TheUnited Stateshas been a staunch supporter of Israel since the establishment of the Jewish state in 1948 following the Holocaust. Whether Republicans or Democrats were running our government, we have consistently provided huge amounts of foreign aid to help develop and protect Israel. As a result, the U.S. has played a major role in sustaining Israel’s ability to dominate the Palestinian people in both Gaza and the West Bank.
Since last October’s attack by Hamas, there’s been increasing concern about whether Israel’s overwhelming military retaliation, killing thousands of Palestinians in Gaza, amounts to genocide. At the same time, facts on the ground indicate that Israel has created an apartheid regime on the West Bank following the 1967 Six-day War similar to what once existed in South Africa.
On a recent episode of HBO’s Last Week Tonight, John Oliver drilled down into Israel’s military occupation of the West Bank. Oliver concluded that an apartheid regime clearly does exist there.[1] Israel has had complete control over Palestinians’ every move since 1967 while allowing 450,000 Israelis to settle there, plus another 220,000 in East Jerusalem.[2]
From Truman to Biden, every American president has acquiesced in, if not tacitly supported Israel’s expanding colonization of the West Bank. With the possible election of Kamala Harris to the presidency this fall, however, there is a glimpse of hope that that could change. Harris has condemned Israeli settlers’ violence against Palestinians and called for holding them accountable. She has publicly criticized Israel on a number of issues as well as distancing herself from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.[3]
We will get a better sense of Harris’s willingness to back Palestinians’ call for justice and equality when she announces her pick for vice president in the next couple of days. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro is a finalist in the vice-presidential sweepstakes. A very strong supporter of Israel who has opposed a cease-fire in Israel’s war in Gaza, Shapiro has lost trust with the pro-Palestinian community.[4]
Choosing Shapiro to be her vice-presidential running mate would indicate Harris is not willing to move toward embracing the Palestinians’ cause. Putting Shapiro on the Democratic ticket would also severely hurt her chances of winning the critical swing state of Michigan with its large Muslim population. Just as important, it would dampen progressive Democrats’ support for Harris across the country since they oppose how the U.S. has strongly favored Israel while giving little assistance to the Palestinians.
Harris’s choosing Shapiro could be a fatal mistake for the Democrats’ chances of winning the White House in November.
Kamala Harris’s first major task as the Democrats’ new presidential candidate is to choose a vice-presidential running mate. The most critical criterion in her decision is whether that person is qualified to be president should something happen that would require her VP to take over the presidency.
But there are other important criteria. For instance:
Will they work well together?
Are their policies compatible?
Will the VP candidate help the Democrats win a swing state?
Does the candidate have experience she lacks to bolster the ticket?
Does he/she appeal to a segment of voters that will help win the election?
While all these factors make sense, this process can and sometimes does lead to a very undemocratic approach to determining presidential candidates.
For example, in 1988 Vice-president George H. W. Bush won the Republican nomination for president over Sen. Bob Dole and Pat Robertson. Bush went on to be elected president that year. But had Ronald Reagan chosen Dole to be his running mate rather than Bush in 1980, there’s a good possibility Dole would have been the Republicans’ presidential nominee and would have won the presidency in 1988.
In 2000, Vice-President Al Gore won the Democratic presidential nomination over Sen. Bill Bradley. But, if President Clinton had picked Bradley as his running mate instead of Gore in 1992, Bradley may very well have been the Democrats’ presidential candidate in 2000. And, he might have beaten George Bush for the presidency that year.
This year, Kamala Harris is the Democrats’ nominee for president mainly due to President Biden’s having chosen her as his running mate in 2020. If Biden had chosen Sen. Elizabeth Warren or Sen. Bernie Sanders as his vice president, both of whom he beat in the primaries, one of them would now likely be the Democrats’ presidential candidate.
The point is that presidents have undue influence over whom their party names as its next presidential candidate, and, thus, who the next president might be. That leaves millions of voters like you and me with very little say in the matter, which is extremely undemocratic.
Now let’s look at Harris’s most likely picks for vice president and how her decision might impact our future choices. Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro are probably at the top of her list since each of them would help Harris win a battleground state. And, all of them being white males, they would all help balance the Democratic ticket.
Some Democrats lean toward Gov. Shapiro because he could help win Pennsylvania with its 19 electoral votes, the largest of all the swing states. But his ardent support for Israel in its war against Hamas makes him a controversial choice that could dampen support from the progressive wing of the party.[1] Plus, he has been a governor for less than two years. Being only 51 years old, however, as Harris’s VP his chances of becoming president would be greatly enhanced provided Harris wins in November.
Sen. Kelly would only give the Democrats 11 electoral votes if they won Arizona. Additionally, the Dems could lose Kelly’s Senate seat to the Republicans in a special election. He also has been lukewarm about the Dems important labor bill, the PRO Act, which he finally just agreed to support.[2] On the other hand, Kelly is a national hero, having been a space shuttle commander and a combat vet.[3] As the husband of former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords, who suffered a severe brain injury during an assassination attempt, Kelly staunchly favors gun control. But, given Harris’s strong gun control advocacy,[4] choosing Kelly would not add anything to the ticket in that regard. Kelly, 60, would still be young enough to take the torch from Harris when she completes her presidency, assuming she wins the election.
Finally, Gov. Cooper, 67, is in contention for the VP nomination. He is about to complete his second term in the North Carolina governorship. Of the three leading VP candidates, he has the most experience working with Republicans. His ability to win elections while Republicans are winning other state offices makes him an attractive addition to the Harris campaign.[5] With 16 electoral votes, North Carolina would be a valuable catch for the Democrats. At age 75 eight years from now, he would likely be too old to run for the presidency at the end of Harris’s second term.
Unlike the other two top contenders, by naming Cooper her VP, Harris would not be putting her thumb on the scales when it came time to pick the next Democratic presidential nominee. That factor sets Cooper apart from the others. Along with his significant ability to attract Republican support, the fact that he would leave office and open up a more democratic presidential selection process is why I favor Gov. Cooper as Harris’s best VP pick.
Time is running out. The Democrats must determine who their candidates for president and vice president are very soon if they are to unite the party and beat Donald Trump and J.D. Vance in November.
I wrote the above paragraph just hours before the news broke Sunday morning that President Biden had withdrawn from the race for president. In so doing, Biden has sealed his place in history as a true patriot, and potentially the man who saved American democracy from Trump’s authoritarian takeover. As Biden wrote in his withdrawal statement, “I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down…”[1]
Biden has served our country well during the last 50 years as a senator, vice president, and president. He is stepping down at the height of his career as he rightly passes the torch to a new generation of leadership. His legacy as one of our most consequential presidents is now assured.
And yet, it’s still true: the Democrats have no time to lose. They have just four weeks to set the stage for their national convention at which time they must present a clear and compelling case to the American people for electing their chosen candidates over the Republican alternative.
Now the big question is who will replace Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket. The odds on favorite is Vice President Kamala Harris. The Biden-Harris apparatus for a presidential campaign is already up and running. Any other potential candidate would have a lot of work to do in a very short period of time to catch up to her. I doubt anyone will take that on at this late date. In fact, a number of her possible rivals for the nomination have already endorsed her. That includes California Gov. Gavin Newsom,[2] Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer[3] and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.[4]
Regardless of who the Democrats ultimately nominate, their run for the White House has gotten a big boost from Biden’s withdrawal. The youth and minority voters who were not enthusiastic about Biden’s campaign can now be energized by a much younger, more dynamic candidate without Biden’s baggage. Just in the nick of time, the Democrats have new hope for victory in November.
Saturday’s attempted assassination of Donald Trump will likely make it harder for President Biden to win the November election. And, before Saturday, he already had an uphill battle on his hands. So, I’ve concluded that Biden’s withdrawing from the race and putting Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket is the Democrats’ best path forward to beating Trump.
Abortion rights will be an overriding issue for women in this election. As a pro-choice woman, Harris leading the Democrats would boost their standing with Republican women. In fact, half of Republican women voters think abortion should be legal in all or most cases.[1]
Among all women, Biden and Trump are essentially tied. Harris, on the other hand, beats Trump 50 to 43% with women voters. Harris also runs better than Biden against Trump among people of color, Democrats, Independents, liberals, moderates, and conservatives according to a recent CNN poll.[2]
In a close race, suburban women in swing states may well decide the election. A recent poll found that most suburban women identify as pro-choice and believe that abortion should be legal. This same poll discovered that suburban women feel frustrated with the upcoming presidential election and 60% of them are dissatisfied with the choice of candidates.[3]
Replacing Biden with Harris could eliminate that dissatisfaction for enough women voters to put Harris in the White House. The same is true regarding disaffected younger voters as well as angry Arab Americans, especially in the critical swing state of Michigan, who oppose Biden’s strong support of Israel in its war against Hamas that’s killing thousands of innocent Gazans.
In addition, the attack on Trump makes gun violence a more prominent issue in this year’s election.[4] Democrats believe gun violence prevention may also be a decisive issue with suburban women.[5] As a former prosecutor and California attorney general, Vice President Harris has vital experience in this area and would be a more effective candidate in making the case for both gun violence prevention and abortion rights. This is especially true now that she oversees the White House Office of Gun Violence Prevention.[6]
The fact is suburban women voters are dissatisfied with both Trump and Biden.[7] A younger woman candidate with Harris’s background could energize women voters. Harris also does not have the baggage that Biden has regarding his age, the Israeli-Hamas War, and inflation. It’s time Obama, Clinton, Pelosi, Schumer and Jeffries go to the White House and tell Biden (and Jill) that he must withdraw from the race for the good of our country.
The next four months will be the most critical time for our country since at least the Civil War, if not in the entire history of the republic.
What’s at stake is the survival of American democracy. If Donald Trump is elected president in November, he has assured us that the United States will become an authoritarian country under his control.[1] His MAGA base has taken over the Republic Party and he’s gotten most other members of the party from Mitch McConnell on down to fall in line behind him. This after those same leaders had strongly denounced him after the January 6th insurrection.[2] And now he’s gotten the Supreme Court to back him up as well.
In Trump v. the United States, the Supreme Court sided with Trump over our country, ruling that a former president has absolute immunity from criminal prosecution for actions taken within his “conclusive and preclusive constitutional authority.” The Court also found that a president is entitled to presumptive immunity for all other official acts.[3] And so, Trump (and all presidents), is above the law. This decision further ensures that Trump would have the green light to become a dictator for all practical purposes if he wins the election. The American people cannot allow that to happen.
At the same time, President Biden’s re-election is even more in jeopardy now. While his recent debate performance was a disaster, his post-debate efforts to re-ignite his campaign have only raised more questions about his ability to win in November. And millions of voters are doubting his capacity to preside over the government for four more years. A CNN analysis concluded that Biden, the Democrats, and the entire country are in a growing political crisis.[4]
While Biden insists he’s in the race to stay, the pressure for him to withdraw is intensifying.[5] Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris is becoming the top choice to replace Biden in the race for the White House if Biden does drop out. Party insiders believe that she is better positioned to beat Trump than other possible Democratic nominees.[6] Still, others think an open convention is the way to go.[7]
Ironically, the Supreme Court immunity decision should help Biden or whomever the Democrats ultimately put at the top of their ticket. We already know that a second Trump presidency threatens our democracy. With the Court’s permissive ruling, it becomes an even more frightening danger and the most critical issue in this fateful election.
The question is: Which Democrat is the best messenger to effectively deliver that message to the American people and beat Trump in November? I and a great many other Americans who want to save and strengthen our democracy do not believe Biden is that person. We need a strong, clear voice from a new generation of leaders to call on all Americans to save our democracy from Trump’s authoritarian rule.
It may be Kamala Harris or one of several other prominent Americans, in or out of politics. But time is running out. The Democratic Party, including President Biden, has to come together very soon for the good of our nation. It’s the only party that can and wants to save our democracy. And we, the people, can’t just sit back and watch this movie play out. Call your Senators and Congressperson ASAP and tell them how you feel. Tell them it’s time for a new president from the next generation who will inspire the American people. A leader we can vote for with enthusiasm.
On March 31, 1968, President Lyndon Johnson announced that he would not run for re-election that fall. In his short time as president, Johnson achieved great advancements for the American people, including the Civil Rights Act of 1964, the Voting Rights Act of 1965, and the creation of Medicare and Medicaid. Still, in 1968, the Democratic Party and the country as a whole were very divided by race, class, ideology, and, of course, the Vietnam War.[1]
Despite his noteworthy accomplishments, Johnson’s public approval rating sat at only 36%. He was being challenged by members of his own party as well as a strong Republican candidate, Richard Nixon. Johnson realized the odds of his re-election were poor. As political historian Matthew Dallek explained, “LBJ had become the face of America’s divisions.”[2]
Fifty-six years later, President Biden’s situation is not much different than Johnson’s was. In his one term in the White House, Biden has achieved many good things, including rebuilding our infrastructure, significant gun violence prevention legislation, and combating the climate crisis.[3] Yet, his public approval rating stands at just 37%.[4] Like Johnson, many Democrats don’t want him to run for re-election and he is being challenged by a strong Republican candidate, Donald Trump. Biden has now become the face of America’s divisions as well.
Unlike Johnson, however, President Biden has failed to come to grips with the reality of his situation and the catastrophic consequences facing our country if his Republican opponent wins the presidency. But Thursday evening’s presidential debate was a stark wakeup call for the rest of the Democratic Party. The question is how will the Party respond.
For a hopeful answer, let’s turn to 1974 and the Republican Party’s response to Nixon’s failing presidency. Due to Nixon’s alleged involvement in the Watergate scandal involving a criminal break-in and subsequent cover-up, Nixon lost the support of many in the Republican Party as well as American voters in general. He was about to be impeached by Congress.
On Aug. 7, 1974, the leaders of the Republican Party, U.S. Sen. Barry Goldwater, R-Ariz., U.S. House Minority Leader John Rhodes, R-Ariz., and U.S. Senate Minority Leader Hugh Scott, R-Pa., went to the White House and made it clear to Nixon that his presidency was “doomed.”[5] Two days later, Nixon resigned the presidency.
Granted Biden’s situation is quite different. But what is similar is that Biden has lost the support of a great many members of his party.[6] Biden’s presidency may not be “doomed,” but his chances of re-election could be after his awful performance at Thursday’s debate.[7]
The leaders of the Democratic Party need to do what those Republican leaders did in 1974. Barak Obama, Bill Clinton, former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, Sen. Chuck Schumer, and Rep. Hakeem Jeffries with the support of First Lady Jill Biden must go to the White House and tell President Biden that his re-election is very much in peril, and he needs to withdraw from the race. Nixon said it best when he resigned, “…as President, I must put the interests of America first.”[8]
Unfortunately, two days after Biden’s terrible debate, none of the above-mentioned Democratic leaders are preparing to deliver that message to Biden. In fact just the opposite, they are all rallying around the president despite the fact that “59 percent of independent voters and 47 percent of Democratic voters said Biden should be replaced as the party’s presidential candidate. “[9]
The Democrats are rolling the dice by sticking with Biden. Though it’s an uphill battle, he may still be able to rejuvenate his campaign and beat Trump. And, honestly, they would also be gambling if they chose another candidate to lead the ticket. But selecting a new standard bearer at their convention would energize Democrats and give them a huge opportunity to win over those undecided voters in the swing states that will decide this election.
Yet, the truth is that it’s all up to Biden. He has enough delegates committed to him to secure the nomination if he wants it. What he decides will undoubtedly impact the election, but ultimately the fate of our democracy is in the hands of the American people.
With less than five months until likely the most consequential election in American history, I’ve been trying to figure out what I can do to help save our democracy.
For a while, I considered going to a swing state like Pennsylvania or Arizona and working on the Biden re-election campaign. In which case, I would probably be making phone calls to prospective Democratic voters or going door-to-door. Neither of those motivated me. Nor did I believe my doing them would have any significant impact on the election.
Of course, I could send donations to the Biden campaign and other important races. And I am doing that. But again, I realized that my rather small donations would hardly make any meaningful difference.
That’s not to say that any of the above wouldn’t assist Biden and the Democrats. Every little bit helps advance their campaign toward victory.
Then, the other day I asked myself: what do I like doing that could potentially have some influence on the election? The answer that immediately came to me was working on policy. But what policy?
That same day I read Thomas Friedman’s piece in the NYT, American Leaders Should Stop Debasing Themselves on Israel. Friedman advocated:
“This is ultimatum time. Biden should be telling Israel that it should accept Hamas’s key demand: Totally end the war now and withdraw from Gaza in exchange for the return of all Israeli hostages. Israel cannot think straight while Hamas holds its people.”[1]
Having spent considerable time and energy on U.S. policy toward Israel, I felt Friedman’s article was calling to me. If Biden could get Israel to end the war, it would be a big boost to his re-election prospects.
While I have no illusions that I alone could affect U.S. policy in any area, here was something I believed was worth my time and that I would feel good doing. I have already attended two meetings of a local American Friends of Combatants for Peace committee (AFCFP) which is focused on influencing U.S. policy in the Middle East. One effort proposed at the last meeting was meeting with NM Sens. Heinrich and Lujan and encouraging them to urge the Administration to forcefully push for a permanent ceasefire. Though I had thought I would rather work on the elections than continue participating with this group, suddenly I saw it was my path to making a meaningful contribution to Biden’s re-election as well as to saving our democracy.
AFCFP raises awareness, builds community, and acts to advance the joint efforts of Israelis and Palestinians working for a just peace in Israel and Palestine.[2] If you are interested in joining this effort, email AFCFP at office@afcfp.org, orwrite to greggmanoff@yahoo.com in Santa Fe. And, if this project does not motivate you, with less than five months until the election, find something that does and start working now to save our democracy before it’s too late.
I recently turned 79. Yes, it’s hard for me to believe, but it’s gradually sinking in. For example, I’ve noticed I’m definitely slowing down. As a result, I don’t always get my blog done every week. So, if you don’t get my blog some weeks, you’ll know I’ve slowed down again.
And that brings me to the larger issue of living life in balance. It’s a matter that confronts many of us at different times in our lives. For instance, we may spend too much time on the Internet at the expense of time with our friends and loved ones. Or we work too much and don’t leave enough time for relaxing and enjoying life.
It’s easy to do. We get caught up in one aspect of our lives causing us to ignore another interest or pay less attention to a valued relationship. Sometimes we don’t even realize what we’ve done. Once we do gain awareness, it may take us additional time to get back up to speed with a particular pursuit or to revive a neglected relationship.
Of course, there are many ways we may feel our lives are out of balance. Eating too much, sleeping too little, not getting enough exercise, watching too much TV, not reading enough, or not enough intimacy, to name just a few.
Personally, I feel the need for more time and space for my writing. In addition to my blog, the memoir I’ve been working on for over three years now requires more of my time if I’m ever going to finish it. I also want more time to deepen my relationship with my loving partner. To achieve these goals and get my life in greater balance, I have to figure out what to let go of or at least give less attention to. And that may not be so easy to do. But I’m working on it.
What about you? What do you want to re-balance in your life?
For my male readers, here’s something to help them in this re-balancing effort. A few friends and I are organizing a summer retreat with the theme, Living a Life in Balance. A New Mexican Men’s Wellness gathering, the retreat, with apologies to my female readers, is just for men. It will be held at Story Ranch in Mineral Hill, New Mexico, on the weekend of July 12 to 14. During the event, men will have the opportunity to explore where their lives are in and/or out of balance. It will be a time to step back and take a look at what is and what is not working for them.
In small groups, we will examine how we might get more of what we want in our lives to create greater balance and ease, while reducing or eliminating what we feel burdened by in our lives. You may have a good balance of fun, play, interpersonal connections, joy, quiet time, or whatever. On the other hand, you may feel a bit overwhelmed by too much work, a lack of connection, not enough time with your mate or family, busyness, alone time, or something else.
If you are a man thinking this is an issue worth exploring in your life, we hope you will join us next month. And please encourage other men you know to join us as well. We feel it will be a valuable experience for all. For details and registration, go to https://bit.ly/3yGKaEn.
Donald Trump is finally being held accountable. That is a good thing for democracy and the rule of law. Still, no one knows how Trump’s guilty verdict on all 34 felony counts will affect the November elections. Will it increase his support at the polls this fall? I seriously doubt it. If anything, the guilty finding will likely give a number of undecided voters a reason not to support him. How many go that route could be critical to the final outcome.
That does not mean, however, that those voters will support President Biden. They could stay home or vote for third-party candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. or someone else. Yet, anything that reduces Trump’s vote count should help Biden’s re-election bid.
Here are some other factors arising from the verdict that may significantly affect the election. First up is the sentencing of Trump on July 11. The harsher the sentence the more outraged Trump’s supporters will be. But I still don’t believe it will increase turnout for him in November. Rather, it will likely make the campaign uglier and turn voters off.
As important as Trump’s sentence is, presiding Judge Juan Merchan’s remarks at the sentencing hearing may be just as compelling. While a judge must remain impartial during the trial, he can be very revealing about his reasons for the sentence he is imposing. That is, Merchan can point to Trump’s outrageous behavior, his disrespect for the court and the jury, and his lack of remorse in explaining his decision for Trump’s sentence. The judge’s laying this all out in open court could sway some undecided voters not to support Trump.
Another interesting result of the verdict is how Trump’s team will handle the appeal. Until now, Trump’s strategy has been to delay all court proceedings for as long as possible, hopefully until after November. That would prevent any adverse decision from hurting his election prospects. But now that he has been found guilty, Trump may very well reverse strategies. That is, he might move for a quick appeal on the chance that an appeals court would reverse his guilty verdict before the election. While not likely, a desperate Trump might try to pull that off to improve his chances of being elected.
Then there’s the Republican National Convention beginning four days after Trump is sentenced. Given the strong support for Trump from most Republicans following the jury’s verdict, it appears that Trump will still be the Party’s nominee for president. I can’t believe the convention’s ignoring the verdict and going full tilt for a convicted felon will go over well with swing voters still trying to decide for whom to vote. By the same token, those undecided voters may not be able to stomach voting for other down-ballot Republicans who want a felon to be our next president. It’s hard to imagine how this goes well for Trump and his Republican Party.
Finally, there’s the overriding issue of the survival of American democracy. The Republicans are trying to convince the public that this whole affair is just about politics. As Trump’s former vice president, Mike Pence, put it: “The conviction of former President Trump on politically motivated charges is an outrage and disservice to the nation.”[1] Really?
Isn’t everything Trump does politically motivated to win the presidency, give him authoritarian power, and eliminate any opposition to his authority? Trump’s conspiring with Michael Cohen and others to conceal the fact that he had sex with a porn star while his wife was home caring for their newly born child was motivated by his desire to win the 2016 election. If moderate Republican women and others had known the truth before they voted, Hillary Clinton may very well have been our 45th president. Our world would be a lot different today under those circumstances. But conspiring to conceal facts that could change the outcome of a presidential election is just politics according to most Republicans. Why should the American people care?
Well, the DOJ during Trump’s administration cared enough to prosecute Michael Cohen for the same campaign finance violations. He was found guilty and sentenced to three years in prison.[2] Why shouldn’t the leader of the conspiracy be treated the same way? Biden and the Democrats need to make that perfectly clear to every voter before Trump steals another election.
No one knows for sure who will win the election this November. It’s still five and a half months away. Much will happen between now and then which could alter the outcome. Here are twelve critical factors that will likely play a role in determining who wins the election.
The Trump court trials
At this point, Trump’s New York hush money trial is probably the only one that will return a verdict before the November election. Despite all the media attention, the case will likely not have a significant impact on the election results, regardless of the outcome. Most voters have already made up their minds about Trump and the verdict will not change many voters’ opinions. At the same time, the strong evidence regarding Trump’s involvement in the January 6th insurrection could influence swing voters even though that trial will probably not occur before the election.
The Youth Vote
The youth vote will matter. It is a vital component of President Biden’s path to re-election. According to a March Youth Poll by Harvard’s Institute of Politics, “If the presidential election were held today, President Biden would outperform former President Trump among both registered (50% Biden, 37% Trump) and likely young voters under 30 (56% Biden, 37% Trump).” This is true despite Biden’s approval ratings on major issues being in the 20 and 30 percentiles.[1]
The Minority Vote
A recent Pew poll indicates 77% of Black voters say they would vote for Biden, well below the 92% he received in 2020.[2] Only 52% of Hispanic voters say they support the president.[3] That is 14% lower than the Hispanic vote Biden received in 2020.[4] This could be particularly troublesome for the president in swing states with large Hispanic voter populations like Arizona (25%)[5] and Nevada (20%).[6] Democrats need to do more to bolster their support among black and Latino voters.
The Israeli-Hamas War
This war is a real wildcard. Right now, the war is hurting Biden, particularly with the youth and minority voters, and aiding Trump. If Biden can help orchestrate a permanent ceasefire in the next few months, it likely would bring many of those voters back into his camp. If the war drags on into the fall, Biden’s re-election will become more doubtful.
Inflation and the Economy
As for inflation and the economy, it’s not a winner for Biden and the Democrats. These issues are at the top of many voters’ concerns. If inflation goes down significantly, Biden’s electoral stock will go up. Still, inflation is not likely to get any worse, so it shouldn’t make matters more difficult for the president. That is true for the economy as well. However, while the economy has improved significantly, voters for the most part have a negative view of it. Biden needs to showcase how much he’s done to improve people’s lives as well as what more he will do if he’s re-elected.
Immigration Reform and Border Security
The need for immigration reform and border security are issues the Republicans have highlighted. But Trump’s opposition to the bipartisan bill to secure our southern border continues to prevent the implementation of a reasonable solution.[7] Again, Biden and the Democrats must make it very clear to the voting public that Trump and his pawns in Congress are responsible for blocking a good bipartisan bill that would have gone a long way toward securing our southern border and fixing our immigration system.
The Candidacy of RFK Jr.
In a recent poll, the presidential candidacy of RFK Jr. hurts Trump more than Biden by a couple of percentage points.[8] In a close race like this one, it could make a difference. But I doubt it will be as significant as the votes of Nikki Haley’s supporters or suburban women.
Nikki Haley’s Supporters
The fact is that seven swing states will decide this election. In the largest swing state, Pennsylvania, Haley received over 16% of its recent primary vote.[9] That was two months after she had already dropped out of the race. In the purple state of Arizona, Haley got nearly 20% of the Republican primary vote.[10] While Haley just declared she will vote for Trump in November, the Atlantic’s David Frum points out:
“Most of Haley’s supporters voted for her as a way to stop Donald Trump. Haley’s announcement today that she intends to vote for Trump won’t raise their opinion of him; it will only lower their opinion of her.”[11]
It’s a good bet many of the Republican primary voters who voted for Haley in the swing states will not be voting for Trump.
Abortion Rights and Suburban Women
The large segment of the population who have abortion rights high on their list of election issues will bolster the Biden campaign.[12] The battle over the right to an abortion has energized Democrats and will increase voter turnout. It probably is Biden’s best issue. Moderate Republican and Independent suburban women who support abortion rights and are turned off by the corrupt former president will help boost Biden. Together, they could put Biden over the top in those critical swing states.[13]
The Supreme Court
The U.S. Supreme Court has been overtaken by radical justices thanks to Trump’s three appointments to the Court. Along with the other right-wing justices, they are responsible for eliminating the Constitutional right to an abortion.[14] In addition, they are continuously chipping away at our civil and personal rights, like voting rights and gun safety protections. If Trump wins the election, we likely could see more extreme right appointments which would dominate the Court for several decades. This possibility should further energize a broad range of the electorate to vote for Biden and Democratic senators.
The Survival of Democracy
Finally, there’s the overarching matter of saving our democracy. Trump has made it clear that he admires dictators like Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un. He has openly declared his fascist inclinations.[15] We must take Trump at his word. The great majority of Americans support our democratic form of government. Biden and the Democrats must demonstrate that voting for them is the only way to guarantee the future of American democracy.
Despite his shortcomings, Biden is our best and only hope at this point. Putting it all together, he might be a better bet at being re-elected after all.
Breaking Big Money's Grip on America 