country may even be on the verge of a Blue Tsunami.[1]

            For one, the Dems have won most of the 2025 off-year elections. From New Jersey to Virginia to Georgia and, most recently, the Miami mayor’s race, the Democrats are not just winning, they’re crushing their GOP opposition. A Democrat hadn’t been elected mayor of Miami in 28 years![2]

            For another, the nonpartisan newsletter Inside Elections recently shifted its analysis of 16 House races in next year’s mid-terms to favor the Democrats and only one in the opposite direction toward the Republicans. That includes races in the red states of Nebraska, Ohio and Tennessee.[3]

A third indication is what’s happening on the redistricting front. Several months ago, the Republicans thought their redistricting efforts were going to give then a significant electoral advantage in the House. However, Indiana’s conservative legislature recently rejected redistricting[4] and Missouri’s GOP plans have been put on hold by a petition requiring a statewide vote on redistricting.[5] Meanwhile, Texas’s attempt to shift five districts to the Republicans appears to not be working as planned. If Dems’ overperformance in House races this year is a fair signal of what lies ahead, it now appears that the blue party could win three of those five new seats.[6]

            On the other hand, last month California voters approved a new redistricting map that could flip five House seats now held by Republicans to the Democrats.[7] But the Republicans have gone to court trying to block the new map from being implemented, claiming it’s unconstitutional.[8]

            Then there’s the affordability dispute, which Trump calls a Democratic “hoax.” The almost certain extreme rise in healthcare costs with the elimination of the Obamacare subsidies the first of the new year will make affordability an even bigger issue than it already is. If affordability and the economy are voters’ main concerns in next year’s election, which is quite likely, current polling suggests “we’d be looking at a huge blue wave, with a swing 50% larger than in 2018.”[9]

            Of course, circumstances could be substantially different when voting begins next fall. But, given the current state of affairs, a Blue Tsunami in the 2026 elections is a very distinctive possibility.

Bruce Berlin, J.D.

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), and his new memoir, From Camden to Kathmandu. He is the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com. Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/


[1] https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/12/03/tennessee-special-election-trump-blue-wave-2026/87482063007/

[2] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/a-democrat-wins-miami-mayors-race-for-the-first-time-in-nearly-30-years

[3] https://rollcall.com/2025/12/09/house-race-ratings-midterm-elections/

[4] https://apnews.com/article/indiana-lawmakers-redistricting-final-vote-80e3e546fc7acec4a7bd7cd110787375

[5] https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/opponents-of-trump-backed-redistricting-in-missouri-submit-a-petition-to-force-a-public-vote/ar-AA1S1aEY?ocid=BingNewsSerp

[6] https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/14/politics/texas-redistricting-gop-latinos

[7] https://apnews.com/article/california-redistricting-congress-election-661fbe88aa65d858fdfb4f119f4f92b2

[8] https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/government/court-battle-begins-over-republican-challenge-to-california-s-prop-50/ar-AA1SoPyD?ocid=BingNewsSerp

[9] https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/affordability-voters-favor-democrats

The Struggle for the Soul of America: It’s Never Too Late for the Democrats to Do the Right Thing

On March 31, 1968, President Lyndon Johnson announced that he would not run for re-election that fall. In his short time as president, Johnson achieved great advancements for the American people, including the Civil Rights Act of 1964, the Voting Rights Act of 1965, and the creation of Medicare and Medicaid. Still, in 1968, the Democratic Party and the country as a whole were very divided by race, class, ideology, and, of course, the Vietnam War.[1]

Despite his noteworthy accomplishments, Johnson’s public approval rating sat at only 36%. He was being challenged by members of his own party as well as a strong Republican candidate, Richard Nixon. Johnson realized the odds of his re-election were poor. As political historian Matthew Dallek explained, “LBJ had become the face of America’s divisions.”[2]

Fifty-six years later, President Biden’s situation is not much different than Johnson’s was. In his one term in the White House, Biden has achieved many good things, including rebuilding our infrastructure, significant gun violence prevention legislation, and combating the climate crisis.[3] Yet, his public approval rating stands at just 37%.[4] Like Johnson, many Democrats don’t want him to run for re-election and he is being challenged by a strong Republican candidate, Donald Trump. Biden has now become the face of America’s divisions as well.

Unlike Johnson, however, President Biden has failed to come to grips with the reality of his situation and the catastrophic consequences facing our country if his Republican opponent wins the presidency. But Thursday evening’s presidential debate was a stark wakeup call for the rest of the Democratic Party. The question is how will the Party respond.

For a hopeful answer, let’s turn to 1974 and the Republican Party’s response to Nixon’s failing presidency. Due to Nixon’s alleged involvement in the Watergate scandal involving a criminal break-in and subsequent cover-up, Nixon lost the support of many in the Republican Party as well as American voters in general. He was about to be impeached by Congress.

On Aug. 7, 1974, the leaders of the Republican Party, U.S. Sen. Barry Goldwater, R-Ariz., U.S. House Minority Leader John Rhodes, R-Ariz., and U.S. Senate Minority Leader Hugh Scott, R-Pa., went to the White House and made it clear to Nixon that his presidency was “doomed.”[5] Two days later, Nixon resigned the presidency.

Granted Biden’s situation is quite different. But what is similar is that Biden has lost the support of a great many members of his party.[6] Biden’s presidency may not be “doomed,” but his chances of re-election could be after his awful performance at Thursday’s debate.[7]

The leaders of the Democratic Party need to do what those Republican leaders did in 1974. Barak Obama, Bill Clinton, former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, Sen. Chuck Schumer, and Rep. Hakeem Jeffries with the support of First Lady Jill Biden must go to the White House and tell President Biden that his re-election is very much in peril, and he needs to withdraw from the race. Nixon said it best when he resigned, “…as President, I must put the interests of America first.”[8]

Unfortunately, two days after Biden’s terrible debate, none of the above-mentioned Democratic leaders are preparing to deliver that message to Biden. In fact just the opposite, they are all rallying around the president despite the fact that “59 percent of independent voters and 47 percent of Democratic voters said Biden should be replaced as the party’s presidential candidate. “[9]

The Democrats are rolling the dice by sticking with Biden. Though it’s an uphill battle, he may still be able to rejuvenate his campaign and beat Trump. And, honestly, they would also be gambling if they chose another candidate to lead the ticket. But selecting a new standard bearer at their convention would energize Democrats and give them a huge opportunity to win over those undecided voters in the swing states that will decide this election.

Yet, the truth is that it’s all up to Biden. He has enough delegates committed to him to secure the nomination if he wants it. What he decides will undoubtedly impact the election, but ultimately the fate of our democracy is in the hands of the American people.

Bruce Berlin

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com.

Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/.


[1] https://www.history.com/news/lbj-exit-1968-presidential-race

[2] Ibid.

[3] https://www.whitehouse.gov/therecord/

[4] https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-BIDEN/POLL/nmopagnqapa/

[5] https://www.azcentral.com/story/azdc/2014/08/03/goldwater-rhodes-nixon-resignation/13497493/

[6] https://www.npr.org/2024/06/05/nx-s1-4987296/young-voters-biden-gaza-inflation-abortion-trump-genforward-poll

[7] https://www.commondreams.org/opinion/biden-trump-threat-to-democracy

[8] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Nixon%27s_resignation_speech

[9] https://www.newsweek.com/biden-poll-democrats-debate-trump-1919143