Prime Minser Netanyahu | Breaking Big Money's Grip on America

While most of the media is reporting that this year’s election will be very close, some experts see it differently. Northwestern University data scientist Thomas Miller has crafted a model for forecasting the 2024 presidential election that, he believes, is far more reliable than the polling that’s constantly cited in the media as the best guide to the outcome on Nov. 5. Miller’s model is based on 60 years of presidential election history.[1]

In 2020, Miller called the presidential race within 12 electoral votes, and correctly posited that the Democrats would sweep both Georgia Senate seats when the polls showed the Republicans significantly ahead. Miller’s data shows the Harris-Walz ticket far in the lead and the wide Democrat advantage settling into a remarkably stable pattern. He sees the Harris-Walz team winning by 66 electoral votes over the Trump-Vance ticket.[2]

Allan Lichtman, the American University political historian renowned for accurately predicting 9 out of the 10 most recent presidential elections, also predicts Harris will win this year’s White House race.[3]

The fact that a great many prominent Republicans have endorsed Harris provides further evidence that the Democratic ticket will prevail.[4] Former conservative Congresswoman Liz Cheney is even campaigning with Harris in the swing state of Wisconsin this week.[5] As Gov. Walz said at the recent Vice-Presidential debate, “Support of democracy matters…I’m as surprised as anybody of this coalition that Kamala Harris has built, from Bernie Sanders to Dick Cheney to Taylor Swift and a whole bunch of folks in between…”[6]

But all of Harris’s promising electoral prospects could quickly be swept away by the rising threat of an expanding war in the Middle East. Israel is now exploring how to retaliate against Iran for its recent missile attack on the Jewish state, which Israel acknowledges did minimal damage.[7] While President Biden is trying to temper Prime Minister Netanyahu’s response, he has yet to take any strong steps to stop the escalation of the conflict. And Harris appears to be going along with Biden’s timid approach.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump has said he would make a deal with Iran to avoid a full-blown war if he were elected.[8] Ironically, Trump killed an important nuclear deal with Iran when he was president.[9] But if Harris doesn’t break with Biden and put out her own plan for averting such a war, Trump could become the “peace candidate” and seriously damage Harris’s ability to beat him in November.

To win the presidency Harris cannot allow this to happen. She must provide a clear vision for not only preventing a larger Middle East war but also for creating real peace in the region that both Iran and Israel could accept. Harris must also recognize that the U.S. has to be firm with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. She cannot permit his efforts to escalate the conflict for political purposes deter her from taking a bold stance to achieve peace through diplomacy.[10]

First, Harris must listen to the concerns of Americans, especially in the critical battleground state of Michigan, who have family members living under U.S.-backed Israeli assaults in Lebanon and the occupied Palestinian territories. After repeated requests, she finally did meet with them on Friday, October 4^th. [11] But for someone who says she wants to represent all the people, why did it take her that long?[12] Hopefully, their talk helped meet the Arab-Americans’ needs and encouraged them to support Harris.

At the same time, Harris needs to call for an immediate, permanent ceasefire throughout the Middle East, not just in Gaza as she did last March.[13] Simultaneously, she must provide conditions and incentives that would induce both sides to de-escalate the conflict and move toward a Middle East peace.

Incentives for the Israelis could include:

Iran acknowledging Israel’s right to exist.
Iran agreeing to cease all support for terrorist organizations like Hamas and Hezbollah.
Iran agreeing not to engage in, encourage or support any hostilities toward Israel.
Iran agreeing to influence Hamas to release the Israeli hostages.
U.S. agreeing to supply Israel with the means to defend itself.

Incentives for Iran could include:

U.S. and Israel agreeing not to attack Iran, including its oil fields and nuclear facilities.
U.S. agreeing to help Iran build a peace economy.
U.S. agreeing to help rebuild Gaza.
Israel withdrawing completely from Gaza and agreeing to the right of Palestinians to have their own state.
U.S. halting all shipments of offensive weapons to Israel.

The ball is in Harris’s court. She must demonstrate real leadership now to convince American voters that she’s the right person to lead our country in these critical times.

Bruce Berlin

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is a former U.S. Institute of Peace Fellow and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He is also the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America. (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.) and the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics. Contact him at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com.

Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/.

[1] https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/harris-holds-66-electoral-vote-113900118.html

[2] Ibid.

[3] https://www.usatoday.com/story/graphics/2024/09/29/allan-lichtman-election-prediction-system-explained/75352476007/

[4] https://www.newsweek.com/full-list-republicans-endorsing-kamala-harris-trump-1960937; https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-endorsement-letter-republicans-1956304

[5] https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/03/liz-cheney-harris-wisconsin-00182306

[6] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tim-walz-2024-vp-debate-closing-statement/

[7] https://www.euronews.com/2024/10/03/israel-says-damage-from-iranian-missile-attack-minimal-thanks-to-high-quality-defence

[8] https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/trump-suggests-he-would-make-a-deal-with-iran-if-elected-we-have-to/

[9] https://responsiblestatecraft.org/iran-nuclear-deal/

[10] https://www.yahoo.com/news/democrats-suspect-netanyahu-attempting-tilt-100000970.html

[11] https://www.npr.org/2024/10/04/nx-s1-5140179/kamala-harris-arab-americans-michigan

[12] https://www.commondreams.org/news/uncommitted-harris-lebanon

[13] https://www.npr.org/2024/03/04/1234822836/kamala-harris-benny-gantz-gaza-cease-fire-israel-hamas

President Biden’s recent withholding of offensive weapons from Israel created a bipartisan backlash. From House Speaker Johnson and Sen. Graham on the right to Sens. Sanders and Welch on the left, a broad spectrum of Congress as well as the American public opposes Biden’s position on Israel’s war against Hamas.

At the same time, it’s not really clear what the president’s position is. While withholding offensive weapons, Biden has just announced the U.S. is supplying Israel with another $1 billion in new arms to further its war in Gaza.[1] It would seem that sending more firepower to Israel would undercut any pressure the president is putting on Israel to agree to a ceasefire.[2]

Those on the political right believe the United States should provide unconditional support to Israel in its Gaza offensive to eliminate the Hamas terrorists. The problem with that position is it will not provide the intended result. According to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, an all-out Israeli offensive on the Gaza city of Rafah would provoke “anarchy” without eliminating Hamas.[3]

Blinken noted that while Israel may have some “initial success…at an incredibly high cost to civilians, but…one that is not sustainable.” He maintained that the Israelis “will be left holding the bag…because a lot of armed Hamas will be left, no matter what they do in Rafah.” Alternatively, if Hamas does “get out of Gaza…then you’re going to have a vacuum and a vacuum that’s likely to be filled by chaos, by anarchy, and ultimately by Hamas again.”[4]

Thus, it makes no sense for Biden to support unconditional aid to Israel. That would neither solve Israel’s Hamas terrorism problem nor the larger Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

On the other hand, those on the left calling for an immediate ceasefire have not offered a practical roadmap for resolving the overriding issues that led to the current war as well as the previous armed clashes over the last 75 years. While a ceasefire would save many lives, mostly Gazans, without meaningful, agreed-upon steps toward a true, lasting peace, it would just give Hamas time to regroup and strike again.

Unfortunately, the Israeli government led by Prime Minister Netanyahu has no interest in trying to resolve the larger issue of Palestinian self-rule in Gaza or the West Bank.[5] In fact, Netanyahu’s government does not even have a clear strategy for Gaza once the current fighting ends. The hardliners want the Israeli military to control Gaza indefinitely while the centrist faction of the Israeli leadership believes a non-Hamas, civilian government should be installed.[6]

Specifically, centrist Minister Benny Gantz has given Netanyahu an ultimatum. He is demanding that the prime minister develop a post-war strategy that must include forming a U.S.-European-Arab-Palestinian directorate in charge of civilian administration excluding Hamas in Gaza. The strategy must also include accepting the normalization deal with Saudi Arabia that the Biden administration has been working on. If Netanyahu’s cabinet does not approve such a strategy by June 8^th, Gantz and his National Unity party will withdraw from the government.[7] That could lead to the fall of Netanyahu’s government and new elections, hopefully breaking the current Israeli impasse over Gaza and the West Bank.

Sen. Sanders recently summarized the futility of the current situation when he observed: “I think at the end of the day, Hamas cannot be continuing to run Gaza and the Netanyahu government cannot continue to run Israel if we’re going to ever bring peace to that region.”[8] While President Biden likely agrees with Sen. Sanders, his actions send mixed messages and don’t appear to be helping to achieve this end.

Bruce Berlin

A retired, public sector ethics attorney, Berlin is the author of Breaking Big Money’s Grip on America (See breakingbigmoneysgrip.com.), the founder of New Mexicans for Money Out of Politics, a former U.S. Institute of Peace fellow, and the founder and former executive director of The Trinity Forum for International Security and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at breakingbigmoneysgrip@gmail.com. Subscribe to this blog at https://breakingbigmoneysgrip.com/my-blog-3/

[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-69013279

[2] https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-administration-steps-pressure-israel-cease-fire-hostage/story?id=110030018#:~:text=Interest%20Successfully%20Added-,Biden%20administration%20steps%20up%20pressure%20on%20Israel%20over%20cease%2Dfire,could%20derail%20cease%2Dfire%20talks.&text=Emergency%20workers%20said%20at%20least,bomb%20the%20southern%20Gaza%20town.

[3] https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2024/05/blinken-israel-offensive-rafah-would-not-eliminate-hamas

[4] https://www.yahoo.com/news/blinken-delivers-strongest-public-rebuke-051530150.html

[5] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-rejects-international-pressure-palestinian-state-2024-02-16/

[6] https://www.yahoo.com/news/hamas-war-splits-israels-cabinet-144841073.html

[7] https://www.axios.com/2024/05/18/benny-gantz-israel-netanyahu-gaza-war

[8] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bernie-sanders-benjamin-netanyahu-humanitarian-aid-to-gaza/#:~:text=Sanders%20called%20the%20situation%20in,is%20feeding%20the%20children%2C%20calling